Clarkkenwxman@bluesky.social
@clarkkenwxman.bsky.social
Retired expert senior meteorologist with AccuWeather 1974-2018. Western U.S.+Tropical expertise, esp CA, and Forensic Meteorologist 1993-Present. All opinions are my own.
The tragedy in Texas on July 4 is horrendous. I continue to pray for those affected. I did want to write something about the meteorology, which has gotten some undeserved criticism. Below are my thoughts. I want to thank James Spann on X for a part of this piece. As always, he is great.
July 7, 2025 at 2:13 AM
The tragedy in Texas on July 4 is horrendous. I continue to pray for those affected. I did want to write something about the meteorology, which has gotten some undeserved criticism. Below are my thoughts. I want to thank James Spann on X for a part of this piece. As always, he is great.
Here’s a different look at the consequences to the severe weather us having on flights.
June 9, 2025 at 3:15 AM
Here’s a different look at the consequences to the severe weather us having on flights.
Look at the radar and then look at FlightRadar24 where the flights are and aren’t. Helluva good reason for where they’re not!
June 9, 2025 at 3:07 AM
Look at the radar and then look at FlightRadar24 where the flights are and aren’t. Helluva good reason for where they’re not!
This means record low water levels of a few years may again be challenged. Las Vegas is a huge concern. But so is downstream with many farms in Southeast CA and western AZ relying on the water releases to survive!
June 7, 2025 at 3:21 AM
This means record low water levels of a few years may again be challenged. Las Vegas is a huge concern. But so is downstream with many farms in Southeast CA and western AZ relying on the water releases to survive!
It's felt like Spring lately but the heat ratchets up the rest of the week. Summer-like warmth away from the beaches. Highs in the 90s likely SoCA valleys Wed+Thur and lower deserts will hit low 100s. Some records fall. Maps are daily temp anomalies Tue through Friday. #cawx
April 8, 2025 at 4:33 AM
It's felt like Spring lately but the heat ratchets up the rest of the week. Summer-like warmth away from the beaches. Highs in the 90s likely SoCA valleys Wed+Thur and lower deserts will hit low 100s. Some records fall. Maps are daily temp anomalies Tue through Friday. #cawx
A perfect example of why I hate to dabble too much in the long range (past 5-7 days). Below 500mb charts from the GFS and Euro verifying for 4-13-25 at 5pm PT. They could hardly be more total opposites on the West Coast. SFO height 546dm GFS vs. 577dm Euro.#cawx
April 4, 2025 at 6:39 AM
A perfect example of why I hate to dabble too much in the long range (past 5-7 days). Below 500mb charts from the GFS and Euro verifying for 4-13-25 at 5pm PT. They could hardly be more total opposites on the West Coast. SFO height 546dm GFS vs. 577dm Euro.#cawx
I’ve been saying this for months. This is a typical La Niña rainfall season in CA. It’s not changing going into April. The have’s, Northern CA. The have nots, Southern CA. Anybody who said differently was either confused or wish casting. #cawx
March 29, 2025 at 1:17 PM
I’ve been saying this for months. This is a typical La Niña rainfall season in CA. It’s not changing going into April. The have’s, Northern CA. The have nots, Southern CA. Anybody who said differently was either confused or wish casting. #cawx
The 2024/2025 CA rainfall season has been every bit La Niña driven. The next 7-10 days is NO DIFFERENT. Ensemble members mimic operational runs. A good amount of rain/mtn snow in the north but small amounts in the south. THERE IS NO PATTERN CHANGE from much of the season. #cawx
March 26, 2025 at 2:04 AM
The 2024/2025 CA rainfall season has been every bit La Niña driven. The next 7-10 days is NO DIFFERENT. Ensemble members mimic operational runs. A good amount of rain/mtn snow in the north but small amounts in the south. THERE IS NO PATTERN CHANGE from much of the season. #cawx
Here’s the video of the rain and wind.
March 14, 2025 at 12:48 AM
Here’s the video of the rain and wind.
Another batch of storms moving through. Heavy downpours and gusty winds but no hail or wet snow this time. By Southern Cal standards it’s COLD outside. Current temp 43.
March 14, 2025 at 12:48 AM
Another batch of storms moving through. Heavy downpours and gusty winds but no hail or wet snow this time. By Southern Cal standards it’s COLD outside. Current temp 43.
Instability galore in Southern CA with the cold trough. Lots of cellular clouds producing showers and a few thunderstorms. Notice the lightning flashes. Thunderstorms have brought gusty winds, downpours, hail and low elevation snow. #cawx
March 13, 2025 at 9:38 PM
Instability galore in Southern CA with the cold trough. Lots of cellular clouds producing showers and a few thunderstorms. Notice the lightning flashes. Thunderstorms have brought gusty winds, downpours, hail and low elevation snow. #cawx
Pics from just before storm hit.
March 13, 2025 at 8:23 PM
Pics from just before storm hit.
