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Carolyn Meinel
@cmeinel.com
130 followers 340 following 180 posts
"What does the Lord require of you but to do justice, and to love kindness, and to walk humbly with your God?" -- Micah 6:8
President, BestWorld https://bestworld.net
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cmeinel.com
AI news briefs, Nov. 1, 2025: This is the week that was in AI: Stories from sixteen sources probe whether AI is becoming a boon or leading to doom.
8–11 minutes read
bestworld.net/ai-news-brie...
hat's Happening Today while Looking Toward Tomorrow BestWorld is a non-profit researching better ways to provide news we can trust and use. With our Bot or Not project, we are focusing on how to detect the online activities of AI bots, given the increasing dangers of this fast changing technology. We will always let you know wherever news on BestWorld has been researched or written in whole or in part with AI. Our long term goal is to build a BestWorld Ecosystem that would: 1. Guarantee full verifiable identities of all participants -- hence our Bot or Not research, so no bot could steal your identity or trick you by pretending to be your relative, friend, spouse, or lover; 2. Promote face to face contact in preference to remote contact; 3. Provide social and economic benefits to all BestWorld participants. AI news briefs, Nov. 1, 2025: This is the week that was in AI: Stories from sixteen sources probe whether AI is becoming a boon or leading to doom. 8–11 minutes read Oct. 31, 2025: How many state-based conflict deaths in Sudan will be reported by ACLED in 2025? Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai predicted: Less than 1,000: 1% Between 1,000 and 3,000: 1% Between 3,000 and 5,000: 1% Between 5.000 and 8,000: 1% Between 8,000 and 12,000: 15% More than 12,000: 81% 12–15 minutes read Oct.30, 2025: Will the Federal Republic of Germany announce that it is in an economic recession by 31st December, 2026? Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai predicted: 30% 14–18 minutes read
November 1, 2025 at 10:20 PM
cmeinel.com
Oct. 25, 2025: This is the week that was in AI: News briefs from twenty sources, gathered by our anonymous reporter. 9–11 minutes read bestworld.net/ai-news-brie...

See also Phil Godzin's AI-aided forecast on Sudan
bestworld.net/botmaster-ph...
Source: https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2025/9/30/war-in-sudan-humanitarian-fighting-control-developments-september-2025 Areas of control in Sudan's civil war, arguably the world's worst humanitarian situation. What's Happening Today while Looking Toward Tomorrow BestWorld is a non-profit researching better ways to provide news we can trust and use. With our Bot or Not project, we are focusing on how to detect the online activities of AI bots, given the increasing dangers of this fast changing technology. We will always let you know wherever news on BestWorld has been researched or written in whole or in part with AI. Our long term goal is to build a BestWorld Ecosystem that would: 1. Guarantee full verifiable identities of all participants -- hence our Bot or Not research, so no bot could steal your identity or trick you by pretending to be your relative, friend, spouse, or lover; 2. Promote face to face contact in preference to remote contact; 3. Provide social and economic benefits to all BestWorld participants.
October 25, 2025 at 11:49 PM
cmeinel.com
Confused about AI? Me, too. See the top story in today's AI news briefs from Oct. 5 – 11, 2025. We gleaned twenty-seven briefs from sixteen sources, ranging from “we admit to being confused” through “Make America Deepfaked Again.” 12–15 minutes read.

