🇨🇦 Policy Hawk
@cdnpolicyhawk.bsky.social
Strategic communications professional and former policy analyst.
Planting trees whose shade I may never know.
I comment on CAF, economics, politics.
Planting trees whose shade I may never know.
I comment on CAF, economics, politics.
Canada's Arctic policies shouldn't copy Russia's. They should reflect its own geography, economy, and strategic needs.
Different challenges. Different opportunities. Different countries.
/fin
Different challenges. Different opportunities. Different countries.
/fin
August 2, 2025 at 2:01 PM
Canada's Arctic policies shouldn't copy Russia's. They should reflect its own geography, economy, and strategic needs.
Different challenges. Different opportunities. Different countries.
/fin
Different challenges. Different opportunities. Different countries.
/fin
Canada’s in-construction pair of Polar-class icebreakers will exceed the ice-breaking capability of any ship Russia operates—including its nuclear-powered icebreakers.
Why?
Because Canada faces thicker, harder ice, closer to home more often.
That’s Canada’s necessity.
Why?
Because Canada faces thicker, harder ice, closer to home more often.
That’s Canada’s necessity.
August 2, 2025 at 2:01 PM
Canada’s in-construction pair of Polar-class icebreakers will exceed the ice-breaking capability of any ship Russia operates—including its nuclear-powered icebreakers.
Why?
Because Canada faces thicker, harder ice, closer to home more often.
That’s Canada’s necessity.
Why?
Because Canada faces thicker, harder ice, closer to home more often.
That’s Canada’s necessity.
Similarly, Canada is sometimes criticized for not investing in nuclear powered icebreakers as Russia does.
However, Russia’s geography requires its icebreakers to remain in the Arctic year-round, where keeping them fueled is logistically difficult and expensive.
However, Russia’s geography requires its icebreakers to remain in the Arctic year-round, where keeping them fueled is logistically difficult and expensive.
August 2, 2025 at 2:01 PM
Similarly, Canada is sometimes criticized for not investing in nuclear powered icebreakers as Russia does.
However, Russia’s geography requires its icebreakers to remain in the Arctic year-round, where keeping them fueled is logistically difficult and expensive.
However, Russia’s geography requires its icebreakers to remain in the Arctic year-round, where keeping them fueled is logistically difficult and expensive.
This leads to differences in how the two countries invest in the Arctic.
For example: Canada is often criticized for not “keeping up” with Russia’s icebreaker fleet.
But the incentives justifying Russia’s fleet - both economic and strategic - simply don’t exist for Canada.
For example: Canada is often criticized for not “keeping up” with Russia’s icebreaker fleet.
But the incentives justifying Russia’s fleet - both economic and strategic - simply don’t exist for Canada.
August 2, 2025 at 2:01 PM
This leads to differences in how the two countries invest in the Arctic.
For example: Canada is often criticized for not “keeping up” with Russia’s icebreaker fleet.
But the incentives justifying Russia’s fleet - both economic and strategic - simply don’t exist for Canada.
For example: Canada is often criticized for not “keeping up” with Russia’s icebreaker fleet.
But the incentives justifying Russia’s fleet - both economic and strategic - simply don’t exist for Canada.
Russia’s situation is very different.
Russia’s best Western ports—St. Petersburg and Novorossiysk—are stuck in inland seas (the Baltic and Black seas, respectively), bottlenecked by potentially unfriendly powers.
Russia’s best Western ports—St. Petersburg and Novorossiysk—are stuck in inland seas (the Baltic and Black seas, respectively), bottlenecked by potentially unfriendly powers.
August 2, 2025 at 2:01 PM
Russia’s situation is very different.
Russia’s best Western ports—St. Petersburg and Novorossiysk—are stuck in inland seas (the Baltic and Black seas, respectively), bottlenecked by potentially unfriendly powers.
Russia’s best Western ports—St. Petersburg and Novorossiysk—are stuck in inland seas (the Baltic and Black seas, respectively), bottlenecked by potentially unfriendly powers.
Canada also has the Great Lakes–St. Lawrence Seaway: not ice-free, but is the farthest inland navigable waterway on Earth, and cuts through Canada’s industrial heartland on its way to vast interior resources.
Bottom line: Canada doesn’t need to ship through the Arctic.
Bottom line: Canada doesn’t need to ship through the Arctic.
August 2, 2025 at 2:01 PM
Canada also has the Great Lakes–St. Lawrence Seaway: not ice-free, but is the farthest inland navigable waterway on Earth, and cuts through Canada’s industrial heartland on its way to vast interior resources.
Bottom line: Canada doesn’t need to ship through the Arctic.
Bottom line: Canada doesn’t need to ship through the Arctic.
Canada by contrast has one “Arctic” port: Churchill.
But its closest major city, also ~1300km away, is Winnipeg (Pop. ~800k), and Churchill is still 1,000km from the Arctic Circle.
To get truly Arctic you’re looking at Tuktoyaktuk. Closest city of size? Whitehorse (Pop. ~30k).
But its closest major city, also ~1300km away, is Winnipeg (Pop. ~800k), and Churchill is still 1,000km from the Arctic Circle.
To get truly Arctic you’re looking at Tuktoyaktuk. Closest city of size? Whitehorse (Pop. ~30k).
August 2, 2025 at 2:01 PM
Canada by contrast has one “Arctic” port: Churchill.
But its closest major city, also ~1300km away, is Winnipeg (Pop. ~800k), and Churchill is still 1,000km from the Arctic Circle.
To get truly Arctic you’re looking at Tuktoyaktuk. Closest city of size? Whitehorse (Pop. ~30k).
But its closest major city, also ~1300km away, is Winnipeg (Pop. ~800k), and Churchill is still 1,000km from the Arctic Circle.
To get truly Arctic you’re looking at Tuktoyaktuk. Closest city of size? Whitehorse (Pop. ~30k).
The second key difference is how accessible the Arctic is from each country’s economic centre.
Russia’s main economic centres - Moscow and St. Petersburg, with a combined population of ~18 million - are both under 1,300km from Arctic-facing ports like Severodvinsk.
Russia’s main economic centres - Moscow and St. Petersburg, with a combined population of ~18 million - are both under 1,300km from Arctic-facing ports like Severodvinsk.
August 2, 2025 at 2:01 PM
The second key difference is how accessible the Arctic is from each country’s economic centre.
Russia’s main economic centres - Moscow and St. Petersburg, with a combined population of ~18 million - are both under 1,300km from Arctic-facing ports like Severodvinsk.
Russia’s main economic centres - Moscow and St. Petersburg, with a combined population of ~18 million - are both under 1,300km from Arctic-facing ports like Severodvinsk.
This difference in shipping seasons matters.
Sea shipping is by far the lowest cost way to move goods. It’s hard to be economically competitive without it.
So easier Arctic shipping means more trade, and more trade drives development.
Sea shipping is by far the lowest cost way to move goods. It’s hard to be economically competitive without it.
So easier Arctic shipping means more trade, and more trade drives development.
August 2, 2025 at 2:01 PM
This difference in shipping seasons matters.
Sea shipping is by far the lowest cost way to move goods. It’s hard to be economically competitive without it.
So easier Arctic shipping means more trade, and more trade drives development.
Sea shipping is by far the lowest cost way to move goods. It’s hard to be economically competitive without it.
So easier Arctic shipping means more trade, and more trade drives development.
In warm waters, barrier islands are a benefit - creating sheltered routes for ships.
In the Arctic? They trap ice.
Sea ice around Canada piles into massive ridges in winter - impassable to even the heaviest icebreakers - and lingers longer into summer.
In the Arctic? They trap ice.
Sea ice around Canada piles into massive ridges in winter - impassable to even the heaviest icebreakers - and lingers longer into summer.
August 2, 2025 at 2:01 PM
In warm waters, barrier islands are a benefit - creating sheltered routes for ships.
In the Arctic? They trap ice.
Sea ice around Canada piles into massive ridges in winter - impassable to even the heaviest icebreakers - and lingers longer into summer.
In the Arctic? They trap ice.
Sea ice around Canada piles into massive ridges in winter - impassable to even the heaviest icebreakers - and lingers longer into summer.
First, the Arctic’s physical geography.
North of Canada’s main landmass is a dense archipelago - nearly 100 large islands (and thousands of small ones) with narrow channels in between.
Russia’s Arctic is mostly a single, contiguous, coastline with a few scattered islands.
North of Canada’s main landmass is a dense archipelago - nearly 100 large islands (and thousands of small ones) with narrow channels in between.
Russia’s Arctic is mostly a single, contiguous, coastline with a few scattered islands.
August 2, 2025 at 2:01 PM
First, the Arctic’s physical geography.
North of Canada’s main landmass is a dense archipelago - nearly 100 large islands (and thousands of small ones) with narrow channels in between.
Russia’s Arctic is mostly a single, contiguous, coastline with a few scattered islands.
North of Canada’s main landmass is a dense archipelago - nearly 100 large islands (and thousands of small ones) with narrow channels in between.
Russia’s Arctic is mostly a single, contiguous, coastline with a few scattered islands.
Canada’s renewed focus on Arctic security has led to lots of comparisons with Russia’s Arctic posture - usually to Canada’s disadvantage.
But these comparisons tend to ignore some key realities. I want to break some of that down. 🧵
But these comparisons tend to ignore some key realities. I want to break some of that down. 🧵
August 2, 2025 at 2:01 PM
Canada’s renewed focus on Arctic security has led to lots of comparisons with Russia’s Arctic posture - usually to Canada’s disadvantage.
But these comparisons tend to ignore some key realities. I want to break some of that down. 🧵
But these comparisons tend to ignore some key realities. I want to break some of that down. 🧵
South Korea's KF-21 - the stealthiest non-US fighter flying in a Western-aligned air force - subject to ITAR.
Japan's F-2 - ITAR.
The only in-production modern fighter made by a Western-aligned nation not subject to ITAR is the French Rafale... but some of its weapons are.
Japan's F-2 - ITAR.
The only in-production modern fighter made by a Western-aligned nation not subject to ITAR is the French Rafale... but some of its weapons are.
March 15, 2025 at 2:37 AM
South Korea's KF-21 - the stealthiest non-US fighter flying in a Western-aligned air force - subject to ITAR.
Japan's F-2 - ITAR.
The only in-production modern fighter made by a Western-aligned nation not subject to ITAR is the French Rafale... but some of its weapons are.
Japan's F-2 - ITAR.
The only in-production modern fighter made by a Western-aligned nation not subject to ITAR is the French Rafale... but some of its weapons are.
The Swedish Gripen was the only other aircraft (apart from the F-35) which got to the end of Canada's fighter competition - it's subject to ITAR.
The Eurofighter - used by several European allies - subject to ITAR.
The F/A-18 Super Hornet we once planned to sole-source - ITAR.
The Eurofighter - used by several European allies - subject to ITAR.
The F/A-18 Super Hornet we once planned to sole-source - ITAR.
March 15, 2025 at 2:37 AM
The Swedish Gripen was the only other aircraft (apart from the F-35) which got to the end of Canada's fighter competition - it's subject to ITAR.
The Eurofighter - used by several European allies - subject to ITAR.
The F/A-18 Super Hornet we once planned to sole-source - ITAR.
The Eurofighter - used by several European allies - subject to ITAR.
The F/A-18 Super Hornet we once planned to sole-source - ITAR.
And there are very few sophisticated military systems produced in Western-aligned countries that don't use US components.
To illustrate this, since we're talking about F-35 alternatives, let's run through the list of possible other options:
To illustrate this, since we're talking about F-35 alternatives, let's run through the list of possible other options:
March 15, 2025 at 2:37 AM
And there are very few sophisticated military systems produced in Western-aligned countries that don't use US components.
To illustrate this, since we're talking about F-35 alternatives, let's run through the list of possible other options:
To illustrate this, since we're talking about F-35 alternatives, let's run through the list of possible other options:
That would have huge negative consequences for CAF capabilities.
One concern: We just spent years doing the design work to build 15 River Class Destroyers - the largest procurement in CAF history - on the assumption we could use US systems. Kiss that goodbye.
For another: ITAR.
One concern: We just spent years doing the design work to build 15 River Class Destroyers - the largest procurement in CAF history - on the assumption we could use US systems. Kiss that goodbye.
For another: ITAR.
March 15, 2025 at 2:37 AM
That would have huge negative consequences for CAF capabilities.
One concern: We just spent years doing the design work to build 15 River Class Destroyers - the largest procurement in CAF history - on the assumption we could use US systems. Kiss that goodbye.
For another: ITAR.
One concern: We just spent years doing the design work to build 15 River Class Destroyers - the largest procurement in CAF history - on the assumption we could use US systems. Kiss that goodbye.
For another: ITAR.
And while it's conceivable that Canadians might, eventually, make the choice that they want those luxuries more than independence; I wouldn't bet on it.
The fact is that our economic position means it will *always* be our choice to make. And, whatever they do, we can always turn to America and say:
The fact is that our economic position means it will *always* be our choice to make. And, whatever they do, we can always turn to America and say:
February 3, 2025 at 4:50 PM
And while it's conceivable that Canadians might, eventually, make the choice that they want those luxuries more than independence; I wouldn't bet on it.
The fact is that our economic position means it will *always* be our choice to make. And, whatever they do, we can always turn to America and say:
The fact is that our economic position means it will *always* be our choice to make. And, whatever they do, we can always turn to America and say:
Added to the US thing being dumb, she shows a complete lack of understanding of the RCAF.
CANR HQ is not a "base". It's also not a unit that it really makes sense to duplicate at another location within Canada.
CANR HQ is not a "base". It's also not a unit that it really makes sense to duplicate at another location within Canada.
January 31, 2025 at 1:54 AM
Added to the US thing being dumb, she shows a complete lack of understanding of the RCAF.
CANR HQ is not a "base". It's also not a unit that it really makes sense to duplicate at another location within Canada.
CANR HQ is not a "base". It's also not a unit that it really makes sense to duplicate at another location within Canada.
Canada's population map is absolutely fascinating.
It has so much political and economic explanatory power - both historically and in terms of future opportunity.
It has so much political and economic explanatory power - both historically and in terms of future opportunity.
January 28, 2025 at 3:47 AM
Canada's population map is absolutely fascinating.
It has so much political and economic explanatory power - both historically and in terms of future opportunity.
It has so much political and economic explanatory power - both historically and in terms of future opportunity.
It was clear from other public facing information that CAF recruitment was doing significantly better this year - but it's awesome to get confirmation from the top.
Looking forward to hearing in April that we hit those targets.
www.ctvnews.ca/canada/artic...
Looking forward to hearing in April that we hit those targets.
www.ctvnews.ca/canada/artic...
January 22, 2025 at 8:40 PM
It was clear from other public facing information that CAF recruitment was doing significantly better this year - but it's awesome to get confirmation from the top.
Looking forward to hearing in April that we hit those targets.
www.ctvnews.ca/canada/artic...
Looking forward to hearing in April that we hit those targets.
www.ctvnews.ca/canada/artic...
lol, kudos to Paul Wells for calling out Trudeau's bullshit in electoral reform today.
It's not the issue of the day, and it would have been so easy to let it pass. But after years of Liberal gaslighting, it's a joy to be reminded that some folks remember what actually happened.
It's not the issue of the day, and it would have been so easy to let it pass. But after years of Liberal gaslighting, it's a joy to be reminded that some folks remember what actually happened.
January 6, 2025 at 9:18 PM
lol, kudos to Paul Wells for calling out Trudeau's bullshit in electoral reform today.
It's not the issue of the day, and it would have been so easy to let it pass. But after years of Liberal gaslighting, it's a joy to be reminded that some folks remember what actually happened.
It's not the issue of the day, and it would have been so easy to let it pass. But after years of Liberal gaslighting, it's a joy to be reminded that some folks remember what actually happened.
Look at the "wheel ruts".
Even for their winter promo shots, Tesla has so little faith in the Cyber Truck that they need to dig out a path for it.
Even for their winter promo shots, Tesla has so little faith in the Cyber Truck that they need to dig out a path for it.
January 1, 2025 at 12:51 AM
Look at the "wheel ruts".
Even for their winter promo shots, Tesla has so little faith in the Cyber Truck that they need to dig out a path for it.
Even for their winter promo shots, Tesla has so little faith in the Cyber Truck that they need to dig out a path for it.
I got curious today about what the timelines of the different stages of the Harry DeWolf class construction looked like - so I made a spreadsheet to lay it out visually.
I thought it might be interesting enough to the crowd who follows me to be worth sharing.
I thought it might be interesting enough to the crowd who follows me to be worth sharing.
December 12, 2024 at 3:19 AM
I got curious today about what the timelines of the different stages of the Harry DeWolf class construction looked like - so I made a spreadsheet to lay it out visually.
I thought it might be interesting enough to the crowd who follows me to be worth sharing.
I thought it might be interesting enough to the crowd who follows me to be worth sharing.