In my new op-ed for @conservativehome.bsky.social , I use our exclusive @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social polling to explore the fundamental question facing the Conservatives: is the problem the leader or the party's brand? Our data shows the public isn't enthusiastic about any potential replacements.

💥NEW Keir Starmer's satisfaction has fallen to -54 with @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social

💥That's worse than scores EVER achieved by Johnson, May, Cameron or Blair

💥Hitting this low is usually terminal for a PM e.g. Sunak, Truss and Thatcher were all shortly out of office

Big jumps in just six months from @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social
on numbers who think Starmer and Badenoch won't be leading their parties at next election...

❌Unlikely Starmer leads Lab: 43% (+14pts)
❌Unlikely Badenoch leads Cons: 49% (+11pts)

Fortunately, for the PM he’s not boxed in when it comes to next steps.

The public support a range of measures...

Net support:
Trade deal +39
Retaliatory tariffs +29
Wait and see +24

... but don't want to be seen as weak

Ruling out tariffs -18 (5/6)

Was all the schmoozing worth it? 🤷

The proportion of Britons saying there isn’t a “special relationship” with the US has doubled in one year.

Just three in ten (30%) agree there is a special relationship – a 17 point drop from a year ago. (4/6)

And who’ll be to blame?

They’re most likely to say Trump has handled tariffs badly (and that’s before the u-turn)

But Starmer hasn’t earned resounding public confidence in his own handling yet - more say he's done a bad than good job (3/6)

First, the obvious: Brits aren’t keen on tariffs.

They’re bracing themselves for potentially serious economic pain.

Two in three think tariffs will have a negative impact on the:
💂‍♂️UK economy (66%)
🌎Global economy (68%)

... and our relationship with the US (63%) (2/6)