Chris Thornton
@cdthorn10.bsky.social
Recently retired engineer with interests in auto racing, music, cycling, investing and IPAs. Unless one is talking about beer, life is too short to be bitter. Any equity mentioned by name is not intended as an investment recommendation.
Dow Theory (11/19/25):
November is traditionally the best month for the S&P 500, with an average return of 1.8%. But this November valuation concerns and worries about AI spending have weighed on big tech stocks. . . Pullbacks are not unusual —and generally not a reason to sell.
www.dowtheory.com
November is traditionally the best month for the S&P 500, with an average return of 1.8%. But this November valuation concerns and worries about AI spending have weighed on big tech stocks. . . Pullbacks are not unusual —and generally not a reason to sell.
www.dowtheory.com
Dow Theory Forecasts
www.dowtheory.com
November 19, 2025 at 10:09 PM
Dow Theory (11/19/25):
November is traditionally the best month for the S&P 500, with an average return of 1.8%. But this November valuation concerns and worries about AI spending have weighed on big tech stocks. . . Pullbacks are not unusual —and generally not a reason to sell.
www.dowtheory.com
November is traditionally the best month for the S&P 500, with an average return of 1.8%. But this November valuation concerns and worries about AI spending have weighed on big tech stocks. . . Pullbacks are not unusual —and generally not a reason to sell.
www.dowtheory.com
Medicare has pre-announced the regular cost of Medicare Part B coverage for 2026.
Cost: $202.90/month (was $185)
Annual Deductible: $283 (was $257)
IRMAA threshold: $109k S/MFS; $218 MFJ *
(was $106k/$212k)
* MAGI, as calculated from 2024 tax returns.
www.medicare.gov/basics/costs...
Cost: $202.90/month (was $185)
Annual Deductible: $283 (was $257)
IRMAA threshold: $109k S/MFS; $218 MFJ *
(was $106k/$212k)
* MAGI, as calculated from 2024 tax returns.
www.medicare.gov/basics/costs...
Costs
What you pay for Medicare will vary based on what coverage and services you get, and what providers you visit.
www.medicare.gov
November 19, 2025 at 5:27 PM
Medicare has pre-announced the regular cost of Medicare Part B coverage for 2026.
Cost: $202.90/month (was $185)
Annual Deductible: $283 (was $257)
IRMAA threshold: $109k S/MFS; $218 MFJ *
(was $106k/$212k)
* MAGI, as calculated from 2024 tax returns.
www.medicare.gov/basics/costs...
Cost: $202.90/month (was $185)
Annual Deductible: $283 (was $257)
IRMAA threshold: $109k S/MFS; $218 MFJ *
(was $106k/$212k)
* MAGI, as calculated from 2024 tax returns.
www.medicare.gov/basics/costs...
An economic indicator causing concern is the CAPE ratio (Cyclical Adjusted Price/Earnings). It applies to the entire S&P 500 index and is now higher (almost 40) than at any time since the millennium says Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab.
www.npr.org/2025/11/13/n...
www.npr.org/2025/11/13/n...
Is an AI bubble brewing? Shiller PE Ratio nears levels seen before dot-com crash
The economic indicator known as the Shiller PE Ratio is almost as high as it was in November 1999, just before the dot-com bubble burst. Is another bubble forming with AI?
www.npr.org
November 13, 2025 at 6:53 PM
An economic indicator causing concern is the CAPE ratio (Cyclical Adjusted Price/Earnings). It applies to the entire S&P 500 index and is now higher (almost 40) than at any time since the millennium says Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab.
www.npr.org/2025/11/13/n...
www.npr.org/2025/11/13/n...