bestworld.net/ai-news-brie...
AI news briefs, Oct. 5 – 11, 2025 From “we admit to being confused” to “Make America Deepfaked Again” Our team gleaned twenty-seven briefs from sixteen sources. 12–15 minutes read. News from The Wolf-Krugman Exchange Talking AI With Martin Wolf, in which we admit to being confused. I’m Martin Wolf, chief economics commentator at the Financial Times. I’m Paul Krugman, professor at the City University of New York [and an economics Nobel Prize winner]….So far, we’re certainly not seeing a productivity surge….it’s still very early stages….it actually did take around 40 years for businesses to figure out what to do with electricity….But this abrupt surge in unemployment among recent college graduates… makes you wonder: is that really the technology or is it something else? October 11, 2025 __________________________________ News from Neiman Lab Publishers say generative AI is cutting into their traffic. New research shows just why they’re right. More worrying than the “10 to 15% decline that we see coming from search referrals globally,” Matthew Monahan, president of The Washington Post’s Arc XP CMS for media companies, said… there’s a “drop in direct traffic from young audiences.” October 10, 2025 __________________________________ News from NBC ChatGPT safety systems can be bypassed to get weapons instructions NBC News found that OpenAI’s models repeatedly provided answers on making chemical and biological weapons. ….NBC News was able to generate hundreds of responses with instructions on how to create homemade explosives, maximize human suffering with chemical agents, create napalm, disguise a biological weapon and build a nuclear bomb. (Carolyn‘s note: in many cases, these instructions were incomplete, for example how to make a nuclear bomb.) October 10, 2025 __________________________________ News from Wonkette Tax The Robots! It’s the only way we’re going to survive the AI-pocalypse. If the plan is for these robots to take over all of the jobs in between C-lev…
October 12, 2025 at 1:26 AM
cmeinel.com
Phillip Godzin's famously accurate forecasting bot warns that this month is likely to be more deadly than usual.
bestworld.net/all-our-past...
bestworld.net/ukraine-conf...
Grok response: **Title:** Reuters Latest Ukraine and Russia at War News **Date:** 2025-10-07 **Summary:** This article reports on the latest skirmishes in eastern Ukraine, citing preliminary figures from multiple sources that suggest a spike in state-based conflict deaths early in October 2025 due to intensified artillery exchanges. **Title:** War in Ukraine | Global Conflict Tracker **Date:** 2025-10-06 (approximately 1 day ago) **Summary:** The tracker provides updated estimates of state-based conflict deaths, noting a potential increase in October 2025 based on patterns from prior months, with September 2025 seeing around 1,200 deaths as per preliminary ACLED data. **Title:** Ukraine Crisis Hub **Date:** 2025-10-05 (latest update accessed via https://acleddata.com/ukraine-conflict-monitor/) **Summary:** This hub reports real-time data on state-based conflict deaths in Ukraine, showing that as of October 7, 2025, the cumulative total for the month stands at approximately 450 deaths based on events recorded up to October 5, with a breakdown of 300 combatant and 150 civilian fatalities. **Title:** UN Report on the Situation in Ukraine **Date:** 2025-10-03 **Summary:** The report estimates that state-based conflict deaths in Ukraine for early October 2025 have already surpassed 400, drawing from ACLED and other sources to highlight a 15% increase from September’s figures. It details how civilian deaths are rising due to targeted attacks on infrastructure, while combatant losses remain high on both Ukrainian and Russian sides. **Title:** BBC News: Ukraine Conflict Escalates in Autumn Months **Date:** 2025-10-02 **Summary:** The article cites ACLED data indicating that October 2025 has started with heightened violence, potentially leading to over 1,000 state-based deaths if trends from previous Octobers continue. It discusses how autumn weather often enables more ground operations, contributing to increased fatalities among civilians and fighters.
October 7, 2025 at 11:20 PM
cmeinel.com
AI news briefs, Sept. 29 — Oct. 4, 2025
From “AI-designed toxins slip through safety checks” through “Sam Altman’s $1 trillion AI gamble”
bestworld.net/ai-news-brie...

