49

Swingometer suggests:

Labour - 30

Reform - 28

Plaid - 25

Tories - 13

Though treat that with caution

As Sinn Fein (7 MPs) don’t take their seats, and as the Speaker doesn’t vote, the number needed for a working majority is 321.

Electoral Calculus:

Labour - 257 (-155)

Reform - 145 (+140)

Tories - 127 (+6)

Lib Dems - 67 (-5)

Greens - 4

SNP - 24 (+15)

Plaid - 2 (-2)

Independents - 6 (+1)

NI - 18

Electoral Calculus:

Labour - 257 (-155)

Reform - 145 (+140)

Tories - 127 (+6)

Lib Dems - 67 (-5)

Greens - 4

SNP - 24 (+15)

Plaid - 2 (-2)

Independents - 6 (+1)

NI - 18

Electoral Calculus:

Labour - 226 (-186)

Tories - 184 (+63)

Reform - 124 (+119)

Lib Dems - 63 (-9)

Greens - 4

SNP - 24 (+15)

Plaid - 2 (-2)

Independents/Gaza - 5

NI - 18

Electoral Calculus:

Labour - 229 (-183)

Reform - 167 (+162)

Tories - 130 (+9)

Lib Dems - 68 (-4)

Greens - 4

SNP - 26 (+17)

Plaid - 2 (-2)

Independents - 6 (+1)

NI - 18

Electoral Calculus:

Labour - 187 (-225)

Reform - 178 (+173)

Tories - 167 (+46)

Lib Dems - 60 (-12)

Greens - 4

SNP - 29 (+20)

Plaid - 2 (-2)

Independents - 5

NI - 18

Electoral Calculus:

Labour - 305 (-107)

Tories - 115 (-6)

Reform - 111 (+106)

Lib Dems - 71 (-1)

Greens - 4

SNP - 12 (+3)

Plaid - 4

Independents - 10 (+5)

NI - 18

A majority in the Bundestag is 316 seats. If the CDU and the SPD were to go into another Grand Coalition they would have… exactly 316 seats.

Electoral Calculus:

Labour - 227 (-185)

Tories - 211 (+90)

Reform - 83 (+78)

Lib Dems - 71 (-1)

Greens - 4

SNP - 20 (+11)

Plaid - 4

Independents - 12 (+7)

NI - 18