Chris Rugaber
@chrisrugaber.bsky.social
Federal Reserve, economy reporter. I root for the economy to do well. Tell me your stories: contact me on Signal at ChrisRugaber.01 and at crugaber@ap.org.
Boston Fed's Susan Collins is the latest Fed official to come out against another rate cut in December, putting a third cut this year at risk. Atlanta Fed's Bostic also forcefully spoke against another rate cut earlier Wednesday:
November 12, 2025 at 9:51 PM
Boston Fed's Susan Collins is the latest Fed official to come out against another rate cut in December, putting a third cut this year at risk. Atlanta Fed's Bostic also forcefully spoke against another rate cut earlier Wednesday:
Always nice to see the @apnews.com ahead …
November 10, 2025 at 3:00 PM
Always nice to see the @apnews.com ahead …
ADP's jobs tally shows a rebound last month with 42,000 net jobs gained, after 2 months of losses.
Yet high-paying sectors like professional & business services (accounting, etc.) and information (IT) lost jobs; so did restaurants & hotels, a worrying sign of a weak consumer:
Yet high-paying sectors like professional & business services (accounting, etc.) and information (IT) lost jobs; so did restaurants & hotels, a worrying sign of a weak consumer:
November 5, 2025 at 2:30 PM
ADP's jobs tally shows a rebound last month with 42,000 net jobs gained, after 2 months of losses.
Yet high-paying sectors like professional & business services (accounting, etc.) and information (IT) lost jobs; so did restaurants & hotels, a worrying sign of a weak consumer:
Yet high-paying sectors like professional & business services (accounting, etc.) and information (IT) lost jobs; so did restaurants & hotels, a worrying sign of a weak consumer:
The ISM's manufacturing report shows factory activity still declining in October, as production contracted. New orders did improve a bit. Employment also shrinking though less quickly, and prices moving up though not as fast as previous month:
November 3, 2025 at 3:14 PM
The ISM's manufacturing report shows factory activity still declining in October, as production contracted. New orders did improve a bit. Employment also shrinking though less quickly, and prices moving up though not as fast as previous month:
Goldman Sachs on the shutdown: “largest economic impact” of any shutdown
November 3, 2025 at 1:16 PM
Goldman Sachs on the shutdown: “largest economic impact” of any shutdown
Fed Governor Waller's two-word statement on this action:
October 16, 2025 at 7:38 PM
Fed Governor Waller's two-word statement on this action:
The Federal Reserve's minutes today paint a picture of a rate-setting committee that is all over the map. Our story makes some sense of it:
apnews.com/article/infl...
apnews.com/article/infl...
October 8, 2025 at 7:16 PM
The Federal Reserve's minutes today paint a picture of a rate-setting committee that is all over the map. Our story makes some sense of it:
apnews.com/article/infl...
apnews.com/article/infl...
Friday's ISM services report shows that tariffs are still flowing through the economy and raising prices. Am hearing this anecdotally from companies ... it takes time. (Not saying inflation is going to soar, but still):
October 3, 2025 at 3:28 PM
Friday's ISM services report shows that tariffs are still flowing through the economy and raising prices. Am hearing this anecdotally from companies ... it takes time. (Not saying inflation is going to soar, but still):
AP poll finds sharp drop in Republicans saying country is heading in right direction:
September 19, 2025 at 1:44 PM
AP poll finds sharp drop in Republicans saying country is heading in right direction:
ICYMI: Trump’s efforts to exert more control over the Federal Reserve could over time boost inflation and interest rates. Our story:
apnews.com/article/fede...
apnews.com/article/fede...
September 2, 2025 at 12:29 PM
ICYMI: Trump’s efforts to exert more control over the Federal Reserve could over time boost inflation and interest rates. Our story:
apnews.com/article/fede...
apnews.com/article/fede...
Data analysis indicates US businesses and consumers are paying at least 3/4 of tariffs:
First chart is Goldman Sachs' estimate of breakdown. Second is Capital Economics showing little decline in pre-tariff import prices, a sign exporters aren't cutting costs to offset duties:
First chart is Goldman Sachs' estimate of breakdown. Second is Capital Economics showing little decline in pre-tariff import prices, a sign exporters aren't cutting costs to offset duties:
August 11, 2025 at 3:38 PM
Data analysis indicates US businesses and consumers are paying at least 3/4 of tariffs:
First chart is Goldman Sachs' estimate of breakdown. Second is Capital Economics showing little decline in pre-tariff import prices, a sign exporters aren't cutting costs to offset duties:
First chart is Goldman Sachs' estimate of breakdown. Second is Capital Economics showing little decline in pre-tariff import prices, a sign exporters aren't cutting costs to offset duties:
One question for Trump: If the July jobs numbers were "rigged," as he claimed again this morning, will they at some point be withdrawn and replaced with "correct" numbers?