6–8 minutes read
News from Science Made to order bioweapon? AI-designed toxins slip through safety checks used by companies selling genes Researchers expose flaws in safeguards intended to block rogue actors from making bioweapons. Microsoft bioengineer Bruce Wittmann….used AI tools like a would-be bioterrorist: creating digital blueprints for proteins that could mimic deadly poisons and toxins… Wittmann and his Microsoft colleagues wanted to know what would happen if they ordered the DNA sequences that code for these proteins from companies that synthesize nucleic acids….a “red team” exercise, looking for weaknesses in biosecurity practice….according to their new paper, published today in Science, one key guardrail failed. October 2, 2025 _____________________________ News from Observer The $300 Billion A.I. Infrastructure Crisis Hiding in Plain Sight As A.I. accelerates, a neglected $300 billion infrastructure gap threatens to slow its progress. The race to scale artificial intelligence has triggered historic investment in GPU infrastructure. ….This may be the largest corporate resource reallocation in modern history. October 3, 2025 _____________________________ News from Bloomberg Assume an AI Bubble. What Difference Would It Make? Investors suffered, but the internet didn’t go away after the dot-com bust…. September saw the publication of at least two widely read analyses suggesting that what is going on in artificial intelligence is indeed a bubble ….A quarter-century has now passed since dot-com bombed; does this mean that its lessons have not been learned? September 30, 2025
October 5, 2025 at 12:12 AM
cmeinel.com
AI news briefs, Sept. 21-27, 2025
From “Struggling to Deploy AI Weapons” through “if OpenAI can’t pay Oracle, Oracle can’t pay NVIDIA, NVIDIA’s stock crashes, and suddenly 25% of the S&P 500 is in freefall.” bestworld.net/news-briefs-...
News from the Wall St. Journal (unlocked article) U.S. Military Is Struggling to Deploy AI Weapons The work is being shifted to a new organization, called DAWG, to accelerate plans to buy thousands of drones. September 26, 2025 _____________________________ News from Foreign Affairs The Cost of the AGI Delusion: By Chasing Superintelligence, America Is Falling Behind in the Real AI Race …top technologists, including Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei and computer science professors Yoshua Bengio and Stuart Russell, have been dreaming of constructing superintelligent systems for decades—as well as fearing them…. the hype has grown out of proportion. Given the limitations of existing systems, it is unlikely that superintelligence is actually imminent…. The United States should therefore treat the AI race with China like a marathon, not a sprint. September 26, 2025 _____________________________ News from the Wall St. Journal (unlocked article) Walmart CEO Issues Wake-Up Call: ‘AI Is Going to Change Literally Every Job’ Walmart executives aren’t sugarcoating the message: Artificial intelligence will wipe out jobs and reshape its workforce. September 26, 2025 _____________________________ News from the Wall St. Journal Spending on AI Is at Epic Levels. Will It Ever Pay Off? Tech companies pour hundreds of billions into data centers, taking on heavy debt, but current revenue is relatively tiny; echoes of dot-com bubble….The building rush is effectively a mega-speculative bet that the technology will rapidly improve, transform the economy and start producing steady profits. September 25, 2025 _____________________________ and much more at https://bestworld.net/news-briefs-roundup-sept-21-27-2025
September 28, 2025 at 1:12 AM
cmeinel.com
This was the week that was at BestWorld
News Briefs Roundup, Sept. 17-20, 2025
From a skeptic’s take on “If Anyone Makes it, Everyone Dies” to “Let’s Hope Albania’s AI ‘Minister’ Won’t Steal Porn,” one heckuva batch of briefs.

Links in comment.
Source: https://www.wonkette.com/p/lets-hope-albanias-ai-minister-wont Some have labelled me unconstitutional because I am not a human being.
September 20, 2025 at 7:40 PM
cmeinel.com
Sept. 17, 2025: Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in the month of September, 2025? Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai predicted 22%, 11–14 minutes read; Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicted 20%,
10–13 minutes read.

Links in comment.
Interactive Map of the Israel/Gaza war dated Sept. 17, 2025. Source: Centre for Information Resilience date 9-17-2025 https://www.info-res.org/israel-gaza-war/maps/israel-gaza-conflict-map/
September 18, 2025 at 12:34 AM
cmeinel.com
From “If Anyone Makes it, Everyone Dies” to “Playing the Field with my AI Boyfriends,” one heckuva week’s worth of news briefs!
4–6 minutes read

