Successful coups by political figures aren’t generally spontaneous, but the culmination of a political movement, and a sense of overwhelming crisis.

If citizens within a state don’t strongly perceive an acute attack against their ways of life, or institutions they economically rely upon they are likely to perceive the coup as that threat. For an anti-democratic coup to succeed, there needs to be an intense justification to invoke the sovereign.

Like Israel, it will engage in a long Cold War with its larger neighbor. Displacing Russian weapon sales, fighting Wagner in Africa. I expect that after the war, Ukraine will be aggressively accelerate the dissolution of Russia’s power block. Lack Russian weapon sales will be the greatest threat.

I don’t believe that this is just the information war, or an attempt to make the Russians look weak. I believe it points to a more international perspective of the Ukrainians, and how they will continue the war, after a settlement. Because they won’t be able to enter NATO, Ukraine won’t be passive

Tbh it’s not clear if this is true — Assad had gone to Moscow last week, returning to Syria after his absence was noted. It’s quite likely that a partial evacuation of the embassy has begun. What’s notable is that this is being pushed by UKR news.

#China plays a similar game. Attacks on Philippine fishermen, colonies in Bhutan, Himalayan skirmishes, South China Sea. Korean War, etc. a long war in Taiwan may trigger massive opportunism amongst its neighbors seeking to resolve things on their own terms. #geopolitics #war #news #military

Iranian power was never stronger than 10/6, and has totally collapsed into a complete economic, social and political crisis. When the crisis plays out, they will be left with a shadow of their power, and the men and material expended. Their many enemies will be lionized.

If one conflict goes hot, the victim states are likely to force resolution at the same time. Critically, this doesn’t require coordination, but opportunism. This leads to massive system collapse as the cost of fighting all these hot wars are far too high.

Frozen conflicts encourage networks of adversaries as each conflict is maintained at a low cost rather than finding a mutually disagreeable resolution, instigators ensure a permanent crisis in their victim states. Individually the costs of maintaining the wars are low, but have high downside risk.

Piggly wiggly till I die