Tiens, c'est marrant, le +21% c'est exactement l'inflation sur la période.
Donc en valeur réelle la SCSP n'a pas augmenté.
Alors que le nombre d'étudiants (boom naissance an 2000) oui.

- increasingly structural

as Imports and Exports between them are less and less similar (the US concentrating its exports, notably toward oil, and buying traditional manufacturing)

Complexity of US exports to the EU is declining because of that. Could be concerning in the long run.

The trade deficit the US run with the EU is :

- increasing since 2010 (x3)

-even higher when computed in Value Added

Quand on pense que c'est le quotidien de référence de droite et qu'on voit ces erreurs... çafaitreflechir.

Il y a deux jours ils parlaient de cette élection comme d'une "primaire"...

Pssst @lefigaro.fr il faut pas oublier de changer les légendes des photos hein.

Pourtant ces données existent, on les retrouve dans certaines publications locales, comme ici en pour l'occitanie en 2017

occitanie.dreets.gouv.fr/sites/occita... (p.6)

Alors que tous les économistes de la planète viennent de faire une leçon sur les déficits commerciaux depuis un mois, le gouvernement Français nous affiche un graphique "nous importons bien plus que nous exportons, et c'est autant que nous pourrions produire".

Mais??

A new version of *complexity* Stata module is up on SSC.
Direct download from Stata : "ssc install complexity,replace"

Complexity computes indexes reflecting the sophistication of a specialization pattern, following www.pnas.org/doi/pdf/10.1... seminal paper.

This is the product space with in blue products currently exported with a positive RCA by France, and in red, the targets (easily reachable & complex).

15/16

Those 333 goods are mostly concentrated in nuclear, electrical and chemical industries.

14/16

If we focus on France (ranked 13th in potential of accessible complexity), we identify 333 “targets”, that is products that are simultaneously Complex (more than average) and close to the products France already exports.

13/16

I compute the complexity of countries, products, and following the above mentioned method the potential of “easy” or “reachable” complexity gain. It is highly correlated with the current complexity score.
Top 5 is Spain, India, Korea, Netherlands, and China. (See Alt for Germany outlying)

12/16

As an example, I apply this using 2022 trade data from BACI (HSrev2017, 4 digits), with 159 countries and 1180 products.
The estimated Product Space is the following (using Force Atlas 2 algorithm in Gephi). We reach similar result to what was described in the seminal work of ECI.

11/16

Therefore by knowing the given specialization of a country, you can map a countries’ position in the Product Space as done in the first edition of the Atlas of Economic Complexity (2013)

7/16

An adjacent concept in this literature is the Product Space : a network of products, where the connections reflects the probability of the two products to be simultaneously exported with a comparative advantage. The higher the proximity of goods, the more likely they use the same set of capabilities

First of all, “What you export matters” for your growth dynamic. I don’t think many people would argue with that, but Hausman et al. (2007) and & Hausmann (2009) explain it quite convincingly and provide metrics + empirical evidence of it.

2/16