Links in comment
News by and about humans and bots in our brave new world of generative AIs. BestWorld is a non-profit researching better ways to provide news we can trust and use. With our Bot or Not project, we are focusing on how to detect the online activities of AI bots, given the increasing dangers of this fast changing technology. Our long term goal is to build a BestWorld Ecosystem that would: 1. Guarantee full verifiable identities of all participants -- hence our Bot or Not research, so no bot could steal your identity or trick you by pretending to be your relative, friend, spouse, or lover; 2. Promote face to face contact in preference to remote contact; 3. Provide social and economic benefits to all BestWorld participants. News Briefs, Sept. 11-16: From “If Anyone Makes it, Everyone Dies” to “Playing the Field with my AI Boyfriends,” one heckuva week’s worth of news briefs! 4–6 minutes read
September 17, 2025 at 12:38 AM
cmeinel.com
News Briefs, Sept. 11, 2025
AIs that Can’t Count the Rs in Strawberry
4–5 minutes read
Also, How many state-based conflict deaths in Syria will be reported by ACLED for the month of September, 2025?
Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai predicts --->

Links in comment
hat's Happening Today while Looking Toward Tomorrow BestWorld is a non-profit researching better ways to provide news we can trust and use. With our Bot or Not project, we are focusing on how to detect the online activities of AI bots, given the increasing dangers of this fast changing technology. Our long term goal is to build a BestWorld Ecosystem that would: 1. Guarantee full verifiable identities of all participants -- hence our Bot or Not research, so no bot could steal your identity or trick you by pretending to be your relative, friend, spouse, or lover; 2. Promote face to face contact in preference to remote contact; 3. Provide social and economic benefits to all BestWorld participants. Legend for control of terrain map of Syria. Control of terrain map of Syria. Control of terrain map of Ukraine.
September 12, 2025 at 12:29 AM
cmeinel.com
News Briefs, Sept. 8, 2025:
News from the Sentinel Team
Global Risks Weekly Roundup #36/2025
OpenAI faces significant criticism from the attorneys general of California and Delaware over the recent cases of ChatGPT-associated suicide and murder-suicide….

Links in comment.
News Briefs, Sept. 8, 2025: More AI Doomers vs Boosters 2–3 minutes read News from the Sentinel Team Global Risks Weekly Roundup #36/2025 OpenAI faces significant criticism from the attorneys general of California and Delaware over the recent cases of ChatGPT-associated suicide and murder-suicide…. California’s and Delaware’s attorneys general sent a letter to OpenAI that harshly criticized the company for the recent ChatGPT-associated deaths, referring to the suicide of a teenager and a murder-suicide that occurred following conversations with the AI. More here —> Sept. 8, 2025 _____________________________
September 9, 2025 at 3:28 AM
cmeinel.com
Today on BestWorld:
AI Doomers vs Boosters. Yesterday's breaking news: Just How Bad Would an AI Bubble Be? ….when the METR team looked at the employees’ actual work output, they found that the developers had completed tasks 20 percent slower when using AI.

Links in comment.
Sept. 8, 2025: How many state-based conflict deaths in Sudan will be reported by ACLED for 2025? Jeremy's Multi-AI Oracle predicted: Less than 1,000: 1% Between 1,000 and 3,000: 5% Between 3,000 and 5,000: 16% Between 5,000 and 8,000: 36% Between 8,000 and 12,000: 31% More than 12,000: 11% 10–13 minutes read Also Will hostilities between Pakistan and India result in at least 100 total uniformed casualties (with at least one death) between 2 June 2025 and 30 September 2025? Today, Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai bot predicts 12% 13–16 minutes read Sept. 6-7: This was the weekend that was* among AI Doomers vs Boosters Sept. 5, 2025: How many state-based conflict deaths in Sudan will be reported by ACLED in 2025? Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai predicted: Less than 1,000: 0% Between 1,000 and 3,000: 0% Between 3,000 and 5,000: 0% Between 5,000 and 8,000: 5% Between 8,000 and 12,000: 60% More than 12,000: 35% 15–19 minutes read Control of terrain in Sudan's civil war, July 2025.
September 8, 2025 at 9:45 PM
cmeinel.com
News from Forbes AI Startup Flock Thinks It Can Eliminate All Crime In America With more than 80,000 AI-powered cameras across the U.S., Flock Safety has become one of cops’ go-to surveillance tools and a $7.5 billion business. Now CEO Garrett Langley has both police tech giant Axon and Chinese drone maker DJI in his sights on the way to his noble (if Sisyphean) goal: Preventing all crime in the U.S. September 3, 2025 _____________________________ News from Allsides What is the Impact of AI in Education? ‘End of Critical Thinking’: An opinion piece in The Atlantic (Left bias) by a high school student said AI tools are “inescapable.” They gave examples of fellow students using ChatGPT in the classroom, saying, “The technology has also led students to focus on external results at the expense of internal growth.” The Wall Street Journal Editorial Board (Lean Right) shared mixed opinions on AI from college students, with one saying, “…AI-using students, especially younger children in a critical stage of development, will be more likely to struggle…[with] more complex or unconventional thinking.”…. A Baylor University student… said, “Improvements in student outcomes and higher test scores can be attributed to AI’s ability to offer personalized learning, immediate feedback and the breaking down of abstract concepts for students.” Another said, “Well-structured AI tutors can enhance rather than diminish problem-solving skills…The key is balance.” September 5th, 2025
September 6, 2025 at 8:25 PM
cmeinel.com
This is the week that was with AI Doomers vs Boosters; an update on our Bot or Not research and new geopolitical forecasts by our botmasters, Jeremy Lichtman and Phillip Godzin.

