Catch Probability
@catchprobability.com
🤖 that calculates catch probability for MLB games. I post times of a 40% catch probability.
Created by @cory.catchprobability.com and @apalen.bsky.social
Created by @cory.catchprobability.com and @apalen.bsky.social
Pinned
Catch Probability
@catchprobability.com
· Mar 17
I cannot get the exact fielder position. MLB does not make that publicly available so I use an estimate for these plays. So some probabilities are not accurate. If you have any suggestions contact me: @cory.catchprobability.com
Myles Straw lines out to left fielder Enrique Hernández.
Catch probability: 24%
Est. Distance Covered: 103.6 ft
Exit Velo: 81.5 mph
Launch Angle: 26 deg
Hit Distance: 289 ft
Catch probability: 24%
Est. Distance Covered: 103.6 ft
Exit Velo: 81.5 mph
Launch Angle: 26 deg
Hit Distance: 289 ft
October 25, 2025 at 1:40 AM
Myles Straw lines out to left fielder Enrique Hernández.
Catch probability: 24%
Est. Distance Covered: 103.6 ft
Exit Velo: 81.5 mph
Launch Angle: 26 deg
Hit Distance: 289 ft
Catch probability: 24%
Est. Distance Covered: 103.6 ft
Exit Velo: 81.5 mph
Launch Angle: 26 deg
Hit Distance: 289 ft
Jackson Chourio lines out sharply to left fielder Enrique Hernández.
Catch probability: 24%
Est. Distance Covered: 59.5 ft
Exit Velo: 111.0 mph
Launch Angle: 13 deg
Hit Distance: 319 ft
Catch probability: 24%
Est. Distance Covered: 59.5 ft
Exit Velo: 111.0 mph
Launch Angle: 13 deg
Hit Distance: 319 ft
October 15, 2025 at 1:40 AM
Jackson Chourio lines out sharply to left fielder Enrique Hernández.
Catch probability: 24%
Est. Distance Covered: 59.5 ft
Exit Velo: 111.0 mph
Launch Angle: 13 deg
Hit Distance: 319 ft
Catch probability: 24%
Est. Distance Covered: 59.5 ft
Exit Velo: 111.0 mph
Launch Angle: 13 deg
Hit Distance: 319 ft
Anthony Santander lines out to left fielder Randy Arozarena.
Catch probability: 24%
Est. Distance Covered: 59.1 ft
Exit Velo: 86.9 mph
Launch Angle: 17 deg
Hit Distance: 259 ft
Catch probability: 24%
Est. Distance Covered: 59.1 ft
Exit Velo: 86.9 mph
Launch Angle: 17 deg
Hit Distance: 259 ft
October 13, 2025 at 2:20 AM
Anthony Santander lines out to left fielder Randy Arozarena.
Catch probability: 24%
Est. Distance Covered: 59.1 ft
Exit Velo: 86.9 mph
Launch Angle: 17 deg
Hit Distance: 259 ft
Catch probability: 24%
Est. Distance Covered: 59.1 ft
Exit Velo: 86.9 mph
Launch Angle: 17 deg
Hit Distance: 259 ft
Seiya Suzuki lines out sharply to left fielder Jackson Chourio.
Catch probability: 27%
Est. Distance Covered: 91.3 ft
Exit Velo: 101.6 mph
Launch Angle: 20 deg
Hit Distance: 356 ft
Catch probability: 27%
Est. Distance Covered: 91.3 ft
Exit Velo: 101.6 mph
Launch Angle: 20 deg
Hit Distance: 356 ft
October 12, 2025 at 2:00 AM
Seiya Suzuki lines out sharply to left fielder Jackson Chourio.
Catch probability: 27%
Est. Distance Covered: 91.3 ft
Exit Velo: 101.6 mph
Launch Angle: 20 deg
Hit Distance: 356 ft
Catch probability: 27%
Est. Distance Covered: 91.3 ft
Exit Velo: 101.6 mph
Launch Angle: 20 deg
Hit Distance: 356 ft
Joey Ortiz lines out to right fielder Seiya Suzuki.
Catch probability: 20%
Est. Distance Covered: 51.7 ft
Exit Velo: 89.4 mph
Launch Angle: 16 deg
Hit Distance: 262 ft
Catch probability: 20%
Est. Distance Covered: 51.7 ft
Exit Velo: 89.4 mph
Launch Angle: 16 deg
Hit Distance: 262 ft
October 10, 2025 at 3:30 AM
Joey Ortiz lines out to right fielder Seiya Suzuki.
