Thanks for the forecast Nick. Also possibilities for elevated warm front storms mid to late next week…. Perhaps…maybe

I couldn’t agree more and have been thinking this for over a week now

*right

#SSW on GFS 18z tight here. Bloomin’ amazing charts. 2009 memories

Yes. I totally agree. That’s why I chose SSW’s as a starting point. Would love to be able to determine SPV strength with and without SSWs. And then the incidence of SSWs against this background. How significant is VI in preventing or enabling SSWs?

So if you were to exclude from the mean all SSW events for say a period of -10 to +20 days, would it significantly alter?. Basically I think there are 2 means to measure vortex strength and the one without SSWs will be a ‘truer’ average of SPV strength

And another thing, I would love to see mean charts where all warming events were removed and the residual u and temp means are shown. Basically, what is the mean without SSW’s and is that a true guideline for normal Strat pv? Because SSW’s significantly skew an underlying mean u speed

Oh and I wasn’t being sarcastic about the timing bit. VI is oft overlooked, but I genuinely feel that its trop influence will come back to haunt it up following Storm Eowyn. Wave 2 trop> wave 1 Strat >wave 2 both.

Timing is great Amy. Can VI come to an abrupt halt in the next few weeks? The VI may have actually set off a chain of events that subsequently may lead to its demise

Thanks Tony. We both know that there is a long way to go and strength of the second wave 2 critical.

Or it could mean plenty more work needed on Strat dynamics from all longe range models

Yes exactly like that! Hadn’t read that paper but great to know it exists and without studying it or knowing about it, I could work it out for myself. Storm Eowyn did a lot more than just batter the ROI and Scotland.

And certainly warrants further investigation

Yep it’s doesn’t snow until it snows. Funny enough it was storm eowyn that triggered me. Whilst everyone was looking at the wind speeds I was looking at the hemispheric pattern. I think there is something in strong vortices at the periphery of an elongated trop pv. That’s the trigger imo

lol. The upcoming pattern certainly awoke me up from my winter slumber at the end of last week. Will be interesting to follow. We know a strong vortex can be brought down (Jan 2009). Stronger waves equal stronger rips…..is my theory.

If I could model what my thoughts were then the 06z GFS run would be it…….Charts by wetterzentrale
Just quicker than I imagined. Pity it’s in lala land

Yep. Been watching this for a week or two now. Best chance this winter before the Strat fires up

Cheers. Hopefully it will reignite my passion for Strat based trop interactions that has waned since it became so mainstream ( and still misunderstood) since those early days 15+ years ago