Chase Lee
@chase13.bsky.social
Brevity is not my gift. PM at Doxa Capital. CFA. CofC alum. girldad x2. Nothing here is investment advice.
Happy for everyone just rolling in it with all their AI trades they think are obvious and shitcos.
I’m just here to say this isn’t my market. Hasn’t been since April.
Just owning it. Not at all an environment I operate well in.
Know your strengths and weaknesses I guess? lol
I’m just here to say this isn’t my market. Hasn’t been since April.
Just owning it. Not at all an environment I operate well in.
Know your strengths and weaknesses I guess? lol
October 24, 2025 at 2:36 PM
Happy for everyone just rolling in it with all their AI trades they think are obvious and shitcos.
I’m just here to say this isn’t my market. Hasn’t been since April.
Just owning it. Not at all an environment I operate well in.
Know your strengths and weaknesses I guess? lol
I’m just here to say this isn’t my market. Hasn’t been since April.
Just owning it. Not at all an environment I operate well in.
Know your strengths and weaknesses I guess? lol
I really think there is signal in the recent OpenAI pivot. Yes it’s “well they need to have big rev to pay for the big obligations to raise more big money to make god”
If that’s how the trajectory is going a lot of coattails cos are gonna be big mad.
If that’s how the trajectory is going a lot of coattails cos are gonna be big mad.
October 21, 2025 at 5:53 PM
I really think there is signal in the recent OpenAI pivot. Yes it’s “well they need to have big rev to pay for the big obligations to raise more big money to make god”
If that’s how the trajectory is going a lot of coattails cos are gonna be big mad.
If that’s how the trajectory is going a lot of coattails cos are gonna be big mad.
I just don’t know mate. The karpathy stuff, Demis tweet on the OpenAI guys math tweet. OpenAI biz shifts. User slowing graphs.
Lots of smoke by very informed people differentiating llms from agi and resetting mile high expectations.
Just don’t think oracle has picked up on this yet lol
Lots of smoke by very informed people differentiating llms from agi and resetting mile high expectations.
Just don’t think oracle has picked up on this yet lol
October 19, 2025 at 2:52 AM
I just don’t know mate. The karpathy stuff, Demis tweet on the OpenAI guys math tweet. OpenAI biz shifts. User slowing graphs.
Lots of smoke by very informed people differentiating llms from agi and resetting mile high expectations.
Just don’t think oracle has picked up on this yet lol
Lots of smoke by very informed people differentiating llms from agi and resetting mile high expectations.
Just don’t think oracle has picked up on this yet lol
Barnums (JPM cfo) view on the Econ just now is exactly how I see it too.
October 14, 2025 at 1:00 PM
Barnums (JPM cfo) view on the Econ just now is exactly how I see it too.
I do wonder how much of the mkt is held up by anthropic and OpenAI going around and saying “ok cool you got me covered for 2030 in case I need it?” to 4 different companies.
September 10, 2025 at 6:41 PM
I do wonder how much of the mkt is held up by anthropic and OpenAI going around and saying “ok cool you got me covered for 2030 in case I need it?” to 4 different companies.
Innovation and computers are cool. But it’s still wild to me that I left my house at 7 in Charlotte and I’m center downtown Philly in 4 hours flat.
September 4, 2025 at 3:07 PM
Innovation and computers are cool. But it’s still wild to me that I left my house at 7 in Charlotte and I’m center downtown Philly in 4 hours flat.
Curiosity question- did intel dilute themselves 10% or where did this 10% come from? Or no one knows?
August 25, 2025 at 1:06 PM
Curiosity question- did intel dilute themselves 10% or where did this 10% come from? Or no one knows?
I don’t know about this mate
August 22, 2025 at 2:39 PM
I don’t know about this mate
I embarked on an experiment - create a small, secure CRM. I can’t code anything btw. I’ve used all 3 AIs to do it, and let me tell you-
Gemini is **very good**
Blows the other two out of the water.
GitHub ui, firebase deploy using firestore and GCP.
Just reporting my experience
Gemini is **very good**
Blows the other two out of the water.
GitHub ui, firebase deploy using firestore and GCP.
Just reporting my experience
August 15, 2025 at 4:02 PM
I embarked on an experiment - create a small, secure CRM. I can’t code anything btw. I’ve used all 3 AIs to do it, and let me tell you-
Gemini is **very good**
Blows the other two out of the water.
