Yes, I very much agree!

😃👌

Right wing 🤔 Tristram Hunt is actually a former Labour MP. He belongs to a British elite who don’t find the continent shinny enough (or have a superiority complex) and rarely pass on an opportunity to take a dig at the French.

I think it is part of a wider - and maybe London-centric - view amongst UK ‘intelligentsia’/elites that the continent is a place in decline, unable to innovate or prove nimble to exploit the ‘exciting’ 21st century opportunities. ‘Le vieux continent’, stuck in its 20th century ways.

Darmanin 🤔 not fool enough. At this stage the only ones who would have said yes to the job were the socialists. Real shame for Lecornu. He did a solid job for years in Macron's party. But however his second term as PM ends, he will be burnt politically now.

Affligeant cette séquence cette semaine

Lecornu is very close and loyal to Macron, but Lecornu is saying tonight his gvt will have to represent renewal... Not sure anyone will believe that is plausible. Macron comes out even more weakened from this latest sequence.

Maybe there is not really a best case scenario - it is highly unlikely that any PM could command stability/legitimact with current arithmetic in Parliament but you never know... And with Macron very exposed and very unpopular, 🇫🇷 is getting closer to an institutional crisis, whomever ends up in power

As for parliament, it is extremely difficult to predict given the 2 round system + what the french call 'le jeux des alliances' = how parties negotiate between the two rounds of parliamentary elections. That is how the Left bloc ended up with biggest number of seats in parliament at last election

Bardella, Rassemblement National, is far ahead of potential rivals but only around 30% of voters' intentions. Traditionally, far right does not benefit from large nb of vote carryover from other parties whose candidate doesn't make 2nd round. So a lot depends on who ends up being 1st round runner up

Macron could also decide to 'dissolve parliament', which would lead to parliamentary elections. The Rassemblement National secured the second largest block of votes in last parliamentary election in 2024 but did not come first and was nowhere near a majority of seats.

Not necessarily. Pdt election is two round system with runoff between the two candidates that gathered most votes in 1st round if none secured 50% + 1 vote in 1st round. So far, Le Pen has failed twice after reaching second round runoff, twice against Macron. It is also not clear if Le Pen can run.

If he were to quit (a very unlikely scenario), there would be a presidential election. It would have to be held between 20 and 35 days after he quits. During period between resignation and election, the president of the Senat is interim 🇫🇷 Pdt, though he won't have full executive powers of Pdt

To be clear, left block is calling for Macron to nominate a left wing PM, which is something Macron had resisted since the general election results in July 2024, when a coalition of left wing parties (le front populaire) won the most seats in parliament but well short of any absolute majority

Far Left party La France Insoumise les by Mélenchon is calling for Macron to quit. Not yet a call from other parties. Macron though is particularly unpopular, personally blamed for current political crisis, and even more exposed politically now Lecornu, a very close ally of Macron, has quit as PM.

Rassemblement National of M. Le Pen is calling for Pdt to call a general election; a reminder that political crisis in 🇫🇷 (three PMs in one year + fragmented parliament) comes from Macron’s unilateral decision to call a parliamentary election in June 2024, after his block lost heavily in 🇪🇺 elections.

Macron nominates another PM and asks them to form a government. The left block is calling for Pdt to do this, something Macron has resisted doing. BUT no block has absolute majority or seems to be able to negotiate a majority in parliament so any new PM & gvt will face the same problems.