Heather Long
@byheatherlong.bsky.social
Economic columnist at Washington Post | Data aficionado | Email: Heather.long@washpost.com
44% of Americans now believe they will be WORSE OFF financially in a year (due mainly to Trump's tariffs)
We've never seen anything like this before. Not even in the Great Recession or stagflation era (31% thought they would be worse off in 1 yr in early 1980)
via Uof Michigan Survey of Consumers
We've never seen anything like this before. Not even in the Great Recession or stagflation era (31% thought they would be worse off in 1 yr in early 1980)
via Uof Michigan Survey of Consumers
April 25, 2025 at 3:56 PM
44% of Americans now believe they will be WORSE OFF financially in a year (due mainly to Trump's tariffs)
We've never seen anything like this before. Not even in the Great Recession or stagflation era (31% thought they would be worse off in 1 yr in early 1980)
via Uof Michigan Survey of Consumers
We've never seen anything like this before. Not even in the Great Recession or stagflation era (31% thought they would be worse off in 1 yr in early 1980)
via Uof Michigan Survey of Consumers
Fed Chair Powell key takeaways:
1) Recession risk "has moved up, but it’s not high."
2) Don't expect May rate cut. "We’re not going to be in any hurry to move"
3) "Uncertainty is remarkably high" he says over and over
4) Fed is watching big drop in sentiment, but "the hard data are pretty solid"
1) Recession risk "has moved up, but it’s not high."
2) Don't expect May rate cut. "We’re not going to be in any hurry to move"
3) "Uncertainty is remarkably high" he says over and over
4) Fed is watching big drop in sentiment, but "the hard data are pretty solid"
March 19, 2025 at 7:15 PM
Fed Chair Powell key takeaways:
1) Recession risk "has moved up, but it’s not high."
2) Don't expect May rate cut. "We’re not going to be in any hurry to move"
3) "Uncertainty is remarkably high" he says over and over
4) Fed is watching big drop in sentiment, but "the hard data are pretty solid"
1) Recession risk "has moved up, but it’s not high."
2) Don't expect May rate cut. "We’re not going to be in any hurry to move"
3) "Uncertainty is remarkably high" he says over and over
4) Fed is watching big drop in sentiment, but "the hard data are pretty solid"
Big congrats to @kedseconomist.com on the launch of her great new podcast "Optimist Economy."
Kathryn doesn't just talk about problems; She puts forward ideas to solve them.
Her work is inspiring and I always leave w/new takeaways
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/o...
Kathryn doesn't just talk about problems; She puts forward ideas to solve them.
Her work is inspiring and I always leave w/new takeaways
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/o...
March 18, 2025 at 8:51 PM
Big congrats to @kedseconomist.com on the launch of her great new podcast "Optimist Economy."
Kathryn doesn't just talk about problems; She puts forward ideas to solve them.
Her work is inspiring and I always leave w/new takeaways
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/o...
Kathryn doesn't just talk about problems; She puts forward ideas to solve them.
Her work is inspiring and I always leave w/new takeaways
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/o...
Must read from reporting today from @crampell.bsky.social & @ashendruk.com
How Trump is reshaping reality by hiding data
"The Trump administration is deleting taxpayer-funded data — information that Americans use to make sense of the world."
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/int...
How Trump is reshaping reality by hiding data
"The Trump administration is deleting taxpayer-funded data — information that Americans use to make sense of the world."
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/int...
March 11, 2025 at 2:29 PM
Must read from reporting today from @crampell.bsky.social & @ashendruk.com
How Trump is reshaping reality by hiding data
"The Trump administration is deleting taxpayer-funded data — information that Americans use to make sense of the world."
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/int...
How Trump is reshaping reality by hiding data
"The Trump administration is deleting taxpayer-funded data — information that Americans use to make sense of the world."
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/int...
NEWS: I'm excited to announce that I'll be interviewing Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Friday, April 4 at 11:25am alongside
James Nelson at the #SABEW25 conference.
There's much to discuss!
