That's pretty standard downballot lag: a rightward swing still happened, it just took longer to migrate down to the congressional and state legislative levels.

Biss is a former math professor, so instant critical support to him over any of the other primary challengers.

More people than wanted Gavin Newsom's!

I feel like people forget how legendarily bad Bowman's primary campaign was. Focusing solely on the part of the district where most of his constituents don't live against the guy who showed up to every event in the part of the district where everyone lives.

I think your answer is popular... just not on this site.

Well, as long as that's your opinion after you *read* it.

I think it had a decent role - not from the electorate, but from the Biden loyalist camp. His White House team was really caustic towards her on a lot of shaky grounds and threw her under the bus, giving her few chances to do anything, to prop up Biden as "the only electable" candidate.

Nope! That's because the primary electorate is consistently and significantly more partisan and extreme than the general electorate. That's WHY the leftist and fascist wings of the parties that the article analyzes exist!

I'm beginning to see what you mean about BlueSky being about as rabidly insane as Twitter but with fewer racists. What the fuck are people on here smoking this is analysis I thought we all collectively performed years ago

Additionally, if you read the fucking article, you'll see that there is little electoral outcome difference between where Kamala was in 2020 (progressive but not a Sanders acolyte) and where she shifted to in 2024 (New Dems corpodem). The thesis you claim he has is not supported by evidence.

Trump barely fell short of 50%. Had the GOP run someone who didn't claim on a national debate stage that immigrants were eating pets, they would have easily reached 50%. Nikki Haley would have blown Harris out of the water because she was less extreme than Trump and voters saw her as such.

Well, Fitzpatrick won by 13 points in a district that Harris won, so it looks like the voters disagree with you on that one. The burden is on us to show the public that they're not moderates.

He's no true moderate but he's as close as you're going to get with the modern GOP. It's unfortunate that we've gotten to the point where he's considered a moderate, but other Republicans would be hard-pressed to win his district.

Don Bacon and Brian Fitzpatrick would like to have a word.

Tlaib's district is plurality Black and has a sizable Arab-American population, Omar's district barely cracks 20% Black and has an Arab-American community with significantly less sway. That's the key difference to why Tlaib suddenly overperformed in 2024 but Omar didn't.

I also block extremely liberally but just gave up today and deactivated on Twitter. Even if you give up interacting with people here I hope you keep mirroring at least some of your posts because you're one of the better analysts left.

There's a chance of Elon and Trump both dropping dead from cerebral hemorrhages within a minute of each other. That chance is substantially higher than the chance of Gaetz's seat flipping.