Chill Crypto
@chillcrypto.bsky.social
Crypto investing without the drama, hype and political bs. Find me on TradingView @chillcrypto (https://www.tradingview.com/u/chillcrypto/)... I also have a domain for sale: buymeasatoshi.com
#Bitcoin relief rally. Trend is down - but price movement is positive.
#BTC is challenging the 30-day moving average next. The last time we lost the 30D MA was at 114k. We've been below since. The 5-day MA generally indicates weakness when below the 30-day and strength when above.
#BTC is challenging the 30-day moving average next. The last time we lost the 30D MA was at 114k. We've been below since. The 5-day MA generally indicates weakness when below the 30-day and strength when above.
December 3, 2025 at 10:51 PM
#Bitcoin selling pressure remains despite building a constructive base, as long as we are above 90,340k.
To move higher we need a catalyst to liquidate shorts in the 91.5-95k range. Until then, downside pressure remains.
To move higher we need a catalyst to liquidate shorts in the 91.5-95k range. Until then, downside pressure remains.
November 30, 2025 at 4:54 AM
#Bitcoin selling pressure remains despite building a constructive base, as long as we are above 90,340k.
To move higher we need a catalyst to liquidate shorts in the 91.5-95k range. Until then, downside pressure remains.
To move higher we need a catalyst to liquidate shorts in the 91.5-95k range. Until then, downside pressure remains.
Holding this moving average is critical for continued rebound. (Shown is a 56-period SMA for the 5-Hour timeframe.) Positive that we pushed up above, but we need to confirm and move higher. We're re-testing at the moment.
November 27, 2025 at 3:14 PM
Holding this moving average is critical for continued rebound. (Shown is a 56-period SMA for the 5-Hour timeframe.) Positive that we pushed up above, but we need to confirm and move higher. We're re-testing at the moment.
In 2021 after #Bitcoin broke below the 400-Day SMA, we fell another 27%. If we copy/paste that correction to the current move, it would take us down to the 74k range. Which coincidentally is our April 2025 low.
If we do hit 74k, I'm buying back in. Then will take profit if we hit the 400-Day again
If we do hit 74k, I'm buying back in. Then will take profit if we hit the 400-Day again
November 23, 2025 at 12:13 AM
In 2021 after #Bitcoin broke below the 400-Day SMA, we fell another 27%. If we copy/paste that correction to the current move, it would take us down to the 74k range. Which coincidentally is our April 2025 low.
If we do hit 74k, I'm buying back in. Then will take profit if we hit the 400-Day again
If we do hit 74k, I'm buying back in. Then will take profit if we hit the 400-Day again
#Bitcoin rebounding from here is going to be a big stretch. No real catalyst at the moment. Recovery to 98k is your next exit opportunity.
November 21, 2025 at 3:28 PM
#Bitcoin rebounding from here is going to be a big stretch. No real catalyst at the moment. Recovery to 98k is your next exit opportunity.
#Bitcoin Fear and Greed hits lowest level since 24-Feb-2025 (11). 30% of Bitcoin held is at a loss. Historically these lowest levels are reserved for 'bear market lows'.
For comparison, 35% Bitcoin held at a loss Summer 2021. Fear and Greed was at 6 June 2022. Chart courtesy Coinglass.
For comparison, 35% Bitcoin held at a loss Summer 2021. Fear and Greed was at 6 June 2022. Chart courtesy Coinglass.
November 15, 2025 at 11:09 PM
#Bitcoin Fear and Greed hits lowest level since 24-Feb-2025 (11). 30% of Bitcoin held is at a loss. Historically these lowest levels are reserved for 'bear market lows'.
For comparison, 35% Bitcoin held at a loss Summer 2021. Fear and Greed was at 6 June 2022. Chart courtesy Coinglass.
For comparison, 35% Bitcoin held at a loss Summer 2021. Fear and Greed was at 6 June 2022. Chart courtesy Coinglass.
Just a what if... Projected #Bitcoin low target based on Jan-April price action = 86k.
This all depends on whether we lose 96k which is the short-term holder cost basis. Capitulation will accelerate the further down we go. All eyes will be on short term holder action.
This all depends on whether we lose 96k which is the short-term holder cost basis. Capitulation will accelerate the further down we go. All eyes will be on short term holder action.
November 14, 2025 at 6:15 PM
Just a what if... Projected #Bitcoin low target based on Jan-April price action = 86k.
This all depends on whether we lose 96k which is the short-term holder cost basis. Capitulation will accelerate the further down we go. All eyes will be on short term holder action.
This all depends on whether we lose 96k which is the short-term holder cost basis. Capitulation will accelerate the further down we go. All eyes will be on short term holder action.
Coinglass reports the same whale just went 20x LONG leverage on #Bitcoin and #Ethereum (approx 3mil each trade) and at the same time went 5X SHORT on Solana to cover losses should we pull back. Seems nobody knows which way this is going.
200-Day is at 110k, below that has risk of rejection.
200-Day is at 110k, below that has risk of rejection.
November 9, 2025 at 6:14 PM
#BTC You should always prepare for best and worst case scenario. Yes, the trajectory is down. But we can expect bear-market rallies.
Knowing that, Tuesday was an over-reaction and Wednesday is 'reverting to the mean' and rally (small or big, we don't know). Thursday will tell us the direction.
Knowing that, Tuesday was an over-reaction and Wednesday is 'reverting to the mean' and rally (small or big, we don't know). Thursday will tell us the direction.