Catch probability: 20%
Est. Distance Covered: 51.7 ft
Exit Velo: 89.4 mph
Launch Angle: 16 deg
Hit Distance: 262 ft
Catch probability: 20%
Est. Distance Covered: 51.7 ft
Exit Velo: 89.4 mph
Launch Angle: 16 deg
Hit Distance: 262 ft
Tommy Edman lines out to left fielder Max Kepler.
Catch probability: 11%
Est. Distance Covered: 91.3 ft
Exit Velo: 98.5 mph
Launch Angle: 19 deg
Hit Distance: 337 ft
Catch probability: 11%
Est. Distance Covered: 91.3 ft
Exit Velo: 98.5 mph
Launch Angle: 19 deg
Hit Distance: 337 ft
October 9, 2025 at 10:40 PM
Tommy Edman lines out to left fielder Max Kepler.
Catch probability: 11%
Est. Distance Covered: 91.3 ft
Exit Velo: 98.5 mph
Launch Angle: 19 deg
Hit Distance: 337 ft
Catch probability: 11%
Est. Distance Covered: 91.3 ft
Exit Velo: 98.5 mph
Launch Angle: 19 deg
Hit Distance: 337 ft
Gleyber Torres lines out to left fielder Randy Arozarena.
Catch probability: 20%
Est. Distance Covered: 54.8 ft
Exit Velo: 93.5 mph
Launch Angle: 15 deg
Hit Distance: 266 ft
Catch probability: 20%
Est. Distance Covered: 54.8 ft
Exit Velo: 93.5 mph
Launch Angle: 15 deg
Hit Distance: 266 ft
October 5, 2025 at 3:30 AM
Gleyber Torres lines out to left fielder Randy Arozarena.
Catch probability: 20%
Est. Distance Covered: 54.8 ft
Exit Velo: 93.5 mph
Launch Angle: 15 deg
Hit Distance: 266 ft
Catch probability: 20%
Est. Distance Covered: 54.8 ft
Exit Velo: 93.5 mph
Launch Angle: 15 deg
Hit Distance: 266 ft
Ryan O'Hearn pops out to shortstop Dansby Swanson.
Catch probability: 28%
Est. Distance Covered: 61.7 ft
Exit Velo: 64.0 mph
Launch Angle: 27 deg
Hit Distance: 196 ft
Catch probability: 28%
Est. Distance Covered: 61.7 ft
Exit Velo: 64.0 mph
Launch Angle: 27 deg
Hit Distance: 196 ft
September 30, 2025 at 8:10 PM
Ryan O'Hearn pops out to shortstop Dansby Swanson.
Catch probability: 28%
Est. Distance Covered: 61.7 ft
Exit Velo: 64.0 mph
Launch Angle: 27 deg
Hit Distance: 196 ft
Catch probability: 28%
Est. Distance Covered: 61.7 ft
Exit Velo: 64.0 mph
Launch Angle: 27 deg
Hit Distance: 196 ft
Pete Alonso lines out sharply to left fielder Javier Sanoja.
Catch probability: 11%
Est. Distance Covered: 74.1 ft
Exit Velo: 115.9 mph
Launch Angle: 14 deg
Hit Distance: 348 ft
Catch probability: 11%
Est. Distance Covered: 74.1 ft
Exit Velo: 115.9 mph
Launch Angle: 14 deg
Hit Distance: 348 ft
September 28, 2025 at 8:51 PM
Pete Alonso lines out sharply to left fielder Javier Sanoja.
Catch probability: 11%
Est. Distance Covered: 74.1 ft
Exit Velo: 115.9 mph
Launch Angle: 14 deg
Hit Distance: 348 ft
Catch probability: 11%
Est. Distance Covered: 74.1 ft
Exit Velo: 115.9 mph
Launch Angle: 14 deg
Hit Distance: 348 ft
Danny Jansen lines out to left fielder Will Benson.
Catch probability: 28%
Est. Distance Covered: 64.3 ft
Exit Velo: 89.3 mph
Launch Angle: 19 deg
Hit Distance: 298 ft
Catch probability: 28%
Est. Distance Covered: 64.3 ft
Exit Velo: 89.3 mph
Launch Angle: 19 deg
Hit Distance: 298 ft
September 28, 2025 at 2:11 AM
Danny Jansen lines out to left fielder Will Benson.
