Claire Halloran
@clairehalloran.bsky.social
Modeling the long-term future of the electricity system. PhD in planning a grid with lots of heat pumps. Electricity grid planning, heat electrification, renewable energy & maps. Personal account, my views. https://clairehalloran.github.io
Maybe the real advanced rail energy storage was public transit all along 😉
January 26, 2025 at 1:03 AM
Maybe the real advanced rail energy storage was public transit all along 😉
I agree with @energysmartwv.bsky.social! I’m a grid modeler, and this is a future grid planner problem to worry about when a significant share of people in the blue areas have heat pumps. Decarbonizing is a problem for all of us to worry about now.
December 28, 2024 at 10:36 PM
I agree with @energysmartwv.bsky.social! I’m a grid modeler, and this is a future grid planner problem to worry about when a significant share of people in the blue areas have heat pumps. Decarbonizing is a problem for all of us to worry about now.
Really informative article, but my favorite part has to be referring to air-source heat pumps as bisexual ACs 😂
December 26, 2024 at 4:28 PM
Really informative article, but my favorite part has to be referring to air-source heat pumps as bisexual ACs 😂
I agree, that’s what the article quoted in my first post is about! In dense areas, ground-source heat pumps could supply thermal energy networks vs. single buildings in less dense areas.
December 24, 2024 at 11:11 PM
I agree, that’s what the article quoted in my first post is about! In dense areas, ground-source heat pumps could supply thermal energy networks vs. single buildings in less dense areas.
Interesting, what role would you envision?
December 24, 2024 at 9:44 PM
Interesting, what role would you envision?
I would rather see potentially renewable synthetic fuels distributed like propane or heating oil than like gas. I have a vague association between heating oil use and high energy bills, so I hope that synthetics wouldn’t be too expensive for energy-burdened folks, even for a few peak hours.
December 24, 2024 at 9:43 PM
I would rather see potentially renewable synthetic fuels distributed like propane or heating oil than like gas. I have a vague association between heating oil use and high energy bills, so I hope that synthetics wouldn’t be too expensive for energy-burdened folks, even for a few peak hours.
That’s really interesting! I can’t wait to see this when you’re done.
December 24, 2024 at 9:31 PM
That’s really interesting! I can’t wait to see this when you’re done.
I’m extremely skeptical— in the UK (where I did my PhD), gas lobbyists were the ones promoting hydrogen boilers instead of heat pumps. It doesn’t seem like the US DOE mentions home heating as a hydrogen end-use on their website.
Gas boiler lobby trying to delay UK’s heat pump plans, leak shows
Trade association, which promotes hydrogen for home heating, called for clean heat market mechanism to be pushed back to 2026
www.theguardian.com
December 24, 2024 at 9:29 PM
I’m extremely skeptical— in the UK (where I did my PhD), gas lobbyists were the ones promoting hydrogen boilers instead of heat pumps. It doesn’t seem like the US DOE mentions home heating as a hydrogen end-use on their website.
Thank you for pointing that out! Do you have a good resource for how much distribution upgrades for heat pumps might cost?
December 24, 2024 at 9:22 PM
Thank you for pointing that out! Do you have a good resource for how much distribution upgrades for heat pumps might cost?
Hopefully we will have answers in a few years, since I hear this concern about decarbonizing heat in cold places from my Midwestern relatives often! Appreciate chatting with you as well, enjoy your holidays.
December 24, 2024 at 9:20 PM
Hopefully we will have answers in a few years, since I hear this concern about decarbonizing heat in cold places from my Midwestern relatives often! Appreciate chatting with you as well, enjoy your holidays.
I agree, this isn’t my paper! To completely remove fossil fuels from heating for all buildings, I think thermal energy networks could be a promising option in cold, dense areas. As others have pointed out, building and heat pump efficiency upgrades and distributed solar and batteries are also tools.
December 24, 2024 at 9:17 PM
I agree, this isn’t my paper! To completely remove fossil fuels from heating for all buildings, I think thermal energy networks could be a promising option in cold, dense areas. As others have pointed out, building and heat pump efficiency upgrades and distributed solar and batteries are also tools.
I really appreciate you sharing that, will have to take a closer look when I’m not on mobile!
December 24, 2024 at 9:13 PM
I really appreciate you sharing that, will have to take a closer look when I’m not on mobile!
I’m not sure! I think they could be a cost-competitive option for getting everyone decarbonized heat in cold areas, which wouldn’t be most places in the US. Would love to see/do work to have a more specific answer.