Weekly update from the Dow Theory newsletter:
"A slowdown in consumer spending may be the biggest risk to the economy — and the stock market. With so much U.S. spending growth now coming from high-income consumers, a steep market correction . . could spark an economic slowdown."
www.dowtheory.com
"A slowdown in consumer spending may be the biggest risk to the economy — and the stock market. With so much U.S. spending growth now coming from high-income consumers, a steep market correction . . could spark an economic slowdown."
www.dowtheory.com
Dow Theory Forecasts
www.dowtheory.com
November 13, 2025 at 4:09 PM
Weekly update from the Dow Theory newsletter:
"A slowdown in consumer spending may be the biggest risk to the economy — and the stock market. With so much U.S. spending growth now coming from high-income consumers, a steep market correction . . could spark an economic slowdown."
www.dowtheory.com
"A slowdown in consumer spending may be the biggest risk to the economy — and the stock market. With so much U.S. spending growth now coming from high-income consumers, a steep market correction . . could spark an economic slowdown."
www.dowtheory.com
Nokia stock (NOK) rose 10% today, to above resistance at 5.7 that's held almost 10 yrs. The company reported rising demand (+28%) from AI and cloud customers, for network infrastructure. CEO Justin Hotard said on a call. “We’re still at the very early innings of . . . a tremendous AI super cycle.”
October 23, 2025 at 4:05 PM
Nokia stock (NOK) rose 10% today, to above resistance at 5.7 that's held almost 10 yrs. The company reported rising demand (+28%) from AI and cloud customers, for network infrastructure. CEO Justin Hotard said on a call. “We’re still at the very early innings of . . . a tremendous AI super cycle.”
He was just a singer in a rock and roll band:
I’m finding this news somewhat difficult to accept after seeing John Lodge perform on stage in the Chicago area just a couple of months ago. This means that Justin Hayward is now the last surviving member of The Moody Blues.
I’m finding this news somewhat difficult to accept after seeing John Lodge perform on stage in the Chicago area just a couple of months ago. This means that Justin Hayward is now the last surviving member of The Moody Blues.
October 11, 2025 at 9:47 PM
He was just a singer in a rock and roll band:
I’m finding this news somewhat difficult to accept after seeing John Lodge perform on stage in the Chicago area just a couple of months ago. This means that Justin Hayward is now the last surviving member of The Moody Blues.
I’m finding this news somewhat difficult to accept after seeing John Lodge perform on stage in the Chicago area just a couple of months ago. This means that Justin Hayward is now the last surviving member of The Moody Blues.
Lisa Abramowicz, Bloomberg Surveillance:
“Consumers in the top 10% of the income distribution accounted for 49.2% of total US spending in Q2, up from 48.5% in Q1, reaching the highest level in data going back to 1989: Moody’s Analytics Mark Zandi”
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
“Consumers in the top 10% of the income distribution accounted for 49.2% of total US spending in Q2, up from 48.5% in Q1, reaching the highest level in data going back to 1989: Moody’s Analytics Mark Zandi”
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
September 16, 2025 at 4:23 PM
Lisa Abramowicz, Bloomberg Surveillance:
“Consumers in the top 10% of the income distribution accounted for 49.2% of total US spending in Q2, up from 48.5% in Q1, reaching the highest level in data going back to 1989: Moody’s Analytics Mark Zandi”
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
“Consumers in the top 10% of the income distribution accounted for 49.2% of total US spending in Q2, up from 48.5% in Q1, reaching the highest level in data going back to 1989: Moody’s Analytics Mark Zandi”
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
I earned this badge on Untappd after reviewing a “Charlatan” American Pale Ale by Maplewood Brewery in Normal, IL.
untappd.com/user/SeedyTe...
untappd.com/user/SeedyTe...
Chris unlocked a badge!
Middle of the Road (Level 40): Looking for more kick than a session beer, but want to be able to stay for a few rounds? You have to keep it in the middle. That's 200 beers with an ABV greater than 5% ...
untappd.com
September 12, 2025 at 11:28 PM
I earned this badge on Untappd after reviewing a “Charlatan” American Pale Ale by Maplewood Brewery in Normal, IL.
untappd.com/user/SeedyTe...
untappd.com/user/SeedyTe...