August 4, 2025 at 1:16 PM
One question for Trump: If the July jobs numbers were "rigged," as he claimed again this morning, will they at some point be withdrawn and replaced with "correct" numbers?
This doesn’t bode well for the future of economic data, particularly the CPI … (from New Yorker’s very good profile of Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick).
July 30, 2025 at 2:17 AM
This doesn’t bode well for the future of economic data, particularly the CPI … (from New Yorker’s very good profile of Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick).
It's probably too early to say we're seeing stagflation, but today's report on spending and prices shows durable goods prices rising steadily since January -- a likely tariff effect -- while overall spending is weakening.
apnews.com/article/infl...
apnews.com/article/infl...
June 27, 2025 at 2:42 PM
It's probably too early to say we're seeing stagflation, but today's report on spending and prices shows durable goods prices rising steadily since January -- a likely tariff effect -- while overall spending is weakening.
apnews.com/article/infl...
apnews.com/article/infl...
June 7, 2025 at 4:19 PM
Today's ISM services report suggests tariffs are working their way through supply chain, likely to boost prices soon. Still comments from survey respondents mixed:
June 4, 2025 at 2:19 PM
Today's ISM services report suggests tariffs are working their way through supply chain, likely to boost prices soon. Still comments from survey respondents mixed:
apnews.com/article/elec...
Man who blamed exposure to far-right content gets 3 years for threatening election officials:
Man who blamed exposure to far-right content gets 3 years for threatening election officials:
May 29, 2025 at 8:06 PM
apnews.com/article/elec...
Man who blamed exposure to far-right content gets 3 years for threatening election officials:
Man who blamed exposure to far-right content gets 3 years for threatening election officials:
What's happening with the US consumer?
Hard to gauge now, like rest of economy, but last month they cut back on imported items, such as clothes & sporting goods, with furniture and electronics also showing weak growth, while boosting spending at restaurants, bars and home and garden stores 🧵:
Hard to gauge now, like rest of economy, but last month they cut back on imported items, such as clothes & sporting goods, with furniture and electronics also showing weak growth, while boosting spending at restaurants, bars and home and garden stores 🧵:
May 15, 2025 at 2:00 PM
What's happening with the US consumer?
Hard to gauge now, like rest of economy, but last month they cut back on imported items, such as clothes & sporting goods, with furniture and electronics also showing weak growth, while boosting spending at restaurants, bars and home and garden stores 🧵:
Hard to gauge now, like rest of economy, but last month they cut back on imported items, such as clothes & sporting goods, with furniture and electronics also showing weak growth, while boosting spending at restaurants, bars and home and garden stores 🧵:
Big drop in consumer confidence for fifth straight month, at lowest level since May 2020:
April 29, 2025 at 2:11 PM
Big drop in consumer confidence for fifth straight month, at lowest level since May 2020:
Important chart from IMF today: The US has a goods trade deficit, which is driving Trump's tariffs.
Yet Germany has a trade surplus.
Both, however, are seeing similar trends in manufacturing: Roughly flat output, but falling employment from automation. #IMFMeetings
Yet Germany has a trade surplus.
Both, however, are seeing similar trends in manufacturing: Roughly flat output, but falling employment from automation. #IMFMeetings
April 22, 2025 at 2:15 PM
Important chart from IMF today: The US has a goods trade deficit, which is driving Trump's tariffs.
Yet Germany has a trade surplus.
Both, however, are seeing similar trends in manufacturing: Roughly flat output, but falling employment from automation. #IMFMeetings
Yet Germany has a trade surplus.
Both, however, are seeing similar trends in manufacturing: Roughly flat output, but falling employment from automation. #IMFMeetings
IMF, like many private economists, calculates US tariffs as highest since early 1900s: #econtwitter #IMFMeetings
April 22, 2025 at 1:26 PM
IMF, like many private economists, calculates US tariffs as highest since early 1900s: #econtwitter #IMFMeetings
As others have calculated, the IMF says US duties are now the highest since early 1900s:
April 17, 2025 at 3:50 PM
As others have calculated, the IMF says US duties are now the highest since early 1900s:
Interesting charts from IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva, on trade barriers around world. Her take: tariffs by other countries have been falling but stalled in past decade, while other barriers were rising, including in US it appears #EconSky: 🧵
April 17, 2025 at 3:49 PM
Interesting charts from IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva, on trade barriers around world. Her take: tariffs by other countries have been falling but stalled in past decade, while other barriers were rising, including in US it appears #EconSky: 🧵