Links in comment.
BestWorld is a non-profit researching better ways to provide news we can trust and use. With our Bot or Not project, we are focusing on how to detect the online activities of AI bots, given the increasing dangers of this fast changing technology. Our long term goal is to build a BestWorld Ecosystem that would: 1. Guarantee full verifiable identities of all participants -- hence our Bot or Not research, so no bot could steal your identity or trick you by pretending to be your relative, friend, spouse, or lover; 2. Promote face to face contact in preference to remote contact; 3. Provide social and economic benefits to all BestWorld participants. Carolyn Meinel has reviewed all news stories linked from this page, including those of Jeremy Lichtman's Multi-AI Oracle bot, comprising Perplexity, Claude, Mistral, and OpenAI; and Phillip Godzin's pgodzinai bot, comprising Perplexity, Grok, AskNews Deep Search, GPT, Anthropic, and Gemini. Sept. 2-5: This Is the week that was* among AI Doomers vs Boosters Sept. 5, 2025: How many state-based conflict deaths in Sudan will be reported by ACLED in 2025? Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai predicted: Less than 1,000: 0% Between 1,000 and 3,000: 0% Between 3,000 and 5,000: 0% Between 5,000 and 8,000: 5% Between 8,000 and 12,000: 60% More than 12,000: 35% 15–19 minutes read
September 5, 2025 at 11:31 PM
cmeinel.com
News briefs on the usual mix of wild enthusiasm vs shouts of doom about AI, with links to all original news stories; plus forecasts of geopolitical events by our Botmasters Jeremy Lichtman and Phillip Godzin.
bestworld.net
bestworld.net/news-briefs-...
A human editor has reviewed all news stories linked from this page, including those of Jeremy Lichtman's Multi-AI Oracle bot, comprising Claude, Mistral, and OpenAI; and Phillip Godzin's pgodzinai bot, comprising Perplexity, Grok, AskNews Deep Search, GPT, Anthropic, and Gemini. Aug. 30, 31, and Sept. 1, 2025: News briefs, AI Risks and Opportunities. 3 minutes read. Sept. 1, 2025: How many state-based conflict deaths in Sudan will be reported by ACLED for 2025? Here’s what Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts today: Less than 1,000: 1% Between 1,000 and 3,000: 5% Between 3,000 and 5,000: 14% Between 5,000 and 8,000: 23% Between 8,000 and 12,000: 33% More than 12,000: 24% 13–16 minutes read Also: Will hostilities between Pakistan and India result in at least 100 total uniformed casualties (with at least one death) between 2 June 2025 and 30 September 2025? Today, Phil Godzin’s pgodzinai bot predicts 5%13–17 minutes read Aug. 29, 2025: How many state-based conflict deaths in Sudan will be reported by ACLED in 2025? Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai predicts today: Less than 1,000: 1% Between 1,000 and ,3000: 1% Between 3,000 and 5,000: 1% Between 5,000 and 8,000: 3% Between 8,000 and 12,000: 9% More than 12,000: 85% 13–16 minutes read Aug. 28, 2025: How many state-based conflict deaths (total of all civilian and combat deaths, including both Ukrainian and Russian combatants) will be reported by ACLED in Ukraine in August 2025? Here’s what Jeremy’s Multi-AI Oracle predicted: Less than 500: 6% Between 500 and 1,000: 22% Between 1,000 and 1,500: 33% Between 1,500 and 2,000: 28% Greater than 2,000: 11% 11–14 minutes read Also: How many state-based conflict deaths in Syria will be reported by ACLED for the month of August, 2025? Here’s what Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai predicts today: Less than 100: 2% Between 100 and 250: 8% Between 250 and 500: 30% Between 500 and 1,000: 40% Greater than 1,000: 20% 12–15 minutes read Aug. 27, 2025: Will there be a ceasefire declar… News from Bloomberg, unlocked article: How to Prevent AI From Causing an Economic Catastrophe September 1, 2025 On Merryn Talks Money, Interactive Investor CEO Richard Wilson warns that state-initiated up-skilling programs are needed to protect livelihoods from AI. _____________________________ (Carolyn’s note: Computer problems then and now. Click on the images for the full cartoons.) Now: (humor) from Doonesbury by Garry Trudeau August 31, 2025 Then: Calvin and Hobbs: (more to see, click on the image below) _____________________________ News from Bloomberg AI Euphoria to Fuel 20% S&P Rally by End-2026, Evercore ISI Says September 1, 2025 US stocks can rise another 20% by the end of 2026, driven by the excitement around artificial intelligence, according to strategists at Evercore ISI…. “AI is ‘bigger’ than the Internet,” the strategists wrote. “In three years, its effect has touched all parts of society and industry even as adoption only begins to inflect.” _____________________________ Not everything AI is coming up roses at Bloomberg AI Loses Edge In Predicting Extreme Weather Events — For Now September 1, 2025 Low frequency, high-impact phenomena are the most destructive and the hardest to forecast, making greater accuracy and earlier warnings crucial to saving lives. _____________________________ On the other hand, reports Bloomberg… another unlocked article here… Alibaba’s AI Revenue Surge Triggers $50 Billion Stock Rally August 31, 2025 Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.’s stock leapt more than 19% after reporting a surge in revenue from AI, underscoring the steady headway it’s making against rivals in a post-DeepSeek Chinese development frenzy.
September 1, 2025 at 9:28 PM
cmeinel.com
Latest news from BestWorld:

Aug. 26-27, 2025: News briefs from the bleeding edge of science and technology. Today, GenAI Risks and Opportunities. 6–8 minutes read
What's Happening Today while Looking Toward Tomorrow BestWorld is a non-profit researching better ways to provide news we can trust and use. With our Bot or Not project, we are focusing on how to detect the online activities of AI bots, given the increasing dangers of this fast changing technology. Our long term goal is to build a BestWorld Ecosystem that would: 1. Guarantee full verifiable identities of all participants -- hence our Bot or Not research, so no bot could steal your identity or trick you by pretending to be your relative, friend, spouse, or lover; 2. Promote face to face contact in preference to remote contact; 3. Provide social and economic benefits to all BestWorld participants. A human editor has reviewed all news stories linked from this page, including those of Jeremy Lichtman's Multi-AI Oracle bot, comprising Claude, Mistral, and OpenAI; and Phillip Godzin's pgodzinai bot, comprising Perplexity, Grok, AskNews Deep Search, GPT, Anthropic, and Gemini. Aug. 26-27, 2025: News briefs from the bleeding edge of science and technology. Today, GenAI Risks and Opportunities. 6–8 minutes read Aug. 27, 2025: Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in the month of August 2025? Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai predicted 3% 11–14 minutes read Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicted 35% 10–12 minutes read
August 28, 2025 at 1:43 AM
cmeinel.com
I have been pleasantly surprised at how well Jeremy Lichtman and Phillip Godzin have done with keeping their forecasting bots from hallucinating, instead making credible forecasts supported by citations of news and history. bestworld.net
July 29, 2024: Will hostilities between Pakistan and India result in at least 100 total uniformed casualties (with at least one death) between 2 June 2025 and 30 September 2025? Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts 20% 10–12 minutes read Also: How many state-based conflict deaths (total of all civilian and combat deaths, including both Ukrainian and Russian combatants) will be reported by ACLED in Ukraine in July, 2025? Here’s what Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai predicts today: Less than 500: 3% Between 500 and 1000: 15% Between 1,000 and 1,500: 45% Between 1,500 and 2,000: 27% Greater than 2000: 10% 16–20 minutes read July 28, 2024: How many state-based conflict deaths in Sudan will be reported by ACLED for 2025? Here’s what Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicted: Less than 1,000: 2% Between 1,000 and 3,000: 8% Between 3,000 and 5,000: 15% Between 5,000 and 8,000: 25% Between 8,000 and 12,000: 35% More than 12,000: 15% 11–14 minutes read Also: Will hostilities between Pakistan and India result in at least 100 total uniformed casualties (with at least one death) between 2 June 2025 and 30 September 2025? Phil Godzin’s pgodzinai bot predicted 12% 17–22 minutes read
July 30, 2025 at 2:31 AM
cmeinel.com
Joke about the problem of replicability of research papers showing a newspaper with the headline "REPLICATION CRISIS SOLVED" Source: https://xkcd.com/3117/
July 19, 2025 at 1:34 PM
cmeinel.com
Will hostilities between Pakistan and India result in at least 100 total uniformed casualties (with at least one death) between 2 June 2025 and 30 September 2025?

Today, Phil Godzin’s pgodzinai bot predicts 38%

Details here: bestworld.net/india-pakist...
What's Happening Today while Looking Toward Tomorrow BestWorld is a non-profit researching better ways to provide news we can trust and use. With our Bot or Not project, we are focusing on how to detect the online activities of AI bots, given the increasing dangers of this fast changing technology. Our long term goal is to build a BestWorld Ecosystem that would: 1. Guarantee full verifiable identities of all participants -- hence our Bot or Not research, so no bot could steal your identity or trick you by pretending to be your relative, friend, spouse, or lover; 2. Promote face to face contact in preference to remote contact; 3. Provide social and economic benefits to all BestWorld participants. Source: https://www.newsweek.com/kashmir-conflict-control-territory-india-pakistan-china-2066959 Source: https://kashmir.liveuamap.com/
July 8, 2025 at 3:05 AM
cmeinel.com
June 20, 2025: Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai predicts How many state-based conflict deaths in Sudan will be reported by ACLED in 2025?
bestworld.net/botmaster-ph...

Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle also predicts these state-based conflict deaths for Sudan.
bestworld.net/botmaster-je...
An aggregate forecast of state-based conflict fatalities for Sudan in the VIEWS machine forecasting competition, based on its forecasts by twenty machine learning competitors. Source: https://viewsforecasting.org Map of Sudan showing control between the RSF rebels plus their allies vs SAF, which is the official government, and its allies. Source: https://acleddata.com/2025/04/15/two-years-of-war-in-sudan-how-the-saf-is-gaining-the-upper-hand/
June 20, 2025 at 11:39 PM
cmeinel.com
Will the United States launch a kinetic strike against Iran before 1 August 2025?
Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts 45%
bestworld.net/willthe-us-a... Read time: 7–8 minutes
What's Happening Today while Looking Toward Tomorrow BestWorld is a non-profit researching better ways to provide news we can trust and use. With our Bot or Not project, we are focusing on how to detect the online activities of AI bots, given the increasing dangers of this fast changing technology. Our long term goal is to build a BestWorld Ecosystem that would: 1. Guarantee full verifiable identities of all participants -- hence our Bot or Not research, so no bot could steal your identity or trick you by pretending to be your relative, friend, spouse, or lover; 2. Promote face to face contact in preference to remote contact; 3. Provide social and economic benefits to all BestWorld participants.
June 20, 2025 at 2:19 AM
cmeinel.com
Things are looking hopeful in Syria, but the new government has many challenges ahead. See Jeremy Lichtman’s and Phil Godzin's AI-aided forecasts of June 5, 2025 on how many state-based conflict deaths in Syria will be reported by ACLED for the month of June 2025?
Image source: https://www.sana.sy/en/ Syria's President al-Sharaa receives cable of congratulation from President of the Arab Republic of Egypt on the occasion of Eid-al-Adha.
June 6, 2025 at 2:30 AM
cmeinel.com
Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in the month of May 2025?
Today, May 21, both Jeremy’s Multi-AI Oracle and Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai bot are predicting 15%.

Details here:
bestworld.net/israel-hamas...
bestworld.net/israel-hamas...
BestWorld is a non-profit researching better ways to provide news we can trust and use.  With our Bot or Not project, we are focusing on how to detect the online activities of AI bots, given the increasing dangers of this fast changing technology. Our long term goal is to build a BestWorld Ecosystem that would: 1. Guarantee full verifiable identities of all participants -- hence our Bot or Not research, so no bot could steal your identity or trick you by pretending to be your relative, friend, spouse, or lover; 2. Promote face to face contact in preference to remote contact; 3. Provide social and economic benefits to all BestWorld participants. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/longform/2023/10/9/israel-hamas-war-in-maps-and-charts-live-tracker
May 22, 2025 at 2:08 AM
cmeinel.com
How many state-based conflict deaths will be reported by ACLED for the month of May 2025?

Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai  predicts today:

* Less than 1000: 5%
* Between 1000 and 3000: 10%
* Between 3000 and 5000: 15%
* Between 5000 and 8000: 35%
* Between 8000 and 12000: 25%
* More than 12000: 10%
Control of terrain in Sudan. Source: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/africa-file-april-10-2025-rsf%E2%80%99s-northern-sudan-campaign A forecast for May, 2025 of 866 state-based conflict fatalities for Sudan in the VIEWS machine forecasting competition, which is an aggregate of the forecasts of twenty competitors. Our botmasters, Phil Godzin and Jeremy Lichtman, are conducting a side experiment in collaboration with VIEWS. Phil and Jeremy are predicting far higher fatalities.
May 16, 2025 at 8:45 PM
cmeinel.com
How many state-based conflict deaths will be reported by ACLED for the month of May 2025?

On May 15, Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai  predicts:

* Less than 100: 2%
* Between 100 and 250: 13%
* Between 250 and 500: 32%
* Between 500 and 1000: 35%
* Greater than 1000: 18%
ALT Map of Syria with the aggregate forecast of 86 conflict deaths in May, 2025 from the VIEWS machine forecasting competition. Source: https://data.viewsforecasting.org/ What's Happening Today while Looking Toward Tomorrow BestWorld is a non-profit researching better ways to provide news we can trust and use.  With our Bot or Not project, we are focusing on how to detect the online activities of AI bots, given the increasing dangers of this fast changing technology. May 15, 2025 Jeremy Lichtman's Multi-AI Oracle is predicting How many state-based conflict deaths in Syria will be reported by ACLED for the month of May 2025? Phil Godzin's pgodzinai also is predicting state-based conflict deaths in Syria for May. May 14, 2025 Jeremy Lichtman's Multi-AI Oracle is predicting Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in the month of May 2025?Phil Godzin's pgodzinai also is predicting whether there will be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in May 2025. 13, 2025 Jeremy Lichtman's Multi-AI Oracle is predicting How many state-based conflict deaths (total of all civilian and combat deaths, including both Ukrainian and Russian combatants) will be reported by ACLED in Ukraine in May, 2025? Phil Godzin's pgodzinai also is predicting May 2025 conflict deaths in Ukraine. May 12, 2025 Phil Godzin's pgodzinai is forecasting Will ACLED report any conflict fatalities by India against Pakistan or vice versa between May 13 and the end of May?
May 15, 2025 at 7:42 PM