November 5, 2025 at 4:46 PM
#BTC You should always prepare for best and worst case scenario. Yes, the trajectory is down. But we can expect bear-market rallies.
Knowing that, Tuesday was an over-reaction and Wednesday is 'reverting to the mean' and rally (small or big, we don't know). Thursday will tell us the direction.
Knowing that, Tuesday was an over-reaction and Wednesday is 'reverting to the mean' and rally (small or big, we don't know). Thursday will tell us the direction.
So the big question I have is: Is this time like April 2025?
In April we hit a low on Monday and then confirmed on Wednesday which was a big day up.
That would put this Tuesday as a low and then confirming on Thursday with a big day up. We should know soon if we are repeating, or further down.
In April we hit a low on Monday and then confirmed on Wednesday which was a big day up.
That would put this Tuesday as a low and then confirming on Thursday with a big day up. We should know soon if we are repeating, or further down.
November 4, 2025 at 9:26 PM
So the big question I have is: Is this time like April 2025?
In April we hit a low on Monday and then confirmed on Wednesday which was a big day up.
That would put this Tuesday as a low and then confirming on Thursday with a big day up. We should know soon if we are repeating, or further down.
In April we hit a low on Monday and then confirmed on Wednesday which was a big day up.
That would put this Tuesday as a low and then confirming on Thursday with a big day up. We should know soon if we are repeating, or further down.
#Bitcoin 'officially' in the red. We will see a 'relief rally' at some point. Right now that target is 108,200.
TBD when we put in a bottom but we're likely close for this pullback. 98k is gonna be 'max pain' for most short term holders, so if we lose that then a deeper correction will follow.
TBD when we put in a bottom but we're likely close for this pullback. 98k is gonna be 'max pain' for most short term holders, so if we lose that then a deeper correction will follow.
November 4, 2025 at 8:37 PM
#Bitcoin 'officially' in the red. We will see a 'relief rally' at some point. Right now that target is 108,200.
TBD when we put in a bottom but we're likely close for this pullback. 98k is gonna be 'max pain' for most short term holders, so if we lose that then a deeper correction will follow.
TBD when we put in a bottom but we're likely close for this pullback. 98k is gonna be 'max pain' for most short term holders, so if we lose that then a deeper correction will follow.
Yes. It's looking almost certain at this point. When we broke below the 200-Day it was turning bearish.
The yellow line below is a big threshold. On the daily when price has moved negatively enough to fall below that line, we have only on 3 other occasions rebounded positive in the past 10 years.
The yellow line below is a big threshold. On the daily when price has moved negatively enough to fall below that line, we have only on 3 other occasions rebounded positive in the past 10 years.
November 4, 2025 at 4:19 PM
Yes. It's looking almost certain at this point. When we broke below the 200-Day it was turning bearish.
The yellow line below is a big threshold. On the daily when price has moved negatively enough to fall below that line, we have only on 3 other occasions rebounded positive in the past 10 years.
The yellow line below is a big threshold. On the daily when price has moved negatively enough to fall below that line, we have only on 3 other occasions rebounded positive in the past 10 years.
#Bitcoin fighting to stay above 106k. Now below the 200-Day moving average. A break below 102k could signal the end of the cycle, and beginning of a bear market.
Two images comparing 2021 and 2025. Blue line is the 200D. Lower graph is the directional price volatility/velocity. Red is not good.
Two images comparing 2021 and 2025. Blue line is the 200D. Lower graph is the directional price volatility/velocity. Red is not good.
November 4, 2025 at 3:54 AM
#Bitcoin fighting to stay above 106k. Now below the 200-Day moving average. A break below 102k could signal the end of the cycle, and beginning of a bear market.
Two images comparing 2021 and 2025. Blue line is the 200D. Lower graph is the directional price volatility/velocity. Red is not good.
Two images comparing 2021 and 2025. Blue line is the 200D. Lower graph is the directional price volatility/velocity. Red is not good.
In March 2025, #Bitcoin overshot the 5D 55-moving average by about 6%. #BTC recovered from there (and possibly this would have been the low) but then came the 'tariff tantrum'.
At the current 5D 55-level that would bring #Bitcoin down to around 98k. Maximum pain at that point for sure.
At the current 5D 55-level that would bring #Bitcoin down to around 98k. Maximum pain at that point for sure.
October 30, 2025 at 7:50 PM
If #Bitcoin is done - what's the next downside target?
- 109K is at the current 200-day moving average price.
- 99K is at the current 55-week moving average price.
109k looks possible. But unlike April's tariff panic, it's unlikely we have enough selling pressure to get to 99k in the near-term.
- 109K is at the current 200-day moving average price.
- 99K is at the current 55-week moving average price.
109k looks possible. But unlike April's tariff panic, it's unlikely we have enough selling pressure to get to 99k in the near-term.
October 29, 2025 at 2:31 AM
If #Bitcoin is done - what's the next downside target?
- 109K is at the current 200-day moving average price.
- 99K is at the current 55-week moving average price.
109k looks possible. But unlike April's tariff panic, it's unlikely we have enough selling pressure to get to 99k in the near-term.
- 109K is at the current 200-day moving average price.
- 99K is at the current 55-week moving average price.
109k looks possible. But unlike April's tariff panic, it's unlikely we have enough selling pressure to get to 99k in the near-term.
