CEPREMAP
LightNews LightNews
banner
cepremap.bsky.social
CEPREMAP
@cepremap.bsky.social
240 followers 64 following 47 posts
Centre pour la Recherche Économique et ses applications. Assurer une interface entre le monde académique et les administrations économiques.
Posts Replies Media Videos
cepremap.bsky.social
Growth is stronger in France than in the rest of the Euro Area, particularly relative to Germany, while inflation is running at roughly half the rate.

The latest Macroeconomic Outlook is online 👉 www.cepremap.fr/depot/2025/1...
November 12, 2025 at 3:35 PM
cepremap.bsky.social
Since the dissolution of the Parliament in 2024, the yield spread on French public debt relative to Germany has risen by 0.3 pp while it has narrowed by 0.4 pp for Italy and by 0.3 pp for Greece and Spain.

The latest Macroeconomic Outlook is online 👉 www.cepremap.fr/depot/2025/1...
October 20, 2025 at 10:17 AM
cepremap.bsky.social
Good news: after dropping below 2% in May, inflation has risen to 2.2% in the Euro Area (from 0.6% and 2.1% in May in France and Germany to 1.1% and 2.4% in September), the risk of recession is receding.

The latest Macroeconomic Outlook is online 👉 www.cepremap.fr/depot/2025/1...
October 3, 2025 at 4:00 PM
cepremap.bsky.social
OECD growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 were revised upward by 0.2 percentage points for most countries, but not for France, where the forecast is unchanged and remains below previous growth rates.

The latest Macroeconomic Outlook is online 👉 www.cepremap.fr/depot/2025/0...
September 29, 2025 at 3:00 PM
cepremap.bsky.social
French government bond yields have risen above those of Spain and Greece.

The latest Macroeconomic Outlook is online 👉 www.cepremap.fr/depot/2025/0...
September 19, 2025 at 7:43 AM
cepremap.bsky.social
With a GDP deflator at 1.8% and a real growth at 0.6%, nominal growth should be at 2.4% in 2025 in France. It is below the rate on new borrowing (the 10-year bond yield is at 3.2%), increasing the risk of a debt explosion.

The new Macroeconomic Outlook is online 👉 www.cepremap.fr/depot/2025/0...
September 5, 2025 at 3:56 PM
cepremap.bsky.social
At the end of June, unemployment rates in the USA and the Eurozone (particularly in Germany and France) remained moderate: let's hope they will remain so despite political uncertainties.

The latest Macroeconomic Outlook is online 👉 www.cepremap.fr/depot/2025/0...
September 2, 2025 at 2:41 PM
cepremap.bsky.social
After a difficult final quarter of 2024 marked by the no-confidence vote against the Barnier government, France is catching up with EU growth, posting stronger growth in the second quarter of 2025.

The latest Macroeconomic Outlook is online 👉 www.cepremap.fr/depot/2025/0...
August 1, 2025 at 4:16 PM
cepremap.bsky.social
Inflation in France remains unusually low—about half the level seen in other countries—and even just half of France’s own core inflation, as falling commodity prices are dragging headline inflation down.

The latest Macroeconomic Outlook is online 👉 www.cepremap.fr/depot/2025/0...
July 21, 2025 at 8:07 AM
cepremap.bsky.social
5️⃣ La nature des économies compte :
❌ Réduire uniquement la consommation publique nuit à la croissance
❌ Réduire uniquement les transferts augmente les inégalités
July 4, 2025 at 3:03 PM
cepremap.bsky.social
4️⃣ Une règle budgétaire légale, corrigeant les écarts à la trajectoire cible, serait plus efficace du fait de l’anticipation favorable des agents:
✅ Dette plus faible (baisse de 1,2 point)
✅ Plus de croissance (gain de 0,13 point)
✅ Moins de risques de dérapage
July 4, 2025 at 3:03 PM
cepremap.bsky.social
2️⃣ Ce plan permettrait de :
✅ Réduire la dette de 10,1 points
❌ Au prix d’une perte annuelle de 0,16 pt de croissance
❌ Et d’une hausse des inégalités
July 4, 2025 at 3:03 PM
cepremap.bsky.social
📘 Ce nouvel e-book propose des analyses rigoureuses et accessibles sur les grands choix économiques à venir.
À lire ici 👉 i-mip.eu/wp-content/u...
Et à partager si ces sujets vous intéressent !
July 4, 2025 at 1:31 PM
cepremap.bsky.social
As has been the case for over a year, France's debt continues to rise, unlike what has been observed this past quarter in the UK and the United States.