Wild So Cal wx. A t-storm moved through near Fontana. Approx elev 990ft ASL. First penny size soft hail. Then the temp dropped from 50 to 39 in 2 minutes. Mix of large snow flakes, sleet and rain. Video was shot while stopped. Pics from just before it arrived. #cawx #accuweather
March 13, 2025 at 8:22 PM
Wild So Cal wx. A t-storm moved through near Fontana. Approx elev 990ft ASL. First penny size soft hail. Then the temp dropped from 50 to 39 in 2 minutes. Mix of large snow flakes, sleet and rain. Video was shot while stopped. Pics from just before it arrived. #cawx #accuweather
Below is my forecast from Saturday. Storm #1 timing was off, late ton/Tue now but amnts still good. Still not a big deal. Storm #2, the saying goes “if it ain’t broke don’t fix it” applies. Moderate to strong impacts north to south. 2 additional storms Fri-Tue! #cawx
March 11, 2025 at 2:31 AM
Below is my forecast from Saturday. Storm #1 timing was off, late ton/Tue now but amnts still good. Still not a big deal. Storm #2, the saying goes “if it ain’t broke don’t fix it” applies. Moderate to strong impacts north to south. 2 additional storms Fri-Tue! #cawx
A nice weekend for CA! Stormier weather returns next week. Below I give my detailed analysis and impacts. The second storm much more impactful than the first with some AR, great dynamics and favored upslope wind components. Graphics are precip amounts from each storm. #cawx
March 8, 2025 at 7:38 PM
A nice weekend for CA! Stormier weather returns next week. Below I give my detailed analysis and impacts. The second storm much more impactful than the first with some AR, great dynamics and favored upslope wind components. Graphics are precip amounts from each storm. #cawx
3 more mod to pot high impact storms thru the 13th. Tomorrow's brings potential for t-storms esp S.CA with hail, hvy downpours, debris flows. Low snow levels causing problems in the passes. Two more storms next week. Don't concentrate on exact rain yet #cawx
March 6, 2025 at 3:15 AM
3 more mod to pot high impact storms thru the 13th. Tomorrow's brings potential for t-storms esp S.CA with hail, hvy downpours, debris flows. Low snow levels causing problems in the passes. Two more storms next week. Don't concentrate on exact rain yet #cawx
Impressive line of thunderstorms moving through my area right now!
March 3, 2025 at 3:14 AM
Impressive line of thunderstorms moving through my area right now!
Very warm temps likely through Wed/Thurs in CA. Some places over 20 degrees above norm. Inland S. CA will see mid 80s/low 90s Wed/Thurs. A weak low cools things some Fri with a shower possible but nothing impt. A better chance of rain in the Sun-Tue, but timing uncertain. #cawx
February 24, 2025 at 3:14 AM
Very warm temps likely through Wed/Thurs in CA. Some places over 20 degrees above norm. Inland S. CA will see mid 80s/low 90s Wed/Thurs. A weak low cools things some Fri with a shower possible but nothing impt. A better chance of rain in the Sun-Tue, but timing uncertain. #cawx
It's been a huge weather roller coastal ride for S. CA in the past 5+ weeks. Devastating fires and strong Santa Ana winds, then a big rain storm. But the wx is going to be quiet thru months end with temps rising well above historical average and no rain. Typical La Nina. #cawx
February 16, 2025 at 6:56 PM
It's been a huge weather roller coastal ride for S. CA in the past 5+ weeks. Devastating fires and strong Santa Ana winds, then a big rain storm. But the wx is going to be quiet thru months end with temps rising well above historical average and no rain. Typical La Nina. #cawx
No Virginia, La Nina is not dead. And no, this weeks rain doesn't even bring most places to 50% of historic average for the rainfall season (October 1 to now). There is a LONG way to go to accomplish normal in the next month and a half. See discussion and table below. #cawx
February 15, 2025 at 12:17 AM
No Virginia, La Nina is not dead. And no, this weeks rain doesn't even bring most places to 50% of historic average for the rainfall season (October 1 to now). There is a LONG way to go to accomplish normal in the next month and a half. See discussion and table below. #cawx
Deluge at my place as the cold front began to move in. Wind driven rain and definitely R+. I had 1.56” before this. It does, occasionally, rain in Southern California Albert Hammond! #cawx
February 14, 2025 at 2:51 AM
Deluge at my place as the cold front began to move in. Wind driven rain and definitely R+. I had 1.56” before this. It does, occasionally, rain in Southern California Albert Hammond! #cawx
Still, a lot more rain to go across the LA area, south and east. Moderate to heavy rain with high risk of debris flows and mudslides in, and near, burn areas. It’s going to be a horrible afternoon commute. Roads are already feeling it. Watch for flooded lanes! #cawx
February 13, 2025 at 11:28 PM
Still, a lot more rain to go across the LA area, south and east. Moderate to heavy rain with high risk of debris flows and mudslides in, and near, burn areas. It’s going to be a horrible afternoon commute. Roads are already feeling it. Watch for flooded lanes! #cawx
Sat loop shows rapidly cooling cloud tops moving into N. CA. Meaning much more intense rainfall about to slam that area ton and move south Thur. Scary scenario with thunderstorms also very possible. In recent burn areas it’s not if there will be debris flows, it’s how bad! #cawx
February 13, 2025 at 4:47 AM
Sat loop shows rapidly cooling cloud tops moving into N. CA. Meaning much more intense rainfall about to slam that area ton and move south Thur. Scary scenario with thunderstorms also very possible. In recent burn areas it’s not if there will be debris flows, it’s how bad! #cawx