NPR's Michel Martin spoke to Robert Pape, Prof. of political science at the University of Chicago, about Americans' changing attitudes toward political violence. The reasons Pape gives for both the rise (and increased acceptance) of violence are blunt and to the point.
www.npr.org/2025/09/12/n...
www.npr.org/2025/09/12/n...
A look at research on Americans' changing attitudes toward political violence
NPR's Michel Martin speaks with Robert Pape, a professor of political science at the University of Chicago, about Americans' changing attitudes toward political violence.
www.npr.org
September 12, 2025 at 9:19 PM
NPR's Michel Martin spoke to Robert Pape, Prof. of political science at the University of Chicago, about Americans' changing attitudes toward political violence. The reasons Pape gives for both the rise (and increased acceptance) of violence are blunt and to the point.
www.npr.org/2025/09/12/n...
www.npr.org/2025/09/12/n...
Over Labor Day weekend I caught Anne Harris’s performance at the Fox Valley Folk Music & Storytelling Festival in Geneva, IL. I found her music captivating –almost spiritual.
Rock fiddler Anne Harris graduated from the ‘university of blues.’ Now, she’s going solo. www.wbez.org/music/2025/0...
Rock fiddler Anne Harris graduated from the ‘university of blues.’ Now, she’s going solo. www.wbez.org/music/2025/0...
Rock fiddler Anne Harris graduated from the ‘university of blues.’ Now, she’s going solo.
The Elmhurst musician — the first professional Black musician to play a violin made by a Black luthier — will take the spotlight at the Fox Valley Folk Festival Aug. 31 and Sept. 1.
www.wbez.org
September 3, 2025 at 12:31 AM
Over Labor Day weekend I caught Anne Harris’s performance at the Fox Valley Folk Music & Storytelling Festival in Geneva, IL. I found her music captivating –almost spiritual.
Rock fiddler Anne Harris graduated from the ‘university of blues.’ Now, she’s going solo. www.wbez.org/music/2025/0...
Rock fiddler Anne Harris graduated from the ‘university of blues.’ Now, she’s going solo. www.wbez.org/music/2025/0...
The largest 50 stocks in the S&P 500 index now trade at 26x expected current-year earnings; 33% above the norm since 2004.
Over the last 12 months, they delivered profit growth of 14%. That compares to 6.8% for all S&P 500 stocks, 5.5% for the S&P 400, and 2.2% for S&P 600 stocks.
www.dowtheory.com
Over the last 12 months, they delivered profit growth of 14%. That compares to 6.8% for all S&P 500 stocks, 5.5% for the S&P 400, and 2.2% for S&P 600 stocks.
www.dowtheory.com
Dow Theory Forecasts
www.dowtheory.com
August 15, 2025 at 1:27 AM
The largest 50 stocks in the S&P 500 index now trade at 26x expected current-year earnings; 33% above the norm since 2004.
Over the last 12 months, they delivered profit growth of 14%. That compares to 6.8% for all S&P 500 stocks, 5.5% for the S&P 400, and 2.2% for S&P 600 stocks.
www.dowtheory.com
Over the last 12 months, they delivered profit growth of 14%. That compares to 6.8% for all S&P 500 stocks, 5.5% for the S&P 400, and 2.2% for S&P 600 stocks.
www.dowtheory.com
I earned this badge on the Untappd app’ after posting a review of a ‘Bahama Boots’ hazy IPA by Penrose Brewery in Geneva IL.
untappd.com/user/SeedyTe...
untappd.com/user/SeedyTe...
Chris unlocked a badge!
IPA Day (2025): Hoppy IPA Day!
Did you know that, since our inception in 2010, our hoppy lil’ community has checked in over 400 million IPAs? That’s a seriously staggering amount of hops!
untappd.com
August 7, 2025 at 11:23 PM
I earned this badge on the Untappd app’ after posting a review of a ‘Bahama Boots’ hazy IPA by Penrose Brewery in Geneva IL.
untappd.com/user/SeedyTe...
untappd.com/user/SeedyTe...
