Caroline Holmes
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climatecaroline.bsky.social
Caroline Holmes
@climatecaroline.bsky.social
Scientist at @bas.ac.uk ; all things Antarctic sea ice and climate.
Amazing- congratulations! (I have, of course, ordered two.)
December 5, 2024 at 9:31 PM
- There's lots of work still to do to understand how bad/good these models are! In particular, that 'straight line' is a simple measure and a small part of the story; the exact way in which sea ice has changed still looks quite different between models and observations. (6/6)
December 5, 2024 at 9:29 AM
- That could be good news for our understanding but bad news for the future; models show rapid sea ice declines! BUT ⚠️... (5/6)
December 5, 2024 at 9:29 AM
- We showed, based on 'linear trends' alone (i.e. putting a straight line through the time series of sea ice), we can no longer conclude that models are 'wrong' at representing trends IF we consider the longest time series available (45 years) (4/6)
December 5, 2024 at 9:29 AM
- But in the last few years sea ice has plummeted 📉(remember those headlines last July/August); maybe those models weren't too bad after all? (3/6)
December 5, 2024 at 9:29 AM
- The general consensus is that coupled climate models are pretty 👎 at representing Antarctic sea ice 🌊❄️. One reason (of many!) for this is that they all showed it decreasing over the period when satellite data showed it increasing (i.e. until about 10 years ago) (2/6)
December 5, 2024 at 9:29 AM