C-Note
@c-note-balz.bsky.social
American centrist independent, PhD biochemist, secular Buddhist, history, geopolitics, economics enthusiast, anti-authoritarian, anti-isolationist, pro-Ukraine 🇺🇦, pro-Taiwan 🇹🇼, pro-independent Hong Kong, Tibet, and East Turkestan, pro-EU 🇪🇺, pro-NATO
Jake would never disrespect himself like that!
August 3, 2025 at 3:03 AM
Jake would never disrespect himself like that!
Yeah, who is this creamy? Sounds like a real douche!
August 3, 2025 at 3:01 AM
Yeah, who is this creamy? Sounds like a real douche!
What are the other versions?
July 7, 2025 at 3:52 PM
What are the other versions?
This one's a classic! I saw it a few months ago, and it recently resurfaced. That well is tainted for sure.
June 30, 2025 at 11:29 PM
This one's a classic! I saw it a few months ago, and it recently resurfaced. That well is tainted for sure.
If you think MS software is a danger, its dangers pale in comparison to "open source" Chinese software. Please beware!
June 29, 2025 at 6:56 PM
If you think MS software is a danger, its dangers pale in comparison to "open source" Chinese software. Please beware!
Putin must be hoping for a dramatic change in military or political dynamics that favors him.
For Ukrainians and their Western supporters, we need to ensure no such change happens by maintaining and increasing resolve and military and humanitarian support for Ukraine. Слава Украïнi! 🇺🇦 6/6
For Ukrainians and their Western supporters, we need to ensure no such change happens by maintaining and increasing resolve and military and humanitarian support for Ukraine. Слава Украïнi! 🇺🇦 6/6
June 29, 2025 at 6:32 PM
Putin must be hoping for a dramatic change in military or political dynamics that favors him.
For Ukrainians and their Western supporters, we need to ensure no such change happens by maintaining and increasing resolve and military and humanitarian support for Ukraine. Слава Украïнi! 🇺🇦 6/6
For Ukrainians and their Western supporters, we need to ensure no such change happens by maintaining and increasing resolve and military and humanitarian support for Ukraine. Слава Украïнi! 🇺🇦 6/6
In summary, even Russia's minimal territorial goals are almost certainly unachievable because a) Kherson and Zaporizhzhia west of the Dnieper are essentially unconquerable at any cost, b) land west of the Dnieper aside, it is doubtful whether Russia can sustain this pace until Feb-Oct 2028. 5/
June 29, 2025 at 6:27 PM
In summary, even Russia's minimal territorial goals are almost certainly unachievable because a) Kherson and Zaporizhzhia west of the Dnieper are essentially unconquerable at any cost, b) land west of the Dnieper aside, it is doubtful whether Russia can sustain this pace until Feb-Oct 2028. 5/
Calculating similarly, Russia taking all of Ukraine east of the Dnieper (Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, Poltava, and the portions of Dnipropetrovsk, Cherkasy, Kyiv, and Kyiv city east of the Dnieper) would require 30-39 years and 10.5-22.6 million casualties. 4/
June 29, 2025 at 6:18 PM
Calculating similarly, Russia taking all of Ukraine east of the Dnieper (Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, Poltava, and the portions of Dnipropetrovsk, Cherkasy, Kyiv, and Kyiv city east of the Dnieper) would require 30-39 years and 10.5-22.6 million casualties. 4/
...31-39 months at a cost of 893,000-1,928,000 casualties, making simplifying assumptions (that are almost certainly not be true) about optimal directionality of gains and equal rates of progress over urban vs. rural terrain. 3/
June 29, 2025 at 6:13 PM
...31-39 months at a cost of 893,000-1,928,000 casualties, making simplifying assumptions (that are almost certainly not be true) about optimal directionality of gains and equal rates of progress over urban vs. rural terrain. 3/
2) While the portions of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts west of the Dnieper are likely out of reach of Russia due to geography, at the past 15 months' average rates, the remaining 0.6% of Luhansk, 30.5% of Donetsk, and 21.8% of Zaporizhzhia east of the Dnieper could be taken in... 2/
June 29, 2025 at 6:08 PM
2) While the portions of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts west of the Dnieper are likely out of reach of Russia due to geography, at the past 15 months' average rates, the remaining 0.6% of Luhansk, 30.5% of Donetsk, and 21.8% of Zaporizhzhia east of the Dnieper could be taken in... 2/
Murrieta, California, US
June 25, 2025 at 3:21 PM
Murrieta, California, US
Who buys these things?
June 25, 2025 at 3:18 PM
Who buys these things?
This city and this nation are waking up to the danger that a President who disregards the rule of law and governs like a dictator poses to everything that makes this country great!
For clarification, although we are in California, we are in a red county with 2 MAGA Representatives. 2/
For clarification, although we are in California, we are in a red county with 2 MAGA Representatives. 2/
June 15, 2025 at 2:46 AM
This city and this nation are waking up to the danger that a President who disregards the rule of law and governs like a dictator poses to everything that makes this country great!
For clarification, although we are in California, we are in a red county with 2 MAGA Representatives. 2/
For clarification, although we are in California, we are in a red county with 2 MAGA Representatives. 2/
You nailed the analysis, Vlad!
June 11, 2025 at 10:08 PM
You nailed the analysis, Vlad!