The first 5 minutes of this podcast Sabri Ben-Achor explains how our trade imbalance has resulted in foreign investment. The conundrum? The recent trade agreements with the EU and Japan include ~$1T of investments, which can only occur by way of a trade imbalance.
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/m...
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/m...
Consumers are still stressed about the job market
Podcast Episode · Marketplace · 07/29/2025 · 26m
podcasts.apple.com
July 29, 2025 at 10:53 PM
The first 5 minutes of this podcast Sabri Ben-Achor explains how our trade imbalance has resulted in foreign investment. The conundrum? The recent trade agreements with the EU and Japan include ~$1T of investments, which can only occur by way of a trade imbalance.
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/m...
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/m...
AI needs solar: New AI superclusters will require vast amounts of power. Nvidia’s Rubin Ultra AI server (2027) will draw 600 kW per rack (a home uses 2–5 kW). To meet the power need, the U.S. will need to add 50 GW of additional capacity by 2028; about several power stations. @Barrons.com Technology
July 24, 2025 at 2:15 PM
AI needs solar: New AI superclusters will require vast amounts of power. Nvidia’s Rubin Ultra AI server (2027) will draw 600 kW per rack (a home uses 2–5 kW). To meet the power need, the U.S. will need to add 50 GW of additional capacity by 2028; about several power stations. @Barrons.com Technology
Received this badge from Untappd after posting taste notes for a pint of ‘Avenue of the Giants’ west coast IPA at Art History Brewing in Geneva, Illinois.
untappd.com/user/SeedyTe...
untappd.com/user/SeedyTe...
Chris unlocked a badge!
Find the Source (Level 3): Everyone loves fresh beer, but obviously not as much as you do. You went straight to the source.
That's a beer at 15 different venues categorized as a Brewery, Cidery or M...
untappd.com
July 20, 2025 at 10:49 PM
Received this badge from Untappd after posting taste notes for a pint of ‘Avenue of the Giants’ west coast IPA at Art History Brewing in Geneva, Illinois.
untappd.com/user/SeedyTe...
untappd.com/user/SeedyTe...
First, more than a third of tipped workers don’t make enough to pay any federal income taxes. For those that do benefit, total income is limited to $150k ($300k MFJ) and then capped to $25k of tip income. The law sunsets in 2028 but will likely have enough bipartisan support to be extended.
President Trump promised “no tax on tips,” but for some workers, the details in the megabill say something else.
🔗: https://on.wsj.com/4nFvKJW
🔗: https://on.wsj.com/4nFvKJW
July 7, 2025 at 12:33 AM
First, more than a third of tipped workers don’t make enough to pay any federal income taxes. For those that do benefit, total income is limited to $150k ($300k MFJ) and then capped to $25k of tip income. The law sunsets in 2028 but will likely have enough bipartisan support to be extended.
A quick brief of the individual tax provisions of the OBBB by
tax columnist Laura Saunders. Most notable:
• SALT deduction increases to $40,000 (thro' 2029)
• Charity deduction of $1,000/person outside Sched A
• Tax breaks on tips, overtime, & extra deduction of $6,000/person for those over 65.
tax columnist Laura Saunders. Most notable:
• SALT deduction increases to $40,000 (thro' 2029)
• Charity deduction of $1,000/person outside Sched A
• Tax breaks on tips, overtime, & extra deduction of $6,000/person for those over 65.
The just-passed tax-and-spending package provides certainty for filers for the first time in years. Here's what you need to know.
