Challenger Research
@challengerresearch.bsky.social
Geopolitical research firm delivering insights at the intersection of geopolitics, innovation, markets, and security.
Find us on Substack: https://challengerresearch.substack.com/
Find us on Substack: https://challengerresearch.substack.com/
Pinned
Brazil’s Niobium Monopoly
Why Trump's Personal Feud is Strategically Dangerous
challengerresearch.substack.com
When Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on Brazil this summer, the headlines missed a key part of the story – Brazil’s niobium monopoly. This piece unpacks how a diplomatic feud could push Brazil toward China and undermine American strategic interests.
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/brazils-ni...
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/brazils-ni...
When Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on Brazil this summer, the headlines missed a key part of the story – Brazil’s niobium monopoly. This piece unpacks how a diplomatic feud could push Brazil toward China and undermine American strategic interests.
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/brazils-ni...
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/brazils-ni...
Brazil’s Niobium Monopoly
Why Trump's Personal Feud is Strategically Dangerous
challengerresearch.substack.com
November 11, 2025 at 11:28 AM
When Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on Brazil this summer, the headlines missed a key part of the story – Brazil’s niobium monopoly. This piece unpacks how a diplomatic feud could push Brazil toward China and undermine American strategic interests.
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/brazils-ni...
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/brazils-ni...
As we've argued, Europe needs to dispense with the term "grey zone" and use "hybrid warfare" to reflect that it is now the target of a deliberate and coordinated hybrid campaign to destabilise European politics.
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/semantics-...
www.wsj.com/world/europe...
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/semantics-...
www.wsj.com/world/europe...
Europe Is in a Gray Zone Between War and Peace
The continent’s leaders suspect Russia of being behind an intensifying barrage of increasingly disruptive attacks.
www.wsj.com
November 11, 2025 at 9:35 AM
As we've argued, Europe needs to dispense with the term "grey zone" and use "hybrid warfare" to reflect that it is now the target of a deliberate and coordinated hybrid campaign to destabilise European politics.
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/semantics-...
www.wsj.com/world/europe...
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/semantics-...
www.wsj.com/world/europe...
Fresh from IAC 2025 🚀
Check out our report based on firsthand insights from one of our analysts who attended the entire event.
Packed with strategic commentary and takeaways, it will appeal to anyone interested in the evolving global space sector.
www.challengerresearchgroup.com/product-page...
Check out our report based on firsthand insights from one of our analysts who attended the entire event.
Packed with strategic commentary and takeaways, it will appeal to anyone interested in the evolving global space sector.
www.challengerresearchgroup.com/product-page...
IAC 2025 Space Sector Market Report | Challenger Research
🚀 2025 IAC Sydney Market Analysis Report𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐮𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐲 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐆𝐥𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐥 𝐒𝐩𝐚𝐜𝐞 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐦𝐮𝐧𝐢𝐭𝐲’𝐬 𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐦𝐢𝐞𝐫 𝐄𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐭Gain a competitive edge with our exclusive market analysis report from the 2025 Internation...
www.challengerresearchgroup.com
November 7, 2025 at 5:04 PM
Fresh from IAC 2025 🚀
Check out our report based on firsthand insights from one of our analysts who attended the entire event.
Packed with strategic commentary and takeaways, it will appeal to anyone interested in the evolving global space sector.
www.challengerresearchgroup.com/product-page...
Check out our report based on firsthand insights from one of our analysts who attended the entire event.
Packed with strategic commentary and takeaways, it will appeal to anyone interested in the evolving global space sector.
www.challengerresearchgroup.com/product-page...
Great visual by MiningVisuals on the change in Uranium production over time, with Kazakhstan now the global leader with ~43% of world production (as of 2022).
November 3, 2025 at 8:24 PM
Great visual by MiningVisuals on the change in Uranium production over time, with Kazakhstan now the global leader with ~43% of world production (as of 2022).
The UK is producing world-class AI talent, but all too often it get acquired by US companies.
Britain is helping to producing the intellectual fuel for the AI revolution, while others build the engines that run on it.
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/the-talent...
Britain is helping to producing the intellectual fuel for the AI revolution, while others build the engines that run on it.
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/the-talent...
The Talent Pipeline
The UK has the talent, America has the capital, compute, & upside
challengerresearch.substack.com
November 1, 2025 at 12:24 PM
The UK is producing world-class AI talent, but all too often it get acquired by US companies.
