Christian Spence
@christianspence.co.uk
Economics · Data Science · Public Policy
Founder & Chief Economist @economic-analytics.co.uk
Economic Data Lead @open-innovations.org
Chief Economist & Fellow @insplacemanagement.bsky.social
#EconSky #Rstats #Rshiny
Founder & Chief Economist @economic-analytics.co.uk
Economic Data Lead @open-innovations.org
Chief Economist & Fellow @insplacemanagement.bsky.social
#EconSky #Rstats #Rshiny
"For too long, Britain has been held back by governments that, because they lack a relentless focus on long-term ends, are buffeted about by events."
Kier Starmer, Labour Manifesto 2024
Kier Starmer, Labour Manifesto 2024
November 14, 2025 at 8:59 AM
"For too long, Britain has been held back by governments that, because they lack a relentless focus on long-term ends, are buffeted about by events."
Kier Starmer, Labour Manifesto 2024
Kier Starmer, Labour Manifesto 2024
This week I have mostly been reading ... @theifs.bsky.social 1978 Meade Report: The Structure and Reform of Direct Taxation.
October 2, 2025 at 3:55 PM
This week I have mostly been reading ... @theifs.bsky.social 1978 Meade Report: The Structure and Reform of Direct Taxation.
@alphaville.ft.com is always worth reading for many, many reasons, but the occasional sarcastic digs are always up there. Not content with aiming at the Bank of England's communications on QT (answer in two minutes), today the target is French diacriticals: Sóćíéťé Géńéřáľë
September 18, 2025 at 10:59 AM
@alphaville.ft.com is always worth reading for many, many reasons, but the occasional sarcastic digs are always up there. Not content with aiming at the Bank of England's communications on QT (answer in two minutes), today the target is French diacriticals: Sóćíéťé Géńéřáľë
Current trend from the latest 3-months on annual data? Growth is low, stable and slowing. That seems the key takeaway at the moment. Changing that is harder work, and hopefully we'll know more at the Budget on 26 November. (7/7)
September 15, 2025 at 11:00 AM
Current trend from the latest 3-months on annual data? Growth is low, stable and slowing. That seems the key takeaway at the moment. Changing that is harder work, and hopefully we'll know more at the Budget on 26 November. (7/7)
My own preference has always been to use 3-months on the same 3-months of the previous year for annual comparison data, at least for the headline "what is growth doing", as it's easier to tell a long-term, transparent story before using the others to dive into detail. (4/7)
September 15, 2025 at 11:00 AM
My own preference has always been to use 3-months on the same 3-months of the previous year for annual comparison data, at least for the headline "what is growth doing", as it's easier to tell a long-term, transparent story before using the others to dive into detail. (4/7)
This makes a lot sense. The monthly GDP data is _extremely_ volatile, and too often causes strong media reaction to a number which will almost certainly be revised.
Charts below show the difference between monthly growth and 3-monthly growth. Both are "right", but they tell different stories. (3/7)
Charts below show the difference between monthly growth and 3-monthly growth. Both are "right", but they tell different stories. (3/7)
September 15, 2025 at 11:00 AM
This makes a lot sense. The monthly GDP data is _extremely_ volatile, and too often causes strong media reaction to a number which will almost certainly be revised.
Charts below show the difference between monthly growth and 3-monthly growth. Both are "right", but they tell different stories. (3/7)
Charts below show the difference between monthly growth and 3-monthly growth. Both are "right", but they tell different stories. (3/7)
Great thread and article linked here from @jpspencer.bsky.social. There's also a pre-/post-Covid story here with the North generally, and driven by the city regions, which shows their growth has outperformed the UK since the pandemic.
Working on more research on this over coming months.
Working on more research on this over coming months.
September 4, 2025 at 8:09 AM
Great thread and article linked here from @jpspencer.bsky.social. There's also a pre-/post-Covid story here with the North generally, and driven by the city regions, which shows their growth has outperformed the UK since the pandemic.
Working on more research on this over coming months.
Working on more research on this over coming months.
Do you routinely work in the late-night economy? If so, come to a meeting at 9am ... 🤦♂️
May 8, 2025 at 2:07 PM
Do you routinely work in the late-night economy? If so, come to a meeting at 9am ... 🤦♂️
Good news from the Office for National Statistics this morning: SIC2026 is coming!
Screenshot from the morning email, latest update on their website is here: consultations.ons.gov.uk/external-aff...
Screenshot from the morning email, latest update on their website is here: consultations.ons.gov.uk/external-aff...
May 8, 2025 at 8:58 AM
Good news from the Office for National Statistics this morning: SIC2026 is coming!
Screenshot from the morning email, latest update on their website is here: consultations.ons.gov.uk/external-aff...