GitHub ui, firebase deploy using firestore and GCP.
Just reporting my experience
Gemini is **very good**
Blows the other two out of the water.
GitHub ui, firebase deploy using firestore and GCP.
Just reporting my experience
Not a complaining post about gpt5- works good for me. But I can appreciate the “step change” isn’t there, and is worse in some things. That in and of itself I would think is a thesis killer for some of the AI right tails out there.
But alas, this mkt is p weird.
But alas, this mkt is p weird.
August 11, 2025 at 12:04 PM
Not a complaining post about gpt5- works good for me. But I can appreciate the “step change” isn’t there, and is worse in some things. That in and of itself I would think is a thesis killer for some of the AI right tails out there.
But alas, this mkt is p weird.
But alas, this mkt is p weird.
So expect a lot of made up PRs or worst case, a forced bad allocation of capital.
August 6, 2025 at 9:44 PM
So expect a lot of made up PRs or worst case, a forced bad allocation of capital.
lol on the zoetis call- ques about if they’re included in tariffs-
“Honestly we don’t know yet, it’s not really clear.”
Sure guys, uncertainty def gone. 😂
“Honestly we don’t know yet, it’s not really clear.”
Sure guys, uncertainty def gone. 😂
August 5, 2025 at 1:21 PM
lol on the zoetis call- ques about if they’re included in tariffs-
“Honestly we don’t know yet, it’s not really clear.”
Sure guys, uncertainty def gone. 😂
“Honestly we don’t know yet, it’s not really clear.”
Sure guys, uncertainty def gone. 😂
So meta is spending near 30% of rev on capex. And they’ll stand up the 1mn token clusters or whatever. So it’s just assumed they’ll be a winner.
But they don’t even have a top model. And when their $1bn ai team makes one- it’ll be the best?
Not recognized enough that maybe meta fails.
But they don’t even have a top model. And when their $1bn ai team makes one- it’ll be the best?
Not recognized enough that maybe meta fails.
August 4, 2025 at 8:08 PM
So meta is spending near 30% of rev on capex. And they’ll stand up the 1mn token clusters or whatever. So it’s just assumed they’ll be a winner.
But they don’t even have a top model. And when their $1bn ai team makes one- it’ll be the best?
Not recognized enough that maybe meta fails.
But they don’t even have a top model. And when their $1bn ai team makes one- it’ll be the best?
Not recognized enough that maybe meta fails.
Yah everyone always poking fun at adp, now it’s all we have lol
August 1, 2025 at 6:25 PM
Yah everyone always poking fun at adp, now it’s all we have lol
What’s to say the July number isn’t gonna be revised down 100k?
August 1, 2025 at 1:11 PM
What’s to say the July number isn’t gonna be revised down 100k?
On one side, a mercantilist with twitter is keeping rates high by fueling goods inflation, then on the other side a group of 5 or so mgmt teams are keeping rates high by throwing as much money at AI build as they can find.
Both entities basically holding the rest of the economy hostage. Wild
Both entities basically holding the rest of the economy hostage. Wild
July 31, 2025 at 2:05 PM
On one side, a mercantilist with twitter is keeping rates high by fueling goods inflation, then on the other side a group of 5 or so mgmt teams are keeping rates high by throwing as much money at AI build as they can find.
Both entities basically holding the rest of the economy hostage. Wild
Both entities basically holding the rest of the economy hostage. Wild
Thing I recognized today is that data center capex is running about 1ish % of GDP, and the tariff tax hike is running about 1ish % of GDP.
Winner and loser environment, sure- but weird it kind of offsets on the surface. The latter is a bigger coefficient to u3 tho, I’d assume. We’ll see
Winner and loser environment, sure- but weird it kind of offsets on the surface. The latter is a bigger coefficient to u3 tho, I’d assume. We’ll see
July 28, 2025 at 6:05 PM
Thing I recognized today is that data center capex is running about 1ish % of GDP, and the tariff tax hike is running about 1ish % of GDP.
Winner and loser environment, sure- but weird it kind of offsets on the surface. The latter is a bigger coefficient to u3 tho, I’d assume. We’ll see
Winner and loser environment, sure- but weird it kind of offsets on the surface. The latter is a bigger coefficient to u3 tho, I’d assume. We’ll see
I’m seeing really bad takes this morning. Just bc the mkt or companies haven’t digested consequences yet doesn’t mean everything is cool.
Last wk eu stuff was 10%, this wk it’s 15. That’s *another* incremental tax hike that’s gotta be absorbed.
Last wk eu stuff was 10%, this wk it’s 15. That’s *another* incremental tax hike that’s gotta be absorbed.
July 28, 2025 at 11:54 AM
I’m seeing really bad takes this morning. Just bc the mkt or companies haven’t digested consequences yet doesn’t mean everything is cool.
Last wk eu stuff was 10%, this wk it’s 15. That’s *another* incremental tax hike that’s gotta be absorbed.
Last wk eu stuff was 10%, this wk it’s 15. That’s *another* incremental tax hike that’s gotta be absorbed.
Pretty normal debate that happens when data turns at any time- but for now, is this true data accel H2 or just a pop from the April/May disarray?
We’ll see.
We’ll see.
July 19, 2025 at 7:55 AM
Pretty normal debate that happens when data turns at any time- but for now, is this true data accel H2 or just a pop from the April/May disarray?
We’ll see.
We’ll see.
Everyone finds their stride I assume in *how* you use AI, but for me and my process-
Chat -best at reasoning. Makes up the most stuff, so try to confine it to working on stuff I upload. It’s elite there tho.
Gemini-deep research is insane good. Brevity isn’t its gift in general for normal queries
Chat -best at reasoning. Makes up the most stuff, so try to confine it to working on stuff I upload. It’s elite there tho.
Gemini-deep research is insane good. Brevity isn’t its gift in general for normal queries
July 14, 2025 at 4:59 PM
Everyone finds their stride I assume in *how* you use AI, but for me and my process-
Chat -best at reasoning. Makes up the most stuff, so try to confine it to working on stuff I upload. It’s elite there tho.
Gemini-deep research is insane good. Brevity isn’t its gift in general for normal queries
Chat -best at reasoning. Makes up the most stuff, so try to confine it to working on stuff I upload. It’s elite there tho.
Gemini-deep research is insane good. Brevity isn’t its gift in general for normal queries
Bro you’re telling me consensus 26 est is 300$?? From 263 this year? So 8% growth this yr and 13% next.
No way anyone thinks that’s real come on. Straight fantasy land stuff.
No way anyone thinks that’s real come on. Straight fantasy land stuff.
July 9, 2025 at 5:05 PM
Bro you’re telling me consensus 26 est is 300$?? From 263 this year? So 8% growth this yr and 13% next.
No way anyone thinks that’s real come on. Straight fantasy land stuff.
No way anyone thinks that’s real come on. Straight fantasy land stuff.
Been a bit since a post bc I’m bad at it tbh/
but while everyone likes to post how genius they are, I’ll say this- I’m blown away by how ironclad the mkt believes tariffs will be TACO or just won’t matter. It’s too big of a net drag for me to just say “nah it’s cool”
Just me I guess
but while everyone likes to post how genius they are, I’ll say this- I’m blown away by how ironclad the mkt believes tariffs will be TACO or just won’t matter. It’s too big of a net drag for me to just say “nah it’s cool”
Just me I guess
July 8, 2025 at 2:15 PM
Been a bit since a post bc I’m bad at it tbh/
but while everyone likes to post how genius they are, I’ll say this- I’m blown away by how ironclad the mkt believes tariffs will be TACO or just won’t matter. It’s too big of a net drag for me to just say “nah it’s cool”
Just me I guess
but while everyone likes to post how genius they are, I’ll say this- I’m blown away by how ironclad the mkt believes tariffs will be TACO or just won’t matter. It’s too big of a net drag for me to just say “nah it’s cool”
Just me I guess
So net net, didn’t the Vietnam tariff rate just go up? lol
July 2, 2025 at 3:27 PM
So net net, didn’t the Vietnam tariff rate just go up? lol
@peark.es @conorsen.bsky.social I’ve never seen a keeper as in the zone as freese right now wow
June 30, 2025 at 1:19 AM
@peark.es @conorsen.bsky.social I’ve never seen a keeper as in the zone as freese right now wow
lol the labor mkt is good and everything is fine, oh btw we’re gonna cut 10% of staff.
Brilliant stuff
Brilliant stuff
June 18, 2025 at 7:09 PM
lol the labor mkt is good and everything is fine, oh btw we’re gonna cut 10% of staff.
Brilliant stuff
Brilliant stuff