Join us at this great event for business and economic journalists, journalism students and PR professionals.
James Nelson at the #SABEW25 conference.
There's much to discuss!
Join us at this great event for business and economic journalists, journalism students and PR professionals.
March 10, 2025 at 6:38 PM
NEWS: I'm excited to announce that I'll be interviewing Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Friday, April 4 at 11:25am alongside
James Nelson at the #SABEW25 conference.
There's much to discuss!
Join us at this great event for business and economic journalists, journalism students and PR professionals.
James Nelson at the #SABEW25 conference.
There's much to discuss!
Join us at this great event for business and economic journalists, journalism students and PR professionals.
Most on this site know that federal workers are good people who work hard.
But it's striking to see the data.
Federal workers put in more hours a week than anyone except military and self-employed.
Federal workers take fewer days off than almost any others
www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
But it's striking to see the data.
Federal workers put in more hours a week than anyone except military and self-employed.
Federal workers take fewer days off than almost any others
www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
February 24, 2025 at 3:21 PM
Most on this site know that federal workers are good people who work hard.
But it's striking to see the data.
Federal workers put in more hours a week than anyone except military and self-employed.
Federal workers take fewer days off than almost any others
www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
But it's striking to see the data.
Federal workers put in more hours a week than anyone except military and self-employed.
Federal workers take fewer days off than almost any others
www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
Take a look at this chart.
We've been experiencing what I call "whack-a-mole" inflation. There have been many eye-popping spikes (i.e. eggs). This has a deep psychological impact. They fear what will spike next.
This backdrop makes Trump's tariffs even worse
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
We've been experiencing what I call "whack-a-mole" inflation. There have been many eye-popping spikes (i.e. eggs). This has a deep psychological impact. They fear what will spike next.
This backdrop makes Trump's tariffs even worse
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
February 14, 2025 at 3:43 PM
Take a look at this chart.
We've been experiencing what I call "whack-a-mole" inflation. There have been many eye-popping spikes (i.e. eggs). This has a deep psychological impact. They fear what will spike next.
This backdrop makes Trump's tariffs even worse
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
We've been experiencing what I call "whack-a-mole" inflation. There have been many eye-popping spikes (i.e. eggs). This has a deep psychological impact. They fear what will spike next.
This backdrop makes Trump's tariffs even worse
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
You can really see the high monthly inflation gain in January (0.5%) on the bar chart. [Forecasts were for just a 0.3% gain]
Why?
-Gas prices up
-Energy/utility prices up
-Food prices (esp. groceries) up
-Transportation costs up
-Rent still rising (albeit much more slowly now)
Why?
-Gas prices up
-Energy/utility prices up
-Food prices (esp. groceries) up
-Transportation costs up
-Rent still rising (albeit much more slowly now)
February 12, 2025 at 1:47 PM
You can really see the high monthly inflation gain in January (0.5%) on the bar chart. [Forecasts were for just a 0.3% gain]
Why?
-Gas prices up
-Energy/utility prices up
-Food prices (esp. groceries) up
-Transportation costs up
-Rent still rising (albeit much more slowly now)
Why?
-Gas prices up
-Energy/utility prices up
-Food prices (esp. groceries) up
-Transportation costs up
-Rent still rising (albeit much more slowly now)
JUST IN: Inflation ticked back up to 3% (y/y) in January --> the highest since June. The monthly gain was 0.5% (above expectations).
Rent made up 30% of the increase. Gas and food also contributed.
"Core CPI," which excludes food and gas, rose 3.3%. Core CPI has basically stalled since June.
Rent made up 30% of the increase. Gas and food also contributed.
"Core CPI," which excludes food and gas, rose 3.3%. Core CPI has basically stalled since June.
February 12, 2025 at 1:39 PM
JUST IN: Inflation ticked back up to 3% (y/y) in January --> the highest since June. The monthly gain was 0.5% (above expectations).
Rent made up 30% of the increase. Gas and food also contributed.