The latest Macroeconomic Outlook is online 👉 www.cepremap.fr/depot/2025/0...
June 27, 2025 at 3:32 PM
cepremap.bsky.social
The OECD’s growth forecasts for 2025 have been revised downward: -0.6 percentage points for the US and -0.2 points for France compared to March forescasts… bad news for public finances.

The latest Macroeconomic Outlook is online 👉 www.cepremap.fr/depot/2025/0...
June 12, 2025 at 1:51 PM
cepremap.bsky.social
Inflation decreased, especially in France (0.9%). The dollar continues to depreciate, having fallen from 1.04 to 1.15 EUR in a month. This economic environment led the ECB to cut again its rate by 25 bp.

The latest Macroeconomic Outlook is online 👉 www.cepremap.fr/depot/2025/0...
April 25, 2025 at 9:25 AM
cepremap.bsky.social
In 2024, French public debt increased by 3 percentage points (from 110% to 113% of GDP), while the deficit rose by only 0.1 pp (from 5.7% to 5.8%): a difficult economic environment is driving up the debt.

The latest Macroeconomic Outlook is online 👉 www.cepremap.fr/depot/2025/0...
April 7, 2025 at 11:45 AM
cepremap.bsky.social
With price inflation at 1.7% and wage inflation at 2.9%, French purchasing power grew in the fourth quarter of 2024.

The latest Macroeconomic Outlook is online 👉 www.cepremap.fr/depot/2025/0...
March 28, 2025 at 9:17 AM
cepremap.bsky.social
Inflation remains high (2.8% in the US and Germany), and financial indicators are dropping (-10 points for the Nasdaq since January): transatlantic policies do not seem business-friendly!!!

The latest Macroeconomic Outlook is online 👉 www.cepremap.fr/depot/2025/0...
March 14, 2025 at 8:42 AM
cepremap.bsky.social
The ECB decided to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in response to high uncertainty, which depresses demand and delays projects (GDP forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have declined).

The latest Macroeconomic Outlook is online 👉 www.cepremap.fr/depot/2025/0...
March 7, 2025 at 8:09 AM
cepremap.bsky.social
Traditionally perceived as safer in the US than in Europe, investments in companies are now considered more secure in Europe... The White House announcements do not seem to be interpreted as pro-business!

The latest Macroeconomic Outlook is online 👉 www.cepremap.fr/depot/2025/0...
March 3, 2025 at 9:17 AM
cepremap.bsky.social
While American stock markets (S&P 500 and Nasdaq) have been stagnating since early January 2025, the main European index (Eurostoxx 50) is growing at a fast pace. Do markets have more confidence in Europe?

The latest Macroeconomic Outlook is online 👉 www.cepremap.fr/depot/2025/0...
February 21, 2025 at 3:09 PM
cepremap.bsky.social
Inflation remains stable and very low in France (at 1.8%), while it is slightly increasing in the USA (rising from 2.9% to 3%) and in Euro Area (rising from 2.4% to 2.5%).

The latest Macroeconomic Outlook is online 👉 www.cepremap.fr/depot/2025/0...
February 14, 2025 at 2:53 PM
cepremap.bsky.social
Economic growth difference between the US and the Euro Area increased in the fourth quarter of 2024 as growth was negative in France and Germany.

The latest Macroeconomic Outlook is online 👉 www.cepremap.fr/depot/2025/0...
February 7, 2025 at 10:21 AM
cepremap.bsky.social
Par exemple, une hausse des cotisations sociales, prévue pour rapporter 5,3 Md€ en 2025, s’accompagnerait de 3,58 Md€ perdus au titre de l’impôt sur revenu, du fait des effets négatifs qu’ont les cotisations sociales sur l’emploi et donc les revenus.
December 2, 2024 at 8:14 AM