This is based on the last IPCC report (projections from models), It doesn't take into account that the Arctic may be warming faster due to the fact that we have cleaned up the aerosols in the air. A recent study suggested the first ice free *day* may be as early as 2027, an ice free month by 2030.

CANARI scientists from @ukceh.bsky.social have created UK river flow stripes.

High flows are rising in the north/west and drought risk growing in parts of the south/east. Adaptation is needed to reduce impacts from swings between wet/dry.

🔗 climatelabbook.substack.com/p/visualisin...

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Stripes for ocean acidification, air quality, and biodiversity loss reveal alarming trends.

CANARI aims to better understand North Atlantic atmospheric and oceanic circulation and how they may shift in the future.

🔗https://oceanacidificationstripes.info/s/ph/basin/globalocean/entirebasin

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The stripes tell the story of how our climate has changed and it's not just warming at the surface. Temperatures are changing for the rest of the atmosphere and the ocean too 🌍

🔗https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/106/5/BAMS-D-24-0212.1.xml

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This study was supported by the CANARI project and was a collaboration between @ukceh.bsky.social @noc.ac.uk, @ncas-uk.bsky.social and @ecmwf.int

The study reveals a teleconnection pathway linking North Atlantic sea surface temperature patterns, associated with freshwater inflows into the subpolar region, to shifts in the North Atlantic Current and jet stream, and reduction in UK precipitation and river flows at long lead times