Britain is helping to producing the intellectual fuel for the AI revolution, while others build the engines that run on it.
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/the-talent...
Britain is helping to producing the intellectual fuel for the AI revolution, while others build the engines that run on it.
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/the-talent...
On this rare occasion we agree with Bessent. China threatened Japan similarly in 2010 and since then Japan have made strides in reducing the use of Chinese minerals in key areas, like their growing space sector.
www.ft.com/content/399a...
www.ft.com/content/399a...
China ‘made a real mistake’ by ‘firing shots’ on rare earths, says Scott Bessent
US Treasury secretary says US will protect itself from supply shocks in 12-24 months
www.ft.com
October 31, 2025 at 6:16 PM
On this rare occasion we agree with Bessent. China threatened Japan similarly in 2010 and since then Japan have made strides in reducing the use of Chinese minerals in key areas, like their growing space sector.
www.ft.com/content/399a...
www.ft.com/content/399a...
Critical minerals are the cornerstone of power, industry, and strategy in the 21st century.
Our latest strategic review explores how critical minerals & rare earths, essential to most technology, have become oil 2.0 - shaping the modern world.
www.challengerresearchgroup.com/product-page...
Our latest strategic review explores how critical minerals & rare earths, essential to most technology, have become oil 2.0 - shaping the modern world.
www.challengerresearchgroup.com/product-page...
Critical Minerals: Strategic Review | Challenger Research
Critical Minerals Strategic Review: The Scramble for Oil 2.0Published October 2025 | By Challenger Research GroupOverviewCritical Minerals: The Scramble for Oil 2.0 is a comprehensive strategic review...
www.challengerresearchgroup.com
October 29, 2025 at 5:18 PM
Critical minerals are the cornerstone of power, industry, and strategy in the 21st century.
Our latest strategic review explores how critical minerals & rare earths, essential to most technology, have become oil 2.0 - shaping the modern world.
www.challengerresearchgroup.com/product-page...
Our latest strategic review explores how critical minerals & rare earths, essential to most technology, have become oil 2.0 - shaping the modern world.
www.challengerresearchgroup.com/product-page...
In response to unreliability under the Trump administration, European countries are turning to European suppliers.
Sweden and Saab are positioning themselves as one the key European partners. However, Saab will need to ramp up capacity to meet this Gripen order.
www.ft.com/content/9ab0...
Sweden and Saab are positioning themselves as one the key European partners. However, Saab will need to ramp up capacity to meet this Gripen order.
www.ft.com/content/9ab0...
Saab ready to open plant in Ukraine for Gripen fighter jets
Kyiv agrees to buy up to 150 aircraft from the Swedish defence company
www.ft.com
October 27, 2025 at 10:24 AM
In response to unreliability under the Trump administration, European countries are turning to European suppliers.
Sweden and Saab are positioning themselves as one the key European partners. However, Saab will need to ramp up capacity to meet this Gripen order.
www.ft.com/content/9ab0...
Sweden and Saab are positioning themselves as one the key European partners. However, Saab will need to ramp up capacity to meet this Gripen order.
www.ft.com/content/9ab0...
A recent survey found only 16% of Germans would "definitely" defend the country with arms.
If Germany won't defend itself, the logical conclusion is to pay another country to do it - but paradoxically increasing numbers (46%) want to halt aid to Ukraine.
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
If Germany won't defend itself, the logical conclusion is to pay another country to do it - but paradoxically increasing numbers (46%) want to halt aid to Ukraine.
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Who Will Defend Germany If the Germans Won’t?
When an incursion of Russian drones forced Warsaw airport to shut down last month, Poland immediately shot them down. When unidentified drones forced Munich airport to suspend operations this month, G...
www.bloomberg.com
October 15, 2025 at 12:09 PM
A recent survey found only 16% of Germans would "definitely" defend the country with arms.
If Germany won't defend itself, the logical conclusion is to pay another country to do it - but paradoxically increasing numbers (46%) want to halt aid to Ukraine.
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
If Germany won't defend itself, the logical conclusion is to pay another country to do it - but paradoxically increasing numbers (46%) want to halt aid to Ukraine.
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Ukraine faces a perilous dance: gaining US support without risking sovereignty, while preparing for an inevitable post-war relationship with Moscow, whatever the outcome of the invasion.