"Core CPI," which excludes food and gas, rose 3.3%. Core CPI has basically stalled since June.
Rent made up 30% of the increase. Gas and food also contributed.
"Core CPI," which excludes food and gas, rose 3.3%. Core CPI has basically stalled since June.
President Trump's trade war is here.
Trump said Friday there is nothing Canada, Mexico and China can do to stop it.
1) Tariffs will be enacted on Feb. 1
2) Tariffs on oil and gas by Feb. 18
3) Oil tariff could be 10%
4) He said there "absolutely" will be tariffs on Europe, too.
Trump said Friday there is nothing Canada, Mexico and China can do to stop it.
1) Tariffs will be enacted on Feb. 1
2) Tariffs on oil and gas by Feb. 18
3) Oil tariff could be 10%
4) He said there "absolutely" will be tariffs on Europe, too.
January 31, 2025 at 9:59 PM
President Trump's trade war is here.
Trump said Friday there is nothing Canada, Mexico and China can do to stop it.
1) Tariffs will be enacted on Feb. 1
2) Tariffs on oil and gas by Feb. 18
3) Oil tariff could be 10%
4) He said there "absolutely" will be tariffs on Europe, too.
Trump said Friday there is nothing Canada, Mexico and China can do to stop it.
1) Tariffs will be enacted on Feb. 1
2) Tariffs on oil and gas by Feb. 18
3) Oil tariff could be 10%
4) He said there "absolutely" will be tariffs on Europe, too.
This is alarming: The highest career official at Treasury is leaving after a clash w/Elon Musk allies over access to sensitive payment systems.
Those payment systems distribute ~$6 trillion in US gov't payments.
Only a few people are supposed to have access to that payment system.
Those payment systems distribute ~$6 trillion in US gov't payments.
Only a few people are supposed to have access to that payment system.
January 31, 2025 at 4:27 PM
This is alarming: The highest career official at Treasury is leaving after a clash w/Elon Musk allies over access to sensitive payment systems.
Those payment systems distribute ~$6 trillion in US gov't payments.
Only a few people are supposed to have access to that payment system.
Those payment systems distribute ~$6 trillion in US gov't payments.
Only a few people are supposed to have access to that payment system.
Just In: Progress on inflation is stalling.
PCE inflation was up 2.6% in 2024. PCE excluding food and energy was up 2.8%. Both metrics have risen slightly since the summer.
Now President Trump is about to add tariffs on Mexico and Canada that will almost certainly raise prices.
PCE inflation was up 2.6% in 2024. PCE excluding food and energy was up 2.8%. Both metrics have risen slightly since the summer.
Now President Trump is about to add tariffs on Mexico and Canada that will almost certainly raise prices.
January 31, 2025 at 1:41 PM
Just In: Progress on inflation is stalling.
PCE inflation was up 2.6% in 2024. PCE excluding food and energy was up 2.8%. Both metrics have risen slightly since the summer.
Now President Trump is about to add tariffs on Mexico and Canada that will almost certainly raise prices.
PCE inflation was up 2.6% in 2024. PCE excluding food and energy was up 2.8%. Both metrics have risen slightly since the summer.
Now President Trump is about to add tariffs on Mexico and Canada that will almost certainly raise prices.
Wow. Look at the big surge in Americans buying "durable goods" in Q4 2024.
Was that people trying to get ahead of tariffs??
We heard many anecdotes about that happening, but it's striking to see a 12.1% surge in durable goods in Q4.
Was that people trying to get ahead of tariffs??
We heard many anecdotes about that happening, but it's striking to see a 12.1% surge in durable goods in Q4.
January 30, 2025 at 1:47 PM
Wow. Look at the big surge in Americans buying "durable goods" in Q4 2024.
Was that people trying to get ahead of tariffs??
We heard many anecdotes about that happening, but it's striking to see a 12.1% surge in durable goods in Q4.
Was that people trying to get ahead of tariffs??
We heard many anecdotes about that happening, but it's striking to see a 12.1% surge in durable goods in Q4.
