ClimTip | Climate Tipping Points in the Earth System
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🌍 Embracing uncertainty in the science of tipping points & their impacts
🌊 Polar ice sheets, Amazon rainforest, Atlantic Ocean Currents (AMOC)
🔬 Funded by the European Union No.101137601
👇 Follow for latest science, webinars & updates
🌊 Polar ice sheets, Amazon rainforest, Atlantic Ocean Currents (AMOC)
🔬 Funded by the European Union No.101137601
👇 Follow for latest science, webinars & updates
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November 3, 2025 at 9:46 PM
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October 1, 2025 at 10:39 AM
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August 26, 2025 at 9:42 AM
10/ To refine these projections, we need better observations of the Southern Ocean and Indo-Pacific to check these stabilising processes.
🔀 If models are biased here, the picture could change.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
🔀 If models are biased here, the picture could change.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Continued Atlantic overturning circulation even under climate extremes - Nature
Climate models suggest that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is unlikely to collapse this century, owing to stabilization from wind-driven upwelling in the Southern Ocean.
www.nature.com
August 26, 2025 at 9:31 AM
10/ To refine these projections, we need better observations of the Southern Ocean and Indo-Pacific to check these stabilising processes.
🔀 If models are biased here, the picture could change.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
🔀 If models are biased here, the picture could change.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
9/ Collapse this century looks unlikely, but weakening is almost certain and carries serious risks⚠️
“This is no excuse for complacency. A “big freeze” in Europe may not be imminent, but the urgency to act has never been greater. The AMOC’s future depends on our actions today," says the author
“This is no excuse for complacency. A “big freeze” in Europe may not be imminent, but the urgency to act has never been greater. The AMOC’s future depends on our actions today," says the author
August 26, 2025 at 9:31 AM
9/ Collapse this century looks unlikely, but weakening is almost certain and carries serious risks⚠️
“This is no excuse for complacency. A “big freeze” in Europe may not be imminent, but the urgency to act has never been greater. The AMOC’s future depends on our actions today," says the author
“This is no excuse for complacency. A “big freeze” in Europe may not be imminent, but the urgency to act has never been greater. The AMOC’s future depends on our actions today," says the author
8/ A weaker AMOC could shift rainfall belts, bringing drought to parts of the tropics.
❄️ Europe may face stormier winters and drier summers, ⬆️ the US east coast faster sea-level rise,
🌾 while ecosystems and food security worldwide could be disrupted.
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
❄️ Europe may face stormier winters and drier summers, ⬆️ the US east coast faster sea-level rise,
🌾 while ecosystems and food security worldwide could be disrupted.
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
Climate impacts of a weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a warming climate
The global and regional impacts of the AMOC slowdown on climate change in the 21st century are isolated and quantified.
www.science.org
August 26, 2025 at 9:31 AM
8/ A weaker AMOC could shift rainfall belts, bringing drought to parts of the tropics.
❄️ Europe may face stormier winters and drier summers, ⬆️ the US east coast faster sea-level rise,
🌾 while ecosystems and food security worldwide could be disrupted.
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
❄️ Europe may face stormier winters and drier summers, ⬆️ the US east coast faster sea-level rise,
🌾 while ecosystems and food security worldwide could be disrupted.
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
7/ Together, these processes explain why models show slowdown rather than collapse.
⚠️ Climate projections suggest the AMOC will weaken by ~25–40% by 2100, depending on emissions.
And that weakening matters.
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
⚠️ Climate projections suggest the AMOC will weaken by ~25–40% by 2100, depending on emissions.
And that weakening matters.
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
Overturning Pathways Control AMOC Weakening in CMIP6 Models
The magnitude of 21st century Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) weakening in CMIP6 models is highly correlated with an AMOC pathway into the Indo-Pacific Ocean The real-world “In...
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
August 26, 2025 at 9:31 AM
7/ Together, these processes explain why models show slowdown rather than collapse.
⚠️ Climate projections suggest the AMOC will weaken by ~25–40% by 2100, depending on emissions.
And that weakening matters.
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
⚠️ Climate projections suggest the AMOC will weaken by ~25–40% by 2100, depending on emissions.
And that weakening matters.
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
6/ 2️⃣ Pacific circulation is too weak. In extreme cases, a Pacific Meridional Overturning Circulation (PMOC) forms – a reversed version of Pacific circulation today.
🌊 If strong enough, it could replace Atlantic sinking and trigger collapse.
But under realistic warming, it stays weak or absent.
🌊 If strong enough, it could replace Atlantic sinking and trigger collapse.
But under realistic warming, it stays weak or absent.
August 26, 2025 at 9:31 AM
6/ 2️⃣ Pacific circulation is too weak. In extreme cases, a Pacific Meridional Overturning Circulation (PMOC) forms – a reversed version of Pacific circulation today.
