Cedric Chin
@cedricchin.bsky.social
Publishes http://commoncog.com. Tweets about books & the art of business, from the perspective of an operator. Also: https://warpcast.com/cedric
Presented without comment.
November 10, 2025 at 12:40 AM
Presented without comment.
This seems to have spread through word of mouth, so I think I should give this a boost.
Over the past 3 years or so, I've seen a number of "what to do about AI posts". Most of them are bad, because they are built around a flawed idea: that you have to predict the future to act.
Over the past 3 years or so, I've seen a number of "what to do about AI posts". Most of them are bad, because they are built around a flawed idea: that you have to predict the future to act.
October 27, 2025 at 2:04 AM
This seems to have spread through word of mouth, so I think I should give this a boost.
Over the past 3 years or so, I've seen a number of "what to do about AI posts". Most of them are bad, because they are built around a flawed idea: that you have to predict the future to act.
Over the past 3 years or so, I've seen a number of "what to do about AI posts". Most of them are bad, because they are built around a flawed idea: that you have to predict the future to act.
"If I were stranded on a desert island and could only receive updates from five websites, Commoncog would be one of them. It's that good."
☺️
☺️
October 9, 2025 at 9:57 AM
"If I were stranded on a desert island and could only receive updates from five websites, Commoncog would be one of them. It's that good."
☺️
☺️
The big takeaway from Engines is the following two actionable takeaways:
October 7, 2025 at 2:57 AM
The big takeaway from Engines is the following two actionable takeaways:
The second is a summary of Carlota Perez's framework around technological revolutions.
But mostly as a way to understand @ganeumann's Colossus essay "AI Will Not Make You Rich". I tie this to Jerry Neumann's approach to venture investing, as a way to understand his worldview.
But mostly as a way to understand @ganeumann's Colossus essay "AI Will Not Make You Rich". I tie this to Jerry Neumann's approach to venture investing, as a way to understand his worldview.
October 7, 2025 at 2:57 AM
The second is a summary of Carlota Perez's framework around technological revolutions.
But mostly as a way to understand @ganeumann's Colossus essay "AI Will Not Make You Rich". I tie this to Jerry Neumann's approach to venture investing, as a way to understand his worldview.
But mostly as a way to understand @ganeumann's Colossus essay "AI Will Not Make You Rich". I tie this to Jerry Neumann's approach to venture investing, as a way to understand his worldview.
PSA: I've published two summaries on navigating tech bubbles in the Commoncog members forum.
The first is a summary of Engines That Move Markets, which examines every tech bubble since the canals.
The resulting framework helps you navigate the current bubble.
The first is a summary of Engines That Move Markets, which examines every tech bubble since the canals.
The resulting framework helps you navigate the current bubble.
October 7, 2025 at 2:57 AM
PSA: I've published two summaries on navigating tech bubbles in the Commoncog members forum.
The first is a summary of Engines That Move Markets, which examines every tech bubble since the canals.
The resulting framework helps you navigate the current bubble.
The first is a summary of Engines That Move Markets, which examines every tech bubble since the canals.
The resulting framework helps you navigate the current bubble.
Are there areas in which you can outsource subjective value judgments? Yes!
The full piece has more detail, but @daisychristo and her team at No More Marking created a system that outsourced essay grading decisions to an AI ... so teachers could give better feedback!
The full piece has more detail, but @daisychristo and her team at No More Marking created a system that outsourced essay grading decisions to an AI ... so teachers could give better feedback!
September 17, 2025 at 4:02 AM
Are there areas in which you can outsource subjective value judgments? Yes!
The full piece has more detail, but @daisychristo and her team at No More Marking created a system that outsourced essay grading decisions to an AI ... so teachers could give better feedback!
The full piece has more detail, but @daisychristo and her team at No More Marking created a system that outsourced essay grading decisions to an AI ... so teachers could give better feedback!
This is actually a broadly observed thing. In 'AI Makes Bad Managers', the authors of StaySaaSy write:
staysaasy.com/management/...
Basically, managers will not improve if they've outsourced their subjective value judgments.
staysaasy.com/management/...
Basically, managers will not improve if they've outsourced their subjective value judgments.
September 17, 2025 at 4:02 AM
This is actually a broadly observed thing. In 'AI Makes Bad Managers', the authors of StaySaaSy write:
staysaasy.com/management/...
Basically, managers will not improve if they've outsourced their subjective value judgments.
staysaasy.com/management/...
Basically, managers will not improve if they've outsourced their subjective value judgments.
What does it mean to 'make meaning'? Well, the short answer is that it is whenever we as humans have to make a subjective value judgment. There are four types of meaning-making:
You should notice that this is a uniquely human thing, and should hold until we get to AGI.
You should notice that this is a uniquely human thing, and should hold until we get to AGI.
September 17, 2025 at 4:02 AM
What does it mean to 'make meaning'? Well, the short answer is that it is whenever we as humans have to make a subjective value judgment. There are four types of meaning-making:
You should notice that this is a uniquely human thing, and should hold until we get to AGI.
You should notice that this is a uniquely human thing, and should hold until we get to AGI.