Here's the deeper dive on Q4 GDP growth:
US consumer spending is driving almost all the growth. Gov't is a very small contributor now.
Note: Biz investment was a drag on Q4 GDP (due to a big decline in equipment purchases). We want to see this pick up in 2025.
US consumer spending is driving almost all the growth. Gov't is a very small contributor now.
Note: Biz investment was a drag on Q4 GDP (due to a big decline in equipment purchases). We want to see this pick up in 2025.
January 30, 2025 at 1:44 PM
Here's the deeper dive on Q4 GDP growth:
US consumer spending is driving almost all the growth. Gov't is a very small contributor now.
Note: Biz investment was a drag on Q4 GDP (due to a big decline in equipment purchases). We want to see this pick up in 2025.
US consumer spending is driving almost all the growth. Gov't is a very small contributor now.
Note: Biz investment was a drag on Q4 GDP (due to a big decline in equipment purchases). We want to see this pick up in 2025.
Just in: The US economy grew 2.8% in 2024, another year of strong growth.
President Trump inherited a very good economy.
Q4 growth was 2.3%, driven mainly by strong consumer spending.
GDP growth under Biden (adj. for inflation)
6.1% in 2021
2.5% in 2022
2.9% in 2023
2.8% in 2024
President Trump inherited a very good economy.
Q4 growth was 2.3%, driven mainly by strong consumer spending.
GDP growth under Biden (adj. for inflation)
6.1% in 2021
2.5% in 2022
2.9% in 2023
2.8% in 2024
January 30, 2025 at 1:35 PM
Just in: The US economy grew 2.8% in 2024, another year of strong growth.
President Trump inherited a very good economy.
Q4 growth was 2.3%, driven mainly by strong consumer spending.
GDP growth under Biden (adj. for inflation)
6.1% in 2021
2.5% in 2022
2.9% in 2023
2.8% in 2024
President Trump inherited a very good economy.
Q4 growth was 2.3%, driven mainly by strong consumer spending.
GDP growth under Biden (adj. for inflation)
6.1% in 2021
2.5% in 2022
2.9% in 2023
2.8% in 2024
NEWS: Fed Chair Powell says he has "had no contact" with President Trump.
[Remember in Davos last week Trump demanded that interest rates should decline in the US -- and around the world ]
[Remember in Davos last week Trump demanded that interest rates should decline in the US -- and around the world ]
January 29, 2025 at 7:39 PM
NEWS: Fed Chair Powell says he has "had no contact" with President Trump.
[Remember in Davos last week Trump demanded that interest rates should decline in the US -- and around the world ]
[Remember in Davos last week Trump demanded that interest rates should decline in the US -- and around the world ]
Must read by @crampell.bsky.social today:
"Americans are watching an inflation bait-and-switch"
Trump promised to bring down prices on Day 1
"A week into office, he has offered zero plans to do so," Rampell says. "Worse, he has undertaken a litany of measures that would raise the cost of living."
"Americans are watching an inflation bait-and-switch"
Trump promised to bring down prices on Day 1
"A week into office, he has offered zero plans to do so," Rampell says. "Worse, he has undertaken a litany of measures that would raise the cost of living."
January 28, 2025 at 3:31 PM
Must read by @crampell.bsky.social today:
"Americans are watching an inflation bait-and-switch"
Trump promised to bring down prices on Day 1
"A week into office, he has offered zero plans to do so," Rampell says. "Worse, he has undertaken a litany of measures that would raise the cost of living."
"Americans are watching an inflation bait-and-switch"
Trump promised to bring down prices on Day 1
"A week into office, he has offered zero plans to do so," Rampell says. "Worse, he has undertaken a litany of measures that would raise the cost of living."
What a chart...
The US share of single moms (19%) is actually pretty similar to many other advanced economy nations.
What is different? = US child poverty (20%) is way higher than other nations.
From @andrewvandam.bsky.social
www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
The US share of single moms (19%) is actually pretty similar to many other advanced economy nations.