🌊 If strong enough, it could replace Atlantic sinking and trigger collapse.
But under realistic warming, it stays weak or absent.
🌊 If strong enough, it could replace Atlantic sinking and trigger collapse.
But under realistic warming, it stays weak or absent.
5/ 1️⃣ 🌬️ Southern Ocean winds act like a pump, hauling deep water to the surface.
⚖️ That upwelling must be balanced by sinking elsewhere. Unless the Pacific fully takes over, some sinking will always remain in the Atlantic.
⚖️ That upwelling must be balanced by sinking elsewhere. Unless the Pacific fully takes over, some sinking will always remain in the Atlantic.
August 26, 2025 at 9:31 AM
5/ 1️⃣ 🌬️ Southern Ocean winds act like a pump, hauling deep water to the surface.
⚖️ That upwelling must be balanced by sinking elsewhere. Unless the Pacific fully takes over, some sinking will always remain in the Atlantic.
⚖️ That upwelling must be balanced by sinking elsewhere. Unless the Pacific fully takes over, some sinking will always remain in the Atlantic.
4/ To see AMOC’s response, authors used 34 climate models under two extreme scenarios:
1) quadrupling CO₂; 2) adding huge freshwater from Greenland.
In both cases the AMOC weakened, but didn’t completely shut down.
‼️ The explanation comes down to two stabilising factors:
tinyurl.com/264rmmrt
1) quadrupling CO₂; 2) adding huge freshwater from Greenland.
In both cases the AMOC weakened, but didn’t completely shut down.
‼️ The explanation comes down to two stabilising factors:
tinyurl.com/264rmmrt
Continued Atlantic overturning circulation even under climate extremes - Nature
Climate models suggest that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is unlikely to collapse this century, owing to stabilization from wind-driven upwelling in the Southern Ocean.
tinyurl.com
August 26, 2025 at 9:31 AM
4/ To see AMOC’s response, authors used 34 climate models under two extreme scenarios:
1) quadrupling CO₂; 2) adding huge freshwater from Greenland.
In both cases the AMOC weakened, but didn’t completely shut down.
‼️ The explanation comes down to two stabilising factors:
tinyurl.com/264rmmrt
1) quadrupling CO₂; 2) adding huge freshwater from Greenland.
In both cases the AMOC weakened, but didn’t completely shut down.
‼️ The explanation comes down to two stabilising factors:
tinyurl.com/264rmmrt
3/ Global warming and Greenland’s meltwater entering the North Atlantic weaken this circulation, raising fears it could fail.
Yet most climate models don’t show collapse (i.e., weakening below 6 Sv) this century.
Until now, the reason for that stability wasn’t clear.
tinyurl.com/mrx5fza4
Yet most climate models don’t show collapse (i.e., weakening below 6 Sv) this century.
Until now, the reason for that stability wasn’t clear.
tinyurl.com/mrx5fza4
Assessing the stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation of the past, present, and future - Journal of Meteorological Research
This paper is a review of the recent development of researches on the stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). In particular, we will review recent studies that attempt to ...
tinyurl.com
August 26, 2025 at 9:31 AM
3/ Global warming and Greenland’s meltwater entering the North Atlantic weaken this circulation, raising fears it could fail.
Yet most climate models don’t show collapse (i.e., weakening below 6 Sv) this century.
Until now, the reason for that stability wasn’t clear.
tinyurl.com/mrx5fza4
Yet most climate models don’t show collapse (i.e., weakening below 6 Sv) this century.
Until now, the reason for that stability wasn’t clear.
tinyurl.com/mrx5fza4
2/ The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) transports huge amounts of heat & salt north from the tropics & returns cold water south at depth – the Atlantic heat engine.
It shapes climate & rainfall patterns across Europe, Africa, the Americas & global ecosystems
tinyurl.com/2xu6x2ja
It shapes climate & rainfall patterns across Europe, Africa, the Americas & global ecosystems
tinyurl.com/2xu6x2ja
Observations, inferences, and mechanisms of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: A review
Intra-annual AMOC variability is large and forced by the wind
Decadal AMOC variability is associated with density variations on the ocean boundaries
The subtropical-subpolar transition zone is a pa...
tinyurl.com
August 26, 2025 at 9:31 AM
2/ The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) transports huge amounts of heat & salt north from the tropics & returns cold water south at depth – the Atlantic heat engine.
It shapes climate & rainfall patterns across Europe, Africa, the Americas & global ecosystems
tinyurl.com/2xu6x2ja
It shapes climate & rainfall patterns across Europe, Africa, the Americas & global ecosystems
tinyurl.com/2xu6x2ja
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August 19, 2025 at 1:18 PM