Mexico offers a template on how to deal with powerful nations.
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/what-ukrai...
Mexico offers a template on how to deal with powerful nations.
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/what-ukrai...
What Ukraine Can Learn from Mexico’s Dance with Washington
The Choreography of Coexistence
challengerresearch.substack.com
October 14, 2025 at 12:51 PM
Ukraine faces a perilous dance: gaining US support without risking sovereignty, while preparing for an inevitable post-war relationship with Moscow, whatever the outcome of the invasion.
Mexico offers a template on how to deal with powerful nations.
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/what-ukrai...
Mexico offers a template on how to deal with powerful nations.
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/what-ukrai...
A drone wall won’t stop a drone launched from within Europe - especially when law enforcement in many countries still lacks the legal powers and resources to intercept them.
Europe needs harmonised counter-drone laws as well as radars and interceptors.
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/drones-thr...
Europe needs harmonised counter-drone laws as well as radars and interceptors.
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/drones-thr...
Drone Threats Aren’t Just at the Eastern Border
But from Within Europe Too
challengerresearch.substack.com
October 9, 2025 at 12:27 PM
A drone wall won’t stop a drone launched from within Europe - especially when law enforcement in many countries still lacks the legal powers and resources to intercept them.
Europe needs harmonised counter-drone laws as well as radars and interceptors.
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/drones-thr...
Europe needs harmonised counter-drone laws as well as radars and interceptors.
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/drones-thr...
🌍 As the Arctic thaws, it’s becoming a geostrategic hotspot, rich in rare earths & new sea routes (NSR).
Already a theatre of Russia's hybrid war: sabotage, GPS jamming & low-intensity military moves.
Crucially NATO doesn't have a High North strategy.
www.chathamhouse.org/2025/10/when...
Already a theatre of Russia's hybrid war: sabotage, GPS jamming & low-intensity military moves.
Crucially NATO doesn't have a High North strategy.
www.chathamhouse.org/2025/10/when...
When it comes to Arctic security, Europe must not forget about the economics
European Arctic strategies have tended to downplay the links between security and economic interests. In an increasingly tense geopolitical environment, this connection is key.
www.chathamhouse.org
October 7, 2025 at 3:25 PM
🌍 As the Arctic thaws, it’s becoming a geostrategic hotspot, rich in rare earths & new sea routes (NSR).
Already a theatre of Russia's hybrid war: sabotage, GPS jamming & low-intensity military moves.
Crucially NATO doesn't have a High North strategy.
www.chathamhouse.org/2025/10/when...
Already a theatre of Russia's hybrid war: sabotage, GPS jamming & low-intensity military moves.
Crucially NATO doesn't have a High North strategy.
www.chathamhouse.org/2025/10/when...
VC in European defence startups surged from $159m (2014) to $5.2bn (2024) ~42% CAGR driven by geopolitics & shifting ESG views.
But, US VC firms provide most late stage funding (63%) to European firms, capturing much of the upside from this investment.
www.cnbc.com/video/2025/1...
But, US VC firms provide most late stage funding (63%) to European firms, capturing much of the upside from this investment.
www.cnbc.com/video/2025/1...
Why private investors are pouring billions into Europe's defense tech sector
Venture capital investment in European deep tech defense, security and resilience startups has grown from $159 million in 2014 to $5.2 billion in 2024 – a 32-fold increase in just a decade, according ...
www.cnbc.com
October 6, 2025 at 10:09 AM
VC in European defence startups surged from $159m (2014) to $5.2bn (2024) ~42% CAGR driven by geopolitics & shifting ESG views.
But, US VC firms provide most late stage funding (63%) to European firms, capturing much of the upside from this investment.
www.cnbc.com/video/2025/1...
But, US VC firms provide most late stage funding (63%) to European firms, capturing much of the upside from this investment.
www.cnbc.com/video/2025/1...
Space is increasingly a strategic military domain, including the satellites in orbit, as well as the launch infrastructure.
Find out more in our strategic review on The Space Launch Sector here: www.challengerresearchgroup.com/product-page...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Find out more in our strategic review on The Space Launch Sector here: www.challengerresearchgroup.com/product-page...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Russia targets UK military satellites on weekly basis
Moscow is attempting to collect information from UK spacecraft, according to the MoD.
www.bbc.co.uk
October 3, 2025 at 8:04 AM
Space is increasingly a strategic military domain, including the satellites in orbit, as well as the launch infrastructure.