What is different? = US child poverty (20%) is way higher than other nations.
From @andrewvandam.bsky.social
www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
January 27, 2025 at 3:35 PM
What a chart...
The US share of single moms (19%) is actually pretty similar to many other advanced economy nations.
What is different? = US child poverty (20%) is way higher than other nations.
From @andrewvandam.bsky.social
www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
The US share of single moms (19%) is actually pretty similar to many other advanced economy nations.
What is different? = US child poverty (20%) is way higher than other nations.
From @andrewvandam.bsky.social
www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
Full column here: In the ‘Great Stay’ economy, Americans feel stuck
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
January 23, 2025 at 3:01 PM
Full column here: In the ‘Great Stay’ economy, Americans feel stuck
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
NEW: In the ‘Great Stay’ economy, Americans feel stuck
Hiring right now is anemic (esp. outside healthcare & gov)
People aren't moving
Promotions and bonuses are down
People even keep cars for record time
People feel cemented in place. That's tough if you don't like your current job or home.
Hiring right now is anemic (esp. outside healthcare & gov)
People aren't moving
Promotions and bonuses are down
People even keep cars for record time
People feel cemented in place. That's tough if you don't like your current job or home.
January 23, 2025 at 3:01 PM
NEW: In the ‘Great Stay’ economy, Americans feel stuck
Hiring right now is anemic (esp. outside healthcare & gov)
People aren't moving
Promotions and bonuses are down
People even keep cars for record time
People feel cemented in place. That's tough if you don't like your current job or home.
Hiring right now is anemic (esp. outside healthcare & gov)
People aren't moving
Promotions and bonuses are down
People even keep cars for record time
People feel cemented in place. That's tough if you don't like your current job or home.
It's official: The 30-year mortgage rate is back above 7%
for the first time since May.
Freddic Mac says the average rate is 7.04%
This is one of the least affordable times to buy a home in the past 40 years. It's a big problem for the US, esp. Millennials and Gen Z.
for the first time since May.
Freddic Mac says the average rate is 7.04%
This is one of the least affordable times to buy a home in the past 40 years. It's a big problem for the US, esp. Millennials and Gen Z.
January 16, 2025 at 6:09 PM
It's official: The 30-year mortgage rate is back above 7%
for the first time since May.
Freddic Mac says the average rate is 7.04%
This is one of the least affordable times to buy a home in the past 40 years. It's a big problem for the US, esp. Millennials and Gen Z.
for the first time since May.
Freddic Mac says the average rate is 7.04%
This is one of the least affordable times to buy a home in the past 40 years. It's a big problem for the US, esp. Millennials and Gen Z.
Inflation is back near 3% (it was 2.9% in December).
The Fed's goal = 2%
"Core inflation" down in December, but that's not much comfort to the middle class.
Bottom line: It's going to be a battle in 2025 to get inflation fully gone. This is a warning to Trump as he readies tariffs and big tax cuts
The Fed's goal = 2%
"Core inflation" down in December, but that's not much comfort to the middle class.
Bottom line: It's going to be a battle in 2025 to get inflation fully gone. This is a warning to Trump as he readies tariffs and big tax cuts
January 15, 2025 at 1:42 PM
Inflation is back near 3% (it was 2.9% in December).
The Fed's goal = 2%
"Core inflation" down in December, but that's not much comfort to the middle class.
Bottom line: It's going to be a battle in 2025 to get inflation fully gone. This is a warning to Trump as he readies tariffs and big tax cuts
The Fed's goal = 2%
"Core inflation" down in December, but that's not much comfort to the middle class.
Bottom line: It's going to be a battle in 2025 to get inflation fully gone. This is a warning to Trump as he readies tariffs and big tax cuts
JUST IN: Inflation remains stubborn. Inflation rose 2.9% (y/y) in December —> the highest annual increase since July.
For the month of December alone, inflation rose 0.4% —> the highest since March. Energy (esp. gas) accounted for 40% of the increase. Food also up.
Core CPