@cloud-cake.bsky.social
Part of the reason the problem is so famous is because it’s so unintuitive. Don’t have my source for this but when the correct solution was first discovered it was met with ridicule from statisticians and such. Your odds do indeed go up if you switch, and quite considerably so.
January 10, 2026 at 12:50 AM
Part of the reason the problem is so famous is because it’s so unintuitive. Don’t have my source for this but when the correct solution was first discovered it was met with ridicule from statisticians and such. Your odds do indeed go up if you switch, and quite considerably so.
One simplification to show how it works: iirc in the original you have 3, one you didn’t pick is eliminated, then you stay or switch to the remaining door.
Instead imagine 100 doors. 98 are eliminated, leaving your door and one other door. Same problem. The correct choice is much more apparent.
Instead imagine 100 doors. 98 are eliminated, leaving your door and one other door. Same problem. The correct choice is much more apparent.
January 10, 2026 at 12:46 AM
One simplification to show how it works: iirc in the original you have 3, one you didn’t pick is eliminated, then you stay or switch to the remaining door.
Instead imagine 100 doors. 98 are eliminated, leaving your door and one other door. Same problem. The correct choice is much more apparent.
Instead imagine 100 doors. 98 are eliminated, leaving your door and one other door. Same problem. The correct choice is much more apparent.