Clara Burgard
@climateclara.bsky.social
Polar climate scientist at LOCEAN-IPSL in #Paris. ex-MPI Meteo and ex-IGE.
I ❤️ #ice, #ocean #polar regions, #climate 🧊🌊🇦🇶🐻❄️🐧
she/her
🇫🇷🇩🇪🇪🇺
I ❤️ #ice, #ocean #polar regions, #climate 🧊🌊🇦🇶🐻❄️🐧
she/her
🇫🇷🇩🇪🇪🇺
A link to access the full paper: rdcu.be/eNkZa
Ocean warming threatens the viability of 60% of Antarctic ice shelves
Nature - The viability of Antarctic ice shelves under low rates and high rates of global warming is modelled to estimate when it will become unfeasible for the ice shelves to maintain their...
rdcu.be
October 29, 2025 at 5:22 PM
A link to access the full paper: rdcu.be/eNkZa
A link to access the full paper: rdcu.be/eNkZa
Ocean warming threatens the viability of 60% of Antarctic ice shelves
Nature - The viability of Antarctic ice shelves under low rates and high rates of global warming is modelled to estimate when it will become unfeasible for the ice shelves to maintain their...
rdcu.be
October 29, 2025 at 5:22 PM
A link to access the full paper: rdcu.be/eNkZa
A big thank you to our fabulous power-team: @nicojourdain.bsky.social, Cyrille Mosbeux, Christoph Kittel, Justine Caillet and Pierre Mathiot 💪
8/8
8/8
October 29, 2025 at 4:45 PM
A big thank you to our fabulous power-team: @nicojourdain.bsky.social, Cyrille Mosbeux, Christoph Kittel, Justine Caillet and Pierre Mathiot 💪
8/8
8/8
This study therefore confirms that today's choices regarding greenhouse gas emission reduction will directly determine the future of Antarctica and of global sea-level rise.
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October 29, 2025 at 4:45 PM
This study therefore confirms that today's choices regarding greenhouse gas emission reduction will directly determine the future of Antarctica and of global sea-level rise.
7/8
7/8
The main driver for the increased mass loss that leads to non-viability is the warming of the ocean. The warm water circulates beneath the ice shelves, leading to increased melt at their base.
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October 29, 2025 at 4:45 PM
The main driver for the increased mass loss that leads to non-viability is the warming of the ocean. The warm water circulates beneath the ice shelves, leading to increased melt at their base.
6/8
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These 38 ice shelves act as a break on the outflow of large glacial drainage basins that have the potential to add 10 m to global sea level on the long term if all their ice flows into the ocean.
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October 29, 2025 at 4:45 PM
These 38 ice shelves act as a break on the outflow of large glacial drainage basins that have the potential to add 10 m to global sea level on the long term if all their ice flows into the ocean.
5/8
5/8
In a high-emission scenario reaching up to 12°C global warming by 2300, 38 out of 64 Antarctic ice shelves could be destined to disappear in the long term. 26 of these already by 2150. In a low-emission scenario limiting global warming to 2°C, 63 out of 64 ice shelves would remain viable.
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October 29, 2025 at 4:45 PM
In a high-emission scenario reaching up to 12°C global warming by 2300, 38 out of 64 Antarctic ice shelves could be destined to disappear in the long term. 26 of these already by 2150. In a low-emission scenario limiting global warming to 2°C, 63 out of 64 ice shelves would remain viable.
4/8
4/8
With a novel method, we consider all climate and glaciology uncertainties, including processes that are still poorly understood, such as ice fracturing and iceberg calving, to estimate the dates beyond which the ice shelves have virtually no chance of maintaining their shape in the long term.
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October 29, 2025 at 4:45 PM
With a novel method, we consider all climate and glaciology uncertainties, including processes that are still poorly understood, such as ice fracturing and iceberg calving, to estimate the dates beyond which the ice shelves have virtually no chance of maintaining their shape in the long term.
3/8
3/8
These ice shelves modulate the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise by acting as a brake on the ice flow from the grounded ice sheet to the ocean. Their disappearance in the long term would thus have repercussions on the rate of sea level rise.
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October 29, 2025 at 4:45 PM
These ice shelves modulate the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise by acting as a brake on the ice flow from the grounded ice sheet to the ocean. Their disappearance in the long term would thus have repercussions on the rate of sea level rise.
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A big thank you to our fabulous power-team: @nicojourdain.bsky.social, Cyrille Mosbeux, Christoph Kittel, Justine Caillet and Pierre Mathiot 💪
7/7
7/7
October 29, 2025 at 4:41 PM
A big thank you to our fabulous power-team: @nicojourdain.bsky.social, Cyrille Mosbeux, Christoph Kittel, Justine Caillet and Pierre Mathiot 💪
7/7
7/7
While this viability limit represents a conservative latest-bound for long-term disappearance, it can be seen as a proxy for the prior ice-shelf mechanical weakening required for #hydrofracturing, that could potentially lead to an earlier actual collapse.
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October 29, 2025 at 4:41 PM
While this viability limit represents a conservative latest-bound for long-term disappearance, it can be seen as a proxy for the prior ice-shelf mechanical weakening required for #hydrofracturing, that could potentially lead to an earlier actual collapse.
6/7
6/7