Chad Skelton
@chadskelton.bsky.social
Instructor at Kwantlen Polytechnic University in Vancouver, Canada. Data journalist. Nerd for hire: charts, maps, Tableau training. Past: Vancouver Sun he/him cskeltondata@gmail.com http://www.chadskelton.com/
I'm calling it a night but I see (at least) two possible scenarios in the final count:
1. The closest races are mainly ones where the Libs are leading. That means their seat count is more vulnerable.
2. If they count advance polls last and those tilt left, Libs could strengthen their position.
1. The closest races are mainly ones where the Libs are leading. That means their seat count is more vulnerable.
2. If they count advance polls last and those tilt left, Libs could strengthen their position.
April 29, 2025 at 6:07 AM
I'm calling it a night but I see (at least) two possible scenarios in the final count:
1. The closest races are mainly ones where the Libs are leading. That means their seat count is more vulnerable.
2. If they count advance polls last and those tilt left, Libs could strengthen their position.
1. The closest races are mainly ones where the Libs are leading. That means their seat count is more vulnerable.
2. If they count advance polls last and those tilt left, Libs could strengthen their position.
@kevinmilligan.bsky.social has a nice spreadsheet of the closest races, and it shows how some of the tightest ones are Lib-Con where the Libs are leading. That's a fragile place to be. docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
April 29, 2025 at 5:49 AM
@kevinmilligan.bsky.social has a nice spreadsheet of the closest races, and it shows how some of the tightest ones are Lib-Con where the Libs are leading. That's a fragile place to be. docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
In fairness, Liberals still have a few shots at turning a few blue seats red.
April 29, 2025 at 5:37 AM
In fairness, Liberals still have a few shots at turning a few blue seats red.
And a couple of other razor-thin Liberal margins in Metro Vancouver with a few polls left to count.
April 29, 2025 at 5:34 AM
And a couple of other razor-thin Liberal margins in Metro Vancouver with a few polls left to count.
Wouldn't take much for the Liberals to lose their (razor thin) lead in Kelowna. Though only a handful of polls left to report.
April 29, 2025 at 5:33 AM
Wouldn't take much for the Liberals to lose their (razor thin) lead in Kelowna. Though only a handful of polls left to report.
Lib (165) + NDP (7) has a razor thin 172-seat majority at the moment. I'd guess there's a good chance that won't hold. Significantly more of the Liberal seat count is 'leading' rather than elected compared to Conservatives. A decent risk Liberal count will go down before the night is over.
April 29, 2025 at 5:31 AM
Lib (165) + NDP (7) has a razor thin 172-seat majority at the moment. I'd guess there's a good chance that won't hold. Significantly more of the Liberal seat count is 'leading' rather than elected compared to Conservatives. A decent risk Liberal count will go down before the night is over.
And just 7 minutes later, Conservative Ellis Ross has a strong lead. Early votes and late-counted votes must have come from very different areas.
April 29, 2025 at 5:16 AM
And just 7 minutes later, Conservative Ellis Ross has a strong lead. Early votes and late-counted votes must have come from very different areas.
Overall, Liberals did worse than expected based on the polls. But this post of mine from earlier today on my own riding aged pretty well. 😀
April 29, 2025 at 5:09 AM
Overall, Liberals did worse than expected based on the polls. But this post of mine from earlier today on my own riding aged pretty well. 😀
CBC site now saying Liberal Ernie Klassen is elected in South Surrey-White Rock. A flip from Conservative to Liberal.
April 29, 2025 at 5:07 AM
CBC site now saying Liberal Ernie Klassen is elected in South Surrey-White Rock. A flip from Conservative to Liberal.
Been keeping an eye on Skeena-Bulkley Valley (BC). Amazing how much the NDP's margin of victory has narrowed from earlier in the night. Shows how poorly early results can predict final count.
April 29, 2025 at 5:06 AM
Been keeping an eye on Skeena-Bulkley Valley (BC). Amazing how much the NDP's margin of victory has narrowed from earlier in the night. Shows how poorly early results can predict final count.
Man, Kelowna really is a little red island in a sea of blue in the B.C. Interior.
April 29, 2025 at 4:09 AM
Man, Kelowna really is a little red island in a sea of blue in the B.C. Interior.
Pierre Polievre being behind in his own riding of Carleton seemed like a fluke with only a few polls reporting. But we're now at 50/266 polls and he's still in second. And the margin ain't all that close. Still hard to see him losing but this seems closer than people were expecting.
