The climate fight goes on, and the political maneuvers of the last week reinforce some very smart strategic thinking by @evergreenaction.bsky.social and @rewiringamerica.bsky.social folks (and many others) to ensure that IRA investments flowed into Republican districts.

Absolutely worth noting here that this Big Ugly Bill is still devastating for the climate (see REPEAT Project analysis showing that the Senate bill will effectively halve progress from the IRA by 2035). Nonetheless, we are not starting from square one, even with this monstrosity passed.

Assuming there were 47 Republican yes votes regardless of the substance of the bill (a fairly safe assumption), Murkowski’s willingness to negotiate with leadership likely prevented some of the original Senate bill’s worst provisions from making it into the final text.

While technically Murkowski was the deciding vote on Senate passage, it is important to note that Rand Paul (who voted no on the bill) clearly expressed a willingness to vote yes with stricter cuts to healthcare and IRA rollbacks.

These efforts were successful. While the amendment was never voted on, both of these changes made it into the final bill text which passed the Senate Tuesday morning (and just passed the House).

HOWEVER, on Monday night, Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), spearheaded an amendment to eliminate the excise tax, and establish a year long “safe harbor” to ensure wind and solar projects that begin construction in the next year qualify for the PTC regardless of whether they are “energized.”

The bill would’ve required all wind and solar projects taking advantage of the PTC to be placed in service by 2027, greatly reducing the value of the credit since developers cannot easily predict interconnection wait times which would determine eligibility.

In addition, the bill would have effectively eliminated a foundational premise of renewable energy financing in the U.S. - the reliability of the Production Tax Credit (PTC) which greatly reduces costs associated with solar and wind projects (to the tune of 30%+).

Since the domestic solar and wind manufacturing industry is at a very early stage, this would’ve effectively crushed demand for projects by eliminating one of their primary advantage over fossil fuel electricity generation: cheap components. Costs would’ve increased in the ballpark of 20-30%.

Tucked in the 900+ page legislation, was an excise tax provision that would’ve levied a penalty on all solar and wind projects tied to the quantity of materials sourced from companies tied to China and other countries designated as “adversaries.”

On Monday, Senate Republicans were poised to pass Trump’s megabill, which in addition to eviscerating the social safety net and ballooning the deficit, was poised to effectively destroy the renewable energy industry in the U.S. as we know it.