Let's break it down:
1. The core of the argument is that AIs cannot 'make meaning'. AND they won't until we get to AGI (and even then it may be undesirable to outsource our subjective value judgments)
2. But the rule has an escape clause:
1. The core of the argument is that AIs cannot 'make meaning'. AND they won't until we get to AGI (and even then it may be undesirable to outsource our subjective value judgments)
2. But the rule has an escape clause:
September 17, 2025 at 4:02 AM
Let's break it down:
1. The core of the argument is that AIs cannot 'make meaning'. AND they won't until we get to AGI (and even then it may be undesirable to outsource our subjective value judgments)
2. But the rule has an escape clause:
1. The core of the argument is that AIs cannot 'make meaning'. AND they won't until we get to AGI (and even then it may be undesirable to outsource our subjective value judgments)
2. But the rule has an escape clause:
HOW do you use AI without becoming stupid?
Over the past couple of months, a small group of members on the Commoncog forums (myself included!) have been testing a universal rule for AI use in our businesses and careers.
It's out today.
Over the past couple of months, a small group of members on the Commoncog forums (myself included!) have been testing a universal rule for AI use in our businesses and careers.
It's out today.
September 17, 2025 at 4:02 AM
HOW do you use AI without becoming stupid?
Over the past couple of months, a small group of members on the Commoncog forums (myself included!) have been testing a universal rule for AI use in our businesses and careers.
It's out today.
Over the past couple of months, a small group of members on the Commoncog forums (myself included!) have been testing a universal rule for AI use in our businesses and careers.
It's out today.
Your relative scale means that new entrants who are smaller than you can't compete against you, and are defanged.
But the small size of your market means that larger players IGNORE you, because it's simply not worth it to invade your market.
But the small size of your market means that larger players IGNORE you, because it's simply not worth it to invade your market.
September 2, 2025 at 12:57 PM
Your relative scale means that new entrants who are smaller than you can't compete against you, and are defanged.
But the small size of your market means that larger players IGNORE you, because it's simply not worth it to invade your market.
But the small size of your market means that larger players IGNORE you, because it's simply not worth it to invade your market.
The dynamic goes something like this:
- You are the relative scale player in a small market, with only a few other competitors of equal scale.
- Usually the market is boring and overlooked, but the more important thing is that your market share is stable (<3% moves annually).
- You are the relative scale player in a small market, with only a few other competitors of equal scale.
- Usually the market is boring and overlooked, but the more important thing is that your market share is stable (<3% moves annually).
September 2, 2025 at 12:57 PM
The dynamic goes something like this:
- You are the relative scale player in a small market, with only a few other competitors of equal scale.
- Usually the market is boring and overlooked, but the more important thing is that your market share is stable (<3% moves annually).
- You are the relative scale player in a small market, with only a few other competitors of equal scale.
- Usually the market is boring and overlooked, but the more important thing is that your market share is stable (<3% moves annually).
So I had to settle for a plausible but wrong explanation.
This explanation was adapted from something that Andrej Karpathy said a few months ago.
Explanation included below:
This explanation was adapted from something that Andrej Karpathy said a few months ago.
Explanation included below:
August 30, 2025 at 3:01 AM
So I had to settle for a plausible but wrong explanation.
This explanation was adapted from something that Andrej Karpathy said a few months ago.
Explanation included below:
This explanation was adapted from something that Andrej Karpathy said a few months ago.
Explanation included below:
So what's the upshot of all this?
Language MATTERS. You need better language to defend yourself to your board or to your team.
So I think Vaughn was right:
Language MATTERS. You need better language to defend yourself to your board or to your team.
So I think Vaughn was right:
August 20, 2025 at 4:49 PM
So what's the upshot of all this?
Language MATTERS. You need better language to defend yourself to your board or to your team.
So I think Vaughn was right:
Language MATTERS. You need better language to defend yourself to your board or to your team.
So I think Vaughn was right:
Let's go back to Vaughn. One super useful way to apply this framework is to just build this into your experimentation loops.
If you're in a big company, you probably have to write some planning doc.
But if the thing you are doing is super uncertain, you can now go:
If you're in a big company, you probably have to write some planning doc.
But if the thing you are doing is super uncertain, you can now go:
August 20, 2025 at 4:49 PM
Let's go back to Vaughn. One super useful way to apply this framework is to just build this into your experimentation loops.
If you're in a big company, you probably have to write some planning doc.
But if the thing you are doing is super uncertain, you can now go:
If you're in a big company, you probably have to write some planning doc.
But if the thing you are doing is super uncertain, you can now go:
Really good entrepreneurs do this, of course. At the earliest stages of a startup, when they are 'taking action to generate information', it may seem like chaos but skilled entrepreneurs are actually always making sense of the 4 questions.
August 20, 2025 at 4:49 PM
Really good entrepreneurs do this, of course. At the earliest stages of a startup, when they are 'taking action to generate information', it may seem like chaos but skilled entrepreneurs are actually always making sense of the 4 questions.
What I found surprised me. It turned out that Vaughn was right — better language around uncertainty IS useful.
And in fact better language in business can be very helpful to the businessperson.
Exhibit A for this is the creation and subsequent popularisation of disruption:
And in fact better language in business can be very helpful to the businessperson.
Exhibit A for this is the creation and subsequent popularisation of disruption:
August 20, 2025 at 4:49 PM
What I found surprised me. It turned out that Vaughn was right — better language around uncertainty IS useful.
And in fact better language in business can be very helpful to the businessperson.
Exhibit A for this is the creation and subsequent popularisation of disruption:
And in fact better language in business can be very helpful to the businessperson.
Exhibit A for this is the creation and subsequent popularisation of disruption:
Neumann, btw, built a very successful VC career around Knightian uncertainty. So he was believable. If a startup idea was unknowable, he would invest. If it was knowable, he wouldn't.
The result was >50% IRR over 15 years. Which, maybe, luck. 🍀
But 🤷♂️
reactionwheel.net/2024/09/res...
The result was >50% IRR over 15 years. Which, maybe, luck. 🍀
But 🤷♂️
reactionwheel.net/2024/09/res...
August 20, 2025 at 4:49 PM
Neumann, btw, built a very successful VC career around Knightian uncertainty. So he was believable. If a startup idea was unknowable, he would invest. If it was knowable, he wouldn't.
The result was >50% IRR over 15 years. Which, maybe, luck. 🍀
But 🤷♂️
reactionwheel.net/2024/09/res...
The result was >50% IRR over 15 years. Which, maybe, luck. 🍀
But 🤷♂️
reactionwheel.net/2024/09/res...
I was in good company in my scepticism, though. Vaughn's friend, the notable VC Jerry Neumann, told him that he was sceptical Vaughn's project would be very useful.
Neumann argued that it wasn't important to know what types of uncertainty exist — merely how to use it.
Neumann argued that it wasn't important to know what types of uncertainty exist — merely how to use it.
August 20, 2025 at 4:48 PM
I was in good company in my scepticism, though. Vaughn's friend, the notable VC Jerry Neumann, told him that he was sceptical Vaughn's project would be very useful.
Neumann argued that it wasn't important to know what types of uncertainty exist — merely how to use it.
Neumann argued that it wasn't important to know what types of uncertainty exist — merely how to use it.
I am still waiting for a concrete example of a notetaking influencer improving their thinking through notetaking.
Getting a book about notetaking published does not indicate better thinking. 😉
I don't want this tweet to be a dunk, though, so I'll list concrete alternatives.
Getting a book about notetaking published does not indicate better thinking. 😉
I don't want this tweet to be a dunk, though, so I'll list concrete alternatives.
August 18, 2025 at 11:30 AM
I am still waiting for a concrete example of a notetaking influencer improving their thinking through notetaking.
Getting a book about notetaking published does not indicate better thinking. 😉
I don't want this tweet to be a dunk, though, so I'll list concrete alternatives.
Getting a book about notetaking published does not indicate better thinking. 😉
I don't want this tweet to be a dunk, though, so I'll list concrete alternatives.
Btw, to me, the more impressive thing is how Stephen Zerfas
used RPD for skill evaluation when building Jhourney.
Jhourney, if you don't know, is a startup that attempts to get more people to experience the Jhanas through tech.
Zerfas writes:
used RPD for skill evaluation when building Jhourney.
Jhourney, if you don't know, is a startup that attempts to get more people to experience the Jhanas through tech.
Zerfas writes:
July 29, 2025 at 5:21 AM
Btw, to me, the more impressive thing is how Stephen Zerfas
used RPD for skill evaluation when building Jhourney.
Jhourney, if you don't know, is a startup that attempts to get more people to experience the Jhanas through tech.
Zerfas writes:
used RPD for skill evaluation when building Jhourney.
Jhourney, if you don't know, is a startup that attempts to get more people to experience the Jhanas through tech.
Zerfas writes:
I think the last time I walked through the entire RPD model was in commoncog.com/putting-ment...
But Stephen Zerfas's application is far more useful than just the model alone.
Later, he put it to practice when he built Jhourney.
But Stephen Zerfas's application is far more useful than just the model alone.
Later, he put it to practice when he built Jhourney.
July 29, 2025 at 5:16 AM
I think the last time I walked through the entire RPD model was in commoncog.com/putting-ment...
But Stephen Zerfas's application is far more useful than just the model alone.
Later, he put it to practice when he built Jhourney.
But Stephen Zerfas's application is far more useful than just the model alone.
Later, he put it to practice when he built Jhourney.
A gentle reminder that if you want to speed up your intuition, you will do a lot better if you have an actual mental model of what expert intuition *is*.
The most useful model is the one below:
It gives you more handles on how to improve.
The most useful model is the one below:
It gives you more handles on how to improve.
July 29, 2025 at 5:13 AM
A gentle reminder that if you want to speed up your intuition, you will do a lot better if you have an actual mental model of what expert intuition *is*.
The most useful model is the one below:
It gives you more handles on how to improve.
The most useful model is the one below:
It gives you more handles on how to improve.