@redsoxstats.bsky.social What is the price you would be willing to pay for Sandy?

Re-made the univariate model with Percent IVB Change as the dependent variable instead of IVB Z-Score. Coefficient for temperature is 0.002, or 0.2% for every degree change in temperature, 2% for every 10 degrees. Correlation is a bit weaker for IVB percent difference than IVB z-score.

In looking at Freddy Peralta's first start of the season (per @lancebroz.bsky.social suggestion, also at Citi Field), we see a similar Z-Score outperformance by most of the game's pitchers. This suggests that ballpark structure could play a greater role in pitch movement than initially understood.

It has been mentioned by many, including Buehler himself, that the weather in NLCS G3 had a strong effect on pitch movement. To better understand how weather impacts one's 4S iVB Z-score, we can train a linear model.

Walker Buehler had a strong outing in G3 of the NLCS. His 4S Fastball averaged 20.2" of iVB, outperforming his season average of 16.6". Other pitchers in this game saw similar outperformances.

Digging into Walker Buehler's playoff performances. Found the fairly strong relationship between a pitcher's IVB and temperature to be interesting:

First attempt writing about baseball:
open.substack.com/pub/chuckrak...

@redsoxstats.bsky.social think Michael Conforto signing means Dodgers are out on Teoscar?