Find out more in our strategic review on The Space Launch Sector here: www.challengerresearchgroup.com/product-page...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Find out more in our strategic review on The Space Launch Sector here: www.challengerresearchgroup.com/product-page...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
As we noted in our recent Substack piece: Baltic geography limits drone warfare seen in Ukraine.
Critical sites need protection from drones, but the landscape limits approach to just a few clear routes that can be covered by standard defences.
www.cnbc.com/2025/10/02/d...
Critical sites need protection from drones, but the landscape limits approach to just a few clear routes that can be covered by standard defences.
www.cnbc.com/2025/10/02/d...
‘We stand ready’: Defense giants welcome Europe’s push to build a drone wall to repel Russia
A series of airspace violations allegedly involving Russian jets or drones have been reported in recent weeks.
www.cnbc.com
October 2, 2025 at 11:50 AM
As we noted in our recent Substack piece: Baltic geography limits drone warfare seen in Ukraine.
Critical sites need protection from drones, but the landscape limits approach to just a few clear routes that can be covered by standard defences.
www.cnbc.com/2025/10/02/d...
Critical sites need protection from drones, but the landscape limits approach to just a few clear routes that can be covered by standard defences.
www.cnbc.com/2025/10/02/d...
Given how the Trump admin has treated Greenland, they were never going to pick Starlink.
Eutelsat, as Europe's no.1 and world's no.2 provider, is best placed to provide services to countries and firms wary of relying on US providers.
www.satellitetoday.com/connectivity...
Eutelsat, as Europe's no.1 and world's no.2 provider, is best placed to provide services to countries and firms wary of relying on US providers.
www.satellitetoday.com/connectivity...
Greenland’s Top Telco Taps Eutelsat for LEO Connectivity
Greenland's top telco Tusass will leverage Eutelsat’s OneWeb LEO network to address a wide range of connectivity needs.
www.satellitetoday.com
October 2, 2025 at 9:49 AM
Given how the Trump admin has treated Greenland, they were never going to pick Starlink.
Eutelsat, as Europe's no.1 and world's no.2 provider, is best placed to provide services to countries and firms wary of relying on US providers.
www.satellitetoday.com/connectivity...
Eutelsat, as Europe's no.1 and world's no.2 provider, is best placed to provide services to countries and firms wary of relying on US providers.
www.satellitetoday.com/connectivity...
The Eastern flank drone wall misses on several key issues:
+ expensive & diverts resources away from the most effective deterrent, traditional long-range strike capabilities
+ hybrid war is seeing drones in urban centres
www.cnbc.com/2025/10/01/w...
+ expensive & diverts resources away from the most effective deterrent, traditional long-range strike capabilities
+ hybrid war is seeing drones in urban centres
www.cnbc.com/2025/10/01/w...
What is the drone wall that Europe wants to deter Russia?
A number of European countries have reported airspace incursions involving either Russian jets or, allegedly, drones recently.
www.cnbc.com
October 1, 2025 at 12:11 PM
The Eastern flank drone wall misses on several key issues:
+ expensive & diverts resources away from the most effective deterrent, traditional long-range strike capabilities
+ hybrid war is seeing drones in urban centres
www.cnbc.com/2025/10/01/w...
+ expensive & diverts resources away from the most effective deterrent, traditional long-range strike capabilities
+ hybrid war is seeing drones in urban centres
www.cnbc.com/2025/10/01/w...
Ukrainian defence firm Fire Point claim they can ramp up production of the FP-5 Flamingo missile to 200 per month.
This could prove untenable for Russia's energy industry (>25% oil refining already disabled) - elites that Putin relies upon.
This could prove untenable for Russia's energy industry (>25% oil refining already disabled) - elites that Putin relies upon.
October 1, 2025 at 10:47 AM
Ukrainian defence firm Fire Point claim they can ramp up production of the FP-5 Flamingo missile to 200 per month.
This could prove untenable for Russia's energy industry (>25% oil refining already disabled) - elites that Putin relies upon.
This could prove untenable for Russia's energy industry (>25% oil refining already disabled) - elites that Putin relies upon.
Drones matter - but they won't decide the next war. Submarines, long-range strike, and advanced aircraft still shape deterrence.
Mistaking necessity for strategy in the Ukraine-Russia War could prove disastrous.
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/the-drone-...
Mistaking necessity for strategy in the Ukraine-Russia War could prove disastrous.
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/the-drone-...
The Drone Frenzy: Why Preparing for This War Could Cost us the Next
Scarcity, Countermeasures, Geography & China
challengerresearch.substack.com
September 30, 2025 at 12:45 PM
Drones matter - but they won't decide the next war. Submarines, long-range strike, and advanced aircraft still shape deterrence.
Mistaking necessity for strategy in the Ukraine-Russia War could prove disastrous.
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/the-drone-...
Mistaking necessity for strategy in the Ukraine-Russia War could prove disastrous.
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/the-drone-...
LEO satellites are crucial to modern warfare, and so for Europe to secure strategic autonomy it must remove its dependence on Starlink.
Eutelsat represents Europe's best chance at achieving this, and European governments should be rallying to support it.
www.reuters.com/science/eute...
Eutelsat represents Europe's best chance at achieving this, and European governments should be rallying to support it.
www.reuters.com/science/eute...
Eutelsat needs to close funding gap to gain ground on Starlink
Satellite operator Eutelsat must secure investment from more European countries to bolster its efforts to challenge billionaire Elon Musk's Starlink, EU lawmakers and analysts say following a commitment by France.
www.reuters.com
September 30, 2025 at 9:27 AM
LEO satellites are crucial to modern warfare, and so for Europe to secure strategic autonomy it must remove its dependence on Starlink.
Eutelsat represents Europe's best chance at achieving this, and European governments should be rallying to support it.
www.reuters.com/science/eute...
Eutelsat represents Europe's best chance at achieving this, and European governments should be rallying to support it.
www.reuters.com/science/eute...
Moldova stands with the West.
Turnout hit 52%, higher than recent years.
Older voters still lean on Soviet nostalgia for a dysfunctional empire - but Moldova's younger generation is saying never again.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Turnout hit 52%, higher than recent years.
Older voters still lean on Soviet nostalgia for a dysfunctional empire - but Moldova's younger generation is saying never again.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Moldova's pro-EU party wins vote mired in claims of Russian interference
The election was seen as critical for Moldova's EU path, and President Maia Sandu warned the country's future was in danger.
www.bbc.co.uk
September 29, 2025 at 7:33 PM
Moldova stands with the West.
Turnout hit 52%, higher than recent years.
Older voters still lean on Soviet nostalgia for a dysfunctional empire - but Moldova's younger generation is saying never again.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Turnout hit 52%, higher than recent years.
Older voters still lean on Soviet nostalgia for a dysfunctional empire - but Moldova's younger generation is saying never again.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
When Europe designs projects to satisfy national quotas, we trade unity for disunity and inefficiency, with everyone losing.
True European unity must involve some sacrifice at the national level.
spacenews.com/italys-cross...
True European unity must involve some sacrifice at the national level.
spacenews.com/italys-cross...
Italy’s crossroads: build its own satellites or lean on Starlink while waiting for IRIS²
Italy’s crossroads: build its own satellites or lean on Starlink while waiting for IRIS²
spacenews.com
September 29, 2025 at 10:33 AM
When Europe designs projects to satisfy national quotas, we trade unity for disunity and inefficiency, with everyone losing.
True European unity must involve some sacrifice at the national level.
spacenews.com/italys-cross...
True European unity must involve some sacrifice at the national level.
spacenews.com/italys-cross...
Russia doesn't need tanks to wage war in Europe - they have your social media feeds.
In this piece, we explore how Moscow has weaponised social media, why it's so effective, and what Europe must do to fight back.
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/weaponisin...
In this piece, we explore how Moscow has weaponised social media, why it's so effective, and what Europe must do to fight back.
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/weaponisin...
Weaponising your Feed
Russia’s Digital Assault on European Democracies
challengerresearch.substack.com
September 25, 2025 at 5:11 PM
Russia doesn't need tanks to wage war in Europe - they have your social media feeds.
In this piece, we explore how Moscow has weaponised social media, why it's so effective, and what Europe must do to fight back.
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/weaponisin...
In this piece, we explore how Moscow has weaponised social media, why it's so effective, and what Europe must do to fight back.
challengerresearch.substack.com/p/weaponisin...