When offset projects burn, they affect the long-term sustainability of California’s cap-and-trade program, which partly depends on forest offsets to meet its climate goals. We track the impact of fire on California’s offset program in order to make these risks more transparent to the public. (3/3)

Much of eastern Washington is under a Red Flag Warning, which means hot and dry conditions that are conducive for rapid fire growth. This same project has burned multiple times over the past five years, including major fires in 2015, 2019, 2020, and 2021. (2/3)

California has plenty of policy priorities that desperately need funding — think firefighting or energy affordability. Lawmakers can unlock a big pool of money for things that actually benefit Californians and the climate. It’s time to retire offsets for good. (7/7)

We argue California is getting a raw deal — millions in lost revenue and not much in return. And that’s to say nothing about how offsets affect fenceline communities that do not benefit from emission reductions that take place somewhere else. (6/7)

Second, the majority of offsets in California’s program are from forests, and as we and others have shown, many of these offsets do not reflect real climate benefits. doi.org/10.1111/gcb.... (5/7)

We get those numbers from careful modeling work done by @rff.org . Their model accounts for the dynamics of supply and demand, with and without offsets. www.rff.org/publications... (4/7)

First, offsets lower the demand for pollution allowances auctioned by the state. Lower demand means lower prices, which costs California hundreds of millions of dollars in auction revenue. (3/7)

Offsets are in the news because California’s cap and trade program is up for renewal. Our commentary draws together two lines of evidence to argue that California should do away with offsets altogether. (2/7)

Second, the majority of offsets in California’s program are from forests, and as we and others have shown, many of these offsets do not reflect real climate benefits. doi.org/10.1111/gcb.... (5/7)

We get those numbers from careful modeling work done by @rff.org. Their model accounts for the dynamics of supply and demand, with and without offsets. www.rff.org/publications... (4/7)

First, offsets lower the demand for pollution allowances auctioned by the state. Lower demand means lower prices, which costs California hundreds of millions of dollars in auction revenue. (3/7)

Offsets are in the news because California’s cap and trade program is up for renewal. Our commentary draws together two lines of evidence to argue that California should do away with offsets altogether. (2/7)

Another bad fire year could spell trouble for California’s offset program. It comes with a sort of insurance system to replace trees lost to fire. But our research shows this “buffer pool” is inadequate. Wildfire has already burned through 40% of reserves. 🧪
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

Our tracker tool shows where wildfires are currently burning in the United States, and how those fires affect offsets registered with California’s forest offset program. 🧪https://carbonplan.org/research/forest-offsets-fires

If you’re working on DOR, OAE, or just curious about marine CDR, we hope these tools and the underlying data help build shared intuition and a better foundation for standards, accounting, and deployment decisions.

carbonplan.org/research/mcd...