December 24, 2024 at 9:12 PM
I’m not sure! I think they could be a cost-competitive option for getting everyone decarbonized heat in cold areas, which wouldn’t be most places in the US. Would love to see/do work to have a more specific answer.
I would love to know too!
December 24, 2024 at 9:08 PM
I would love to know too!
As @energysmartwv.bsky.social pointed out, distributed batteries and PV can definitely help alleviate distribution grid stress (plus other benefits!). If a utility-scale battery meets this peak, you still need the wire and transformer capacity to bring that electricity to buildings.
December 24, 2024 at 8:55 PM
As @energysmartwv.bsky.social pointed out, distributed batteries and PV can definitely help alleviate distribution grid stress (plus other benefits!). If a utility-scale battery meets this peak, you still need the wire and transformer capacity to bring that electricity to buildings.
Yes, but I’m concerned about the cost and safety of maintaining a gas system used only on the coldest days of the year with declining users. My thinking is shaped by @gruberte.bsky.social and @shastingssimon.bsky.social’s work on the mid-transition:
Designing the mid‐transition: A review of medium‐term challenges for coordinated decarbonization in the United States
Decarbonization will include a mid-transition with both carbon-based and zero-carbon systems and should explicitly plan fossil carbon phase out.
wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
December 24, 2024 at 8:52 PM
Yes, but I’m concerned about the cost and safety of maintaining a gas system used only on the coldest days of the year with declining users. My thinking is shaped by @gruberte.bsky.social and @shastingssimon.bsky.social’s work on the mid-transition:
I’m curious where you got that peak heating demand drop! Extreme cold events still seem like a risk to me.
I agree that improving building efficiency and expanding interconnection could help a lot— both have been tricky to accomplish so far!
I agree that improving building efficiency and expanding interconnection could help a lot— both have been tricky to accomplish so far!
December 24, 2024 at 8:48 PM
I’m curious where you got that peak heating demand drop! Extreme cold events still seem like a risk to me.
I agree that improving building efficiency and expanding interconnection could help a lot— both have been tricky to accomplish so far!
I agree that improving building efficiency and expanding interconnection could help a lot— both have been tricky to accomplish so far!
I’m on the grid planning side, so I’m working on trying to keep grid planners from sweating when you’re (hopefully) very successful!
December 24, 2024 at 7:26 PM
I’m on the grid planning side, so I’m working on trying to keep grid planners from sweating when you’re (hopefully) very successful!
Yes— important to reduce heating emissions in the short-run (like hybrids) and find solutions for eliminating heating emissions by mid-century. In my mind, thermal networks can play a role in the latter. People in cold places could use a hybrid for the next 20 years while tech develops/improves.
December 24, 2024 at 6:55 PM
Yes— important to reduce heating emissions in the short-run (like hybrids) and find solutions for eliminating heating emissions by mid-century. In my mind, thermal networks can play a role in the latter. People in cold places could use a hybrid for the next 20 years while tech develops/improves.
Lower loads would probably restrict the big increases in peak to the coldest regions of the Northeast, Upper Midwest, and Rockies, like in the increased efficiency case. Agree that distributed solar and batteries could help. I think this is a 2040+ problem, but worth starting to explore options.
December 24, 2024 at 6:51 PM
Lower loads would probably restrict the big increases in peak to the coldest regions of the Northeast, Upper Midwest, and Rockies, like in the increased efficiency case. Agree that distributed solar and batteries could help. I think this is a 2040+ problem, but worth starting to explore options.
Not my chart! From this paper:
Electricity Load Implications of Space Heating Decarbonization Pathways
We model building space heating electrification across the United States, computing a potential 70% increase in nationwide electricity delivery capacity with very low capacity factors. Without increasing peak electric loads, fossil fuels can be reduced to 43% of total heating energy using current heat pump technology and 23% with future advances. Dual source systems with heat pumps and some fossil fuel equipment retained for the coldest weather could reduce fossil fuels to 1%–3% of heating energy without electricity capacity upgrades.
www.cell.com
December 24, 2024 at 6:47 PM
Not my chart! From this paper:
Thanks, Justin!
December 24, 2024 at 4:52 PM
Thanks, Justin!
Even with air-source heat pump efficiency improvements, peak demand increases are high in the Northeast, Upper Midwest, and Rocky Mountains. Add electric vehicle demand and these areas could be facing huge distribution system upgrades.
December 24, 2024 at 4:44 PM
Even with air-source heat pump efficiency improvements, peak demand increases are high in the Northeast, Upper Midwest, and Rocky Mountains. Add electric vehicle demand and these areas could be facing huge distribution system upgrades.