April 29, 2025 at 4:03 AM
Pierre Polievre being behind in his own riding of Carleton seemed like a fluke with only a few polls reporting. But we're now at 50/266 polls and he's still in second. And the margin ain't all that close. Still hard to see him losing but this seems closer than people were expecting.
And... Ernie's back in the lead.
April 29, 2025 at 3:59 AM
And... Ernie's back in the lead.
Liberal Ernie Klassen has been consistently ahead in South Surrey-White Rock since counting began. But Conservative Kerry-Lynne Findlay just took the lead.
April 29, 2025 at 3:57 AM
Liberal Ernie Klassen has been consistently ahead in South Surrey-White Rock since counting began. But Conservative Kerry-Lynne Findlay just took the lead.
Interesting: Conservatives have pulled ahead in Fleetwood-Port Kells in Surrey, B.C. Liberal MP Ken Hardie, who stepped down, won the last three elections. In 2021 by a pretty big margin of 45%-30% (46%-28% redistributed) 70/187 polls reporting.
April 29, 2025 at 3:51 AM
Interesting: Conservatives have pulled ahead in Fleetwood-Port Kells in Surrey, B.C. Liberal MP Ken Hardie, who stepped down, won the last three elections. In 2021 by a pretty big margin of 45%-30% (46%-28% redistributed) 70/187 polls reporting.
Globe and Mail election results site is more reliable than the CBC's for sure. But it's map projection is driving me kind of bonkers. Not used to seeing Metro Vancouver on an angle like this. CBC's map 'feels' more right to me.
April 29, 2025 at 3:47 AM
Globe and Mail election results site is more reliable than the CBC's for sure. But it's map projection is driving me kind of bonkers. Not used to seeing Metro Vancouver on an angle like this. CBC's map 'feels' more right to me.
Jagmeet Singh in 3rd place in his riding at the moment. Only 15/200 reporting.
April 29, 2025 at 3:32 AM
Jagmeet Singh in 3rd place in his riding at the moment. Only 15/200 reporting.
CBC election results page seems to be sputtering a bit, at least for me. Says it's updating but... it's not. Stuck at 9,142 polls reporting for the past 10 minutes and not showing some results they're showing on screen. Globe and Mail site more updated. www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/fed...
April 29, 2025 at 2:38 AM
CBC election results page seems to be sputtering a bit, at least for me. Says it's updating but... it's not. Stuck at 9,142 polls reporting for the past 10 minutes and not showing some results they're showing on screen. Globe and Mail site more updated. www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/fed...
Probably no easy way around this. But showing a running popular vote total throughout election night (which CBC keeps showing) seems misleading in a country that basically becomes more Conservative the further West you get and counts its results East to West. No way Libs get 50%+ of the final vote
April 29, 2025 at 2:20 AM
Probably no easy way around this. But showing a running popular vote total throughout election night (which CBC keeps showing) seems misleading in a country that basically becomes more Conservative the further West you get and counts its results East to West. No way Libs get 50%+ of the final vote
It's always kind of fun when there are ~100 votes counted in a riding. The numbers and percentages are the same!
April 29, 2025 at 2:10 AM
It's always kind of fun when there are ~100 votes counted in a riding. The numbers and percentages are the same!
I really like the NYT's cartogram of Canadian election results, especially how they've highlighted Vancouver/Toronto/Montreal. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
April 29, 2025 at 2:02 AM
I really like the NYT's cartogram of Canadian election results, especially how they've highlighted Vancouver/Toronto/Montreal. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
I know it makes it easier to read. But CBC’s bar-chart-but-not-quite-a-bar-chart drives me bananas.
April 29, 2025 at 1:53 AM
I know it makes it easier to read. But CBC’s bar-chart-but-not-quite-a-bar-chart drives me bananas.
And in Kenora, the NDP has already dropped to third. 🤣
April 29, 2025 at 1:47 AM
And in Kenora, the NDP has already dropped to third. 🤣
TV screens now showing NDP leading in two ridings. The other one is Leduc—Wetaskiwin (AB), another one it's really, really hard to imagine the NDP actually wins.
April 29, 2025 at 1:46 AM
TV screens now showing NDP leading in two ridings. The other one is Leduc—Wetaskiwin (AB), another one it's really, really hard to imagine the NDP actually wins.
And the one NDP leading on the TV screens right now is Kenora—Kiiwetinoong (ON) which the NDP has never won and which the Conservatives are projected to have a 99% chance of winning, with the NDP in a distant third.
April 29, 2025 at 1:43 AM
And the one NDP leading on the TV screens right now is Kenora—Kiiwetinoong (ON) which the NDP has never won and which the Conservatives are projected to have a 99% chance of winning, with the NDP in a distant third.