Catch probability: 28%
Est. Distance Covered: 64.3 ft
Exit Velo: 89.3 mph
Launch Angle: 19 deg
Hit Distance: 298 ft
Catch probability: 28%
Est. Distance Covered: 64.3 ft
Exit Velo: 89.3 mph
Launch Angle: 19 deg
Hit Distance: 298 ft
David Hamilton lines out to shortstop Javier Báez.
Catch probability: 28%
Est. Distance Covered: 68.1 ft
Exit Velo: 58.0 mph
Launch Angle: 29 deg
Hit Distance: 172 ft
Catch probability: 28%
Est. Distance Covered: 68.1 ft
Exit Velo: 58.0 mph
Launch Angle: 29 deg
Hit Distance: 172 ft
September 27, 2025 at 8:51 PM
David Hamilton lines out to shortstop Javier Báez.
Catch probability: 28%
Est. Distance Covered: 68.1 ft
Exit Velo: 58.0 mph
Launch Angle: 29 deg
Hit Distance: 172 ft
Catch probability: 28%
Est. Distance Covered: 68.1 ft
Exit Velo: 58.0 mph
Launch Angle: 29 deg
Hit Distance: 172 ft
Jordan Beck lines out to left fielder Heliot Ramos.
Catch probability: 27%
Est. Distance Covered: 92.1 ft
Exit Velo: 81.0 mph
Launch Angle: 26 deg
Hit Distance: 290 ft
Catch probability: 27%
Est. Distance Covered: 92.1 ft
Exit Velo: 81.0 mph
Launch Angle: 26 deg
Hit Distance: 290 ft
September 27, 2025 at 8:20 PM
Jordan Beck lines out to left fielder Heliot Ramos.
Catch probability: 27%
Est. Distance Covered: 92.1 ft
Exit Velo: 81.0 mph
Launch Angle: 26 deg
Hit Distance: 290 ft
Catch probability: 27%
Est. Distance Covered: 92.1 ft
Exit Velo: 81.0 mph
Launch Angle: 26 deg
Hit Distance: 290 ft
Josh Lowe pops out to shortstop Andrés Giménez.
Catch probability: 22%
Est. Distance Covered: 74.6 ft
Exit Velo: 62.4 mph
Launch Angle: 28 deg
Hit Distance: 178 ft
Catch probability: 22%
Est. Distance Covered: 74.6 ft
Exit Velo: 62.4 mph
Launch Angle: 28 deg
Hit Distance: 178 ft
September 27, 2025 at 12:51 AM
Josh Lowe pops out to shortstop Andrés Giménez.
Catch probability: 22%
Est. Distance Covered: 74.6 ft
Exit Velo: 62.4 mph
Launch Angle: 28 deg
Hit Distance: 178 ft
Catch probability: 22%
Est. Distance Covered: 74.6 ft
Exit Velo: 62.4 mph
Launch Angle: 28 deg
Hit Distance: 178 ft
Romy Gonzalez lines out sharply to center fielder Parker Meadows.
Catch probability: 22%
Est. Distance Covered: 80.0 ft
Exit Velo: 109.5 mph
Launch Angle: 16 deg
Hit Distance: 359 ft
Catch probability: 22%
Est. Distance Covered: 80.0 ft
Exit Velo: 109.5 mph
Launch Angle: 16 deg
Hit Distance: 359 ft
September 27, 2025 at 12:31 AM
Romy Gonzalez lines out sharply to center fielder Parker Meadows.
Catch probability: 22%
Est. Distance Covered: 80.0 ft
Exit Velo: 109.5 mph
Launch Angle: 16 deg
Hit Distance: 359 ft
Catch probability: 22%
Est. Distance Covered: 80.0 ft
Exit Velo: 109.5 mph
Launch Angle: 16 deg
Hit Distance: 359 ft
Anthony Volpe lines out sharply to left fielder Dylan Beavers.
Catch probability: 23%
Est. Distance Covered: 109.2 ft
Exit Velo: 102.0 mph
Launch Angle: 22 deg
Hit Distance: 371 ft
Catch probability: 23%
Est. Distance Covered: 109.2 ft
Exit Velo: 102.0 mph
Launch Angle: 22 deg
Hit Distance: 371 ft
September 26, 2025 at 11:40 PM
Anthony Volpe lines out sharply to left fielder Dylan Beavers.
