also "laboriously pretentious" is, itself, a laboriously pretentious phrase.

that said, I think it's possible the current info environment makes it basically impossible for a president to have Clinton 1999-like numbers on the economy.

but also, Biden inherited something in rough shape and made it better and Trump inherited something in excellent shape and made it worse. But that said, people are mostly responding to nominal prices (CPI has ticked up post April) and deteriorating job market (which Trump is largely responsible for)

I think it's both, actually! I do think there's a *structural* reason that nearly every governor is popular and the incumbent president is always underwater.

I think the tariff aspect is fascinating. Clearly he actually believes in it, but I think he also thought - not crazily - that this is also an issue that would play well in his district, and I bet if you polled the district the tariffs are way way underwater. They are really a political disaster.

Let’s just say it definitely does NOT pass for itself as this juncture

Bukele is (unironically) a popularist king

wait did they withdraw the appeal?

sadly, he was pretty consistent on this through most of his life

The idea that all this stuff is both fixed and obvious strikes me as…not rigorous.

So in this hypo back in 2003 you’d be calling people and yelling at them for opposing the Iraq war, and then at some point you’d have to switch to calls to yell at people for being too pro war and the inflection point would be so obvious that only blinkered incentives would be getting in the way?