How Trump’s Megabill Will and Won’t Change Your Taxes
The just-passed tax-and-spending package provides certainty for filers for the first time in years.
on.wsj.com
July 4, 2025 at 4:59 PM
A quick brief of the individual tax provisions of the OBBB by
tax columnist Laura Saunders. Most notable:
• SALT deduction increases to $40,000 (thro' 2029)
• Charity deduction of $1,000/person outside Sched A
• Tax breaks on tips, overtime, & extra deduction of $6,000/person for those over 65.
tax columnist Laura Saunders. Most notable:
• SALT deduction increases to $40,000 (thro' 2029)
• Charity deduction of $1,000/person outside Sched A
• Tax breaks on tips, overtime, & extra deduction of $6,000/person for those over 65.
I had reservations about this album following weeks of perpetual reposts on ‘X’. But after listening to the whole album for the first time, I think this is Orianthi’s best album to date. I’m looking forward to seeing her perform in the Chicago area again this Fall.
"Some Kind of Feeling is an outstanding record that flirts with pop, country, soul, rock, and blues, blending them effortlessly into a cohesive unit."
bluesrockreview.com/2025/06/oria...
bluesrockreview.com/2025/06/oria...
Orianthi: Some Kind of Feeling Review - Blues Rock Review
Orianthi’s back! Brand new album Some Kind of Feeling, released on June 27th via Woodward Avenue Records, contains 9 fresh
bluesrockreview.com
July 1, 2025 at 2:07 AM
I had reservations about this album following weeks of perpetual reposts on ‘X’. But after listening to the whole album for the first time, I think this is Orianthi’s best album to date. I’m looking forward to seeing her perform in the Chicago area again this Fall.
At the Chicago Blues Festival on Sunday saw impressive performances from several Chicago blues veterans. What grabbed my attention was a younger less-known artist, Keya Trammell, who sang the national anthem. Her introduction starts at 1:45:00 into the stream.
www.youtube.com/live/zUewlpS...
www.youtube.com/live/zUewlpS...
2025 Chicago Blues Festival LIVE at the Jay Pritzker Pavilion — June 8 PART 1
YouTube video by Chicago DCASE
www.youtube.com
June 9, 2025 at 7:00 PM
At the Chicago Blues Festival on Sunday saw impressive performances from several Chicago blues veterans. What grabbed my attention was a younger less-known artist, Keya Trammell, who sang the national anthem. Her introduction starts at 1:45:00 into the stream.
www.youtube.com/live/zUewlpS...
www.youtube.com/live/zUewlpS...
The official spotter guide for the upcoming 24 Heures du Mans race on 6/14 is available via the link below.
Fun fact! Aston Martin enters this year’s race with two cars in the Hypercar class. And one of those cars is assigned the number, “007.”
assets.lemans.org/explorer/pdf...
Fun fact! Aston Martin enters this year’s race with two cars in the Hypercar class. And one of those cars is assigned the number, “007.”
assets.lemans.org/explorer/pdf...
assets.lemans.org
June 5, 2025 at 5:05 PM
The official spotter guide for the upcoming 24 Heures du Mans race on 6/14 is available via the link below.
Fun fact! Aston Martin enters this year’s race with two cars in the Hypercar class. And one of those cars is assigned the number, “007.”
assets.lemans.org/explorer/pdf...
Fun fact! Aston Martin enters this year’s race with two cars in the Hypercar class. And one of those cars is assigned the number, “007.”
assets.lemans.org/explorer/pdf...
This Memorial Day weekend SiriusXM’s Classic Vinyl channel is periodically repeating the top-50 albums from 1975, as voted by “Super Listeners.”
Of the twenty or so albums in my collection from that year only four overlap. My tastes are obviously quite different.
Of the twenty or so albums in my collection from that year only four overlap. My tastes are obviously quite different.
May 24, 2025 at 5:15 PM
This Memorial Day weekend SiriusXM’s Classic Vinyl channel is periodically repeating the top-50 albums from 1975, as voted by “Super Listeners.”
Of the twenty or so albums in my collection from that year only four overlap. My tastes are obviously quite different.