Screenshot from the morning email, latest update on their website is here: consultations.ons.gov.uk/external-aff...
We go live to the West Wing for the current tariff policy decision-making meeting.
April 9, 2025 at 5:49 PM
We go live to the West Wing for the current tariff policy decision-making meeting.
So, China has retaliated. The EU has retaliated. The UK is likely not large enough to make a material difference, though the risk of dumping is one the UK will have to seriously consider. For now, playing the WOPR card is probably for the best.
For now.
For now.
April 9, 2025 at 2:23 PM
So, China has retaliated. The EU has retaliated. The UK is likely not large enough to make a material difference, though the risk of dumping is one the UK will have to seriously consider. For now, playing the WOPR card is probably for the best.
For now.
For now.
Now for a fun (for some definition of fun) couple of days in Oxford for @theifs.bsky.social residential conference.
April 3, 2025 at 11:50 AM
Now for a fun (for some definition of fun) couple of days in Oxford for @theifs.bsky.social residential conference.
In today's spam: nothing says "high-performing digital solution" (mobile banking app!) like an agency running itself from an aol.com email address. I'm being spammed from the 1990s.
March 18, 2025 at 10:59 AM
In today's spam: nothing says "high-performing digital solution" (mobile banking app!) like an agency running itself from an aol.com email address. I'm being spammed from the 1990s.
Whilst going to Huddersfield can sometime feel like a trip to the 1980s, I didn't expect to see that I'd both time travelled and been annexed by Andy Burnham in the process.
March 13, 2025 at 6:54 AM
Whilst going to Huddersfield can sometime feel like a trip to the 1980s, I didn't expect to see that I'd both time travelled and been annexed by Andy Burnham in the process.
Big vibes of the days of regional banking today.
March 7, 2025 at 1:13 PM
Big vibes of the days of regional banking today.
Demonised? Far greater evidence for subsidy than demonisation.
March 5, 2025 at 11:52 AM
Demonised? Far greater evidence for subsidy than demonisation.
If VIX is up, I presume that this cures tariff-related congestion?
March 4, 2025 at 4:31 PM
If VIX is up, I presume that this cures tariff-related congestion?
Well, at least not *all* the markets are red ...
March 4, 2025 at 4:28 PM
Well, at least not *all* the markets are red ...
An (as usual) excellent blog from @sjwrenlewis.bsky.social on Labour and Growth. If finding what causes is growth is hard, discovering what holds it back is rather easier.
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/01/labo...
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/01/labo...
January 29, 2025 at 10:35 AM
An (as usual) excellent blog from @sjwrenlewis.bsky.social on Labour and Growth. If finding what causes is growth is hard, discovering what holds it back is rather easier.
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/01/labo...
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/01/labo...
In our house, Friday night is film night, and the older the better. This evening: Petrified Forest (1936) with Bette Davis, Leslie Howard and a young Humphrey Bogart.
But, from a contemporary perspective, this was fascinating.
"Tipping is un-American".
Plus ça change ...
But, from a contemporary perspective, this was fascinating.
"Tipping is un-American".
Plus ça change ...
January 24, 2025 at 8:05 PM
In our house, Friday night is film night, and the older the better. This evening: Petrified Forest (1936) with Bette Davis, Leslie Howard and a young Humphrey Bogart.
But, from a contemporary perspective, this was fascinating.
"Tipping is un-American".
Plus ça change ...
But, from a contemporary perspective, this was fascinating.
"Tipping is un-American".
Plus ça change ...
Thanks to @dlknowles.bsky.social for pushing this into my feed. Fascinating indeed. Great quote below (much of Jacobs' work is), and first I've heard of Whyte's "The Social Life of Small Urban Spaces", so that's going on the shopping list.
January 23, 2025 at 1:57 PM
Thanks to @dlknowles.bsky.social for pushing this into my feed. Fascinating indeed. Great quote below (much of Jacobs' work is), and first I've heard of Whyte's "The Social Life of Small Urban Spaces", so that's going on the shopping list.
I remember that at the time of the UK coalition government 2010-15, there was an attempt to overlay the two colours of the two parties to form a "coalition green".
A random, half-finished Guardian article from then has more ... www.theguardian.com/politics/201...
A random, half-finished Guardian article from then has more ... www.theguardian.com/politics/201...
January 8, 2025 at 8:24 AM
I remember that at the time of the UK coalition government 2010-15, there was an attempt to overlay the two colours of the two parties to form a "coalition green".
A random, half-finished Guardian article from then has more ... www.theguardian.com/politics/201...
A random, half-finished Guardian article from then has more ... www.theguardian.com/politics/201...