Catch probability: 23%
Est. Distance Covered: 109.2 ft
Exit Velo: 102.0 mph
Launch Angle: 22 deg
Hit Distance: 371 ft
Catch probability: 23%
Est. Distance Covered: 109.2 ft
Exit Velo: 102.0 mph
Launch Angle: 22 deg
Hit Distance: 371 ft
Miguel Vargas lines out sharply to left fielder Cody Bellinger.
Catch probability: 22%
Est. Distance Covered: 74.7 ft
Exit Velo: 108.5 mph
Launch Angle: 16 deg
Hit Distance: 338 ft
Catch probability: 22%
Est. Distance Covered: 74.7 ft
Exit Velo: 108.5 mph
Launch Angle: 16 deg
Hit Distance: 338 ft
September 26, 2025 at 1:51 AM
Miguel Vargas lines out sharply to left fielder Cody Bellinger.
Catch probability: 22%
Est. Distance Covered: 74.7 ft
Exit Velo: 108.5 mph
Launch Angle: 16 deg
Hit Distance: 338 ft
Catch probability: 22%
Est. Distance Covered: 74.7 ft
Exit Velo: 108.5 mph
Launch Angle: 16 deg
Hit Distance: 338 ft
Chase Meidroth lines out to left fielder Cody Bellinger.
Catch probability: 14%
Est. Distance Covered: 65.2 ft
Exit Velo: 91.8 mph
Launch Angle: 17 deg
Hit Distance: 267 ft
Catch probability: 14%
Est. Distance Covered: 65.2 ft
Exit Velo: 91.8 mph
Launch Angle: 17 deg
Hit Distance: 267 ft
September 26, 2025 at 12:31 AM
Chase Meidroth lines out to left fielder Cody Bellinger.
Catch probability: 14%
Est. Distance Covered: 65.2 ft
Exit Velo: 91.8 mph
Launch Angle: 17 deg
Hit Distance: 267 ft
Catch probability: 14%
Est. Distance Covered: 65.2 ft
Exit Velo: 91.8 mph
Launch Angle: 17 deg
Hit Distance: 267 ft
Ceddanne Rafaela lines out to right fielder Nathan Lukes.
Catch probability: 17%
Est. Distance Covered: 52.3 ft
Exit Velo: 96.9 mph
Launch Angle: 14 deg
Hit Distance: 258 ft
Catch probability: 17%
Est. Distance Covered: 52.3 ft
Exit Velo: 96.9 mph
Launch Angle: 14 deg
Hit Distance: 258 ft
September 26, 2025 at 12:21 AM
Ceddanne Rafaela lines out to right fielder Nathan Lukes.
Catch probability: 17%
Est. Distance Covered: 52.3 ft
Exit Velo: 96.9 mph
Launch Angle: 14 deg
Hit Distance: 258 ft
Catch probability: 17%
Est. Distance Covered: 52.3 ft
Exit Velo: 96.9 mph
Launch Angle: 14 deg
Hit Distance: 258 ft
Curtis Mead lines out to shortstop Anthony Volpe.
Catch probability: 12%
Est. Distance Covered: 61.7 ft
Exit Velo: 63.5 mph
Launch Angle: 22 deg
Hit Distance: 85 ft
Catch probability: 12%
Est. Distance Covered: 61.7 ft
Exit Velo: 63.5 mph
Launch Angle: 22 deg
Hit Distance: 85 ft
September 25, 2025 at 11:21 PM
Curtis Mead lines out to shortstop Anthony Volpe.
Catch probability: 12%
Est. Distance Covered: 61.7 ft
Exit Velo: 63.5 mph
Launch Angle: 22 deg
Hit Distance: 85 ft
Catch probability: 12%
Est. Distance Covered: 61.7 ft
Exit Velo: 63.5 mph
Launch Angle: 22 deg
Hit Distance: 85 ft
Austin Martin lines out sharply to left fielder Alejandro Osuna.
Catch probability: 13%
Est. Distance Covered: 104.6 ft
Exit Velo: 104.7 mph
Launch Angle: 19 deg
Hit Distance: 363 ft
Catch probability: 13%
Est. Distance Covered: 104.6 ft
Exit Velo: 104.7 mph
Launch Angle: 19 deg
Hit Distance: 363 ft
September 25, 2025 at 8:10 PM
Austin Martin lines out sharply to left fielder Alejandro Osuna.