Of the twenty or so albums in my collection from that year only four overlap. My tastes are obviously quite different.
Dow Theory Forecast, 5/14/2025: Stocks have surged on easing trade tensions, with both the Dow Industrials and Transports recovering all ground lost since "Liberation Day" (April 2). While encouraged by the broad advance, we're inclined to view it as a bear-market rally.
dtf.horizonpublishing.com
dtf.horizonpublishing.com
Home - Dow Theory Forecasts
Unlocking the power of your completeinvestment service As you will discover, Dow Theory Forecasts is written with the busy reader in mind. You will not find laborious “think pieces” that
dtf.horizonpublishing.com
May 15, 2025 at 3:36 PM
Dow Theory Forecast, 5/14/2025: Stocks have surged on easing trade tensions, with both the Dow Industrials and Transports recovering all ground lost since "Liberation Day" (April 2). While encouraged by the broad advance, we're inclined to view it as a bear-market rally.
dtf.horizonpublishing.com
dtf.horizonpublishing.com
Sharon van Etten performed at The Salt Shed in Chicago on Friday 5/9, starting out with two songs from her latest album.
• Forever
• Afterlife
I liken her genre to alternative with a gothic flare. Very artsy! At 44 she’s starting to worry about her mortality.
@saltshedchicago.bsky.social.
• Forever
• Afterlife
I liken her genre to alternative with a gothic flare. Very artsy! At 44 she’s starting to worry about her mortality.
@saltshedchicago.bsky.social.
May 10, 2025 at 11:03 PM
Sharon van Etten performed at The Salt Shed in Chicago on Friday 5/9, starting out with two songs from her latest album.
• Forever
• Afterlife
I liken her genre to alternative with a gothic flare. Very artsy! At 44 she’s starting to worry about her mortality.
@saltshedchicago.bsky.social.
• Forever
• Afterlife
I liken her genre to alternative with a gothic flare. Very artsy! At 44 she’s starting to worry about her mortality.
@saltshedchicago.bsky.social.
Dow Theory Forecasts Newsletter, 5/7/2025:
“We tend to view the recent move as a bear-market rally rather than a turn of the tide. It would take a pattern of higher highs and higher lows to turn the Dow Theory bullish again.”
www.dowtheory.com
“We tend to view the recent move as a bear-market rally rather than a turn of the tide. It would take a pattern of higher highs and higher lows to turn the Dow Theory bullish again.”
www.dowtheory.com
Dow Theory Forecasts
www.dowtheory.com
May 7, 2025 at 10:54 PM
Dow Theory Forecasts Newsletter, 5/7/2025:
“We tend to view the recent move as a bear-market rally rather than a turn of the tide. It would take a pattern of higher highs and higher lows to turn the Dow Theory bullish again.”
www.dowtheory.com
“We tend to view the recent move as a bear-market rally rather than a turn of the tide. It would take a pattern of higher highs and higher lows to turn the Dow Theory bullish again.”
www.dowtheory.com
Hey JD Vance! At the GOP convention last summer, Trump offered to cover the cost of in-vitro fertilization to project the GOP as being family friendly. But for such a program to work, couples must still want and be able to afford raising kids. Otherwise, we can only expect more cat ladies.
The Trump administration plans to axe the Head Start program next year as part of a large reduction in federal government programs and services. Nationally, the program serves 750,000 kids, about 75% of them in what Head Start deems as “quality” preschool centers. www.wbez.org/education/20...
With Head Start preschool on Trump’s chopping block, parents warn of impact on kids
President Donald Trump plans to axe the early childhood day care and preschool program as he reduces the size of federal government.
www.wbez.org
April 28, 2025 at 7:52 PM
Hey JD Vance! At the GOP convention last summer, Trump offered to cover the cost of in-vitro fertilization to project the GOP as being family friendly. But for such a program to work, couples must still want and be able to afford raising kids. Otherwise, we can only expect more cat ladies.