Absolutely delighted that our @theifs.bsky.social work evaluating the effects of Sure Start centres won the "Publication of the Year" prize at last night's @smartthinking.bsky.social awards!

It's wonderful to be recognised for the quality and impact of our work.
ifs.org.uk/publications...

The Spending Review announced that spending would rise by £1.6bn in cash terms over the SR.

A bit over half of this reflects the entitlement rollout anticipated in March 2023.

But there's ~£600m to top up spending. That will meet most, but not all, of the spending pressures.

A reasonable forecast for spending from 2026-27 onwards - once entitlements are fully rolled out - is around £5bn in today's prices.

Could easily end up several hundred million lower or higher.

Side note: almost all local authorities saw higher-than-expected take-up last year.

The exceptions were (almost) all in London, where there is some evidence that eligible and interested parents are less likely to actually find a childcare spot. Might point to capacity issues?

But we've already seen a BIG upwards revision in spending plans for 2024-25, driven by a big increase in expected take-up.

We now think spending on new entitlements last year was £500m - 28%!! - higher than we had thought in December 2023.

And speaking of funding - schools are expecting to get £2.61 per meal.

If funding had risen in line with inflation after universal infant FSM were introduced in 2014, that would be around £3.18 per meal.

But you can also look at a broader menu (!) of policy options, beyond school food.

Colleagues @theifs.bsky.social estimate the policy will bring about 100k kids out of poverty. Use their (very cool) tool to see for yourself how that stacks up against other policy options:
ifs.org.uk/calculators/...

What about those long-term effects?

Expanding eligibility to all families on UC targets those with low, but not the very lowest, incomes.

If what you care about is reducing child poverty, this is both cheaper and more targeted at those on low incomes than other options, like universal provision.

Why "in the long term"?

Transitional protections introduced in 2018 have meant *lots* more kids currently get FSM - that's the main driver of the big rise in eligibility we've seen.

More kids currently getting free lunches = lower costs from expanding eligibility, but also fewer day-one winners.

On its face, this looks like a big Budget for childcare.

But that £1.8 billion is just a recommitment to the plans Chancellor Hunt announced in March 2023.

Where this Budget really will change things is childcare settings’ bills: they face a triple whammy on pay. (1/8)