Catch probability: 13%
Est. Distance Covered: 104.6 ft
Exit Velo: 104.7 mph
Launch Angle: 19 deg
Hit Distance: 363 ft
Catch probability: 13%
Est. Distance Covered: 104.6 ft
Exit Velo: 104.7 mph
Launch Angle: 19 deg
Hit Distance: 363 ft
Geraldo Perdomo lines out to left fielder Andy Pages.
Catch probability: 22%
Est. Distance Covered: 117.2 ft
Exit Velo: 98.6 mph
Launch Angle: 22 deg
Hit Distance: 370 ft
Catch probability: 22%
Est. Distance Covered: 117.2 ft
Exit Velo: 98.6 mph
Launch Angle: 22 deg
Hit Distance: 370 ft
September 25, 2025 at 2:41 AM
Geraldo Perdomo lines out to left fielder Andy Pages.
Catch probability: 22%
Est. Distance Covered: 117.2 ft
Exit Velo: 98.6 mph
Launch Angle: 22 deg
Hit Distance: 370 ft
Catch probability: 22%
Est. Distance Covered: 117.2 ft
Exit Velo: 98.6 mph
Launch Angle: 22 deg
Hit Distance: 370 ft
Xavier Edwards out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Nick Castellanos. Connor Norby scores.
Catch probability: 6%
Est. Distance Covered: 84.4 ft
Exit Velo: 101.5 mph
Launch Angle: 16 deg
Hit Distance: 304 ft
Catch probability: 6%
Est. Distance Covered: 84.4 ft
Exit Velo: 101.5 mph
Launch Angle: 16 deg
Hit Distance: 304 ft
September 24, 2025 at 3:21 AM
Xavier Edwards out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Nick Castellanos. Connor Norby scores.
Catch probability: 6%
Est. Distance Covered: 84.4 ft
Exit Velo: 101.5 mph
Launch Angle: 16 deg
Hit Distance: 304 ft
Catch probability: 6%
Est. Distance Covered: 84.4 ft
Exit Velo: 101.5 mph
Launch Angle: 16 deg
Hit Distance: 304 ft
Jeff McNeil lines out to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong.
Catch probability: 28%
Est. Distance Covered: 68.3 ft
Exit Velo: 77.6 mph
Launch Angle: 22 deg
Hit Distance: 260 ft
Catch probability: 28%
Est. Distance Covered: 68.3 ft
Exit Velo: 77.6 mph
Launch Angle: 22 deg
Hit Distance: 260 ft
September 24, 2025 at 2:21 AM
Jeff McNeil lines out to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong.
Catch probability: 28%
Est. Distance Covered: 68.3 ft
Exit Velo: 77.6 mph
Launch Angle: 22 deg
Hit Distance: 260 ft
Catch probability: 28%
Est. Distance Covered: 68.3 ft
Exit Velo: 77.6 mph
Launch Angle: 22 deg
Hit Distance: 260 ft
George Springer lines out to right fielder Wilyer Abreu.
Catch probability: 23%
Est. Distance Covered: 67.8 ft
Exit Velo: 77.5 mph
Launch Angle: 21 deg
Hit Distance: 231 ft
Catch probability: 23%
Est. Distance Covered: 67.8 ft
Exit Velo: 77.5 mph
Launch Angle: 21 deg
Hit Distance: 231 ft
September 24, 2025 at 1:20 AM
George Springer lines out to right fielder Wilyer Abreu.
Catch probability: 23%
Est. Distance Covered: 67.8 ft
Exit Velo: 77.5 mph
Launch Angle: 21 deg
Hit Distance: 231 ft
Catch probability: 23%
Est. Distance Covered: 67.8 ft
Exit Velo: 77.5 mph
Launch Angle: 21 deg
Hit Distance: 231 ft
Gavin Sheets lines out to center fielder Blake Perkins.
Catch probability: 22%
Est. Distance Covered: 70.8 ft
Exit Velo: 101.8 mph
Launch Angle: 17 deg
Hit Distance: 365 ft
Catch probability: 22%
Est. Distance Covered: 70.8 ft
Exit Velo: 101.8 mph
Launch Angle: 17 deg
Hit Distance: 365 ft
September 23, 2025 at 4:20 AM
Gavin Sheets lines out to center fielder Blake Perkins.
Catch probability: 22%
Est. Distance Covered: 70.8 ft
Exit Velo: 101.8 mph
Launch Angle: 17 deg
Hit Distance: 365 ft
Catch probability: 22%
Est. Distance Covered: 70.8 ft
Exit Velo: 101.8 mph
Launch Angle: 17 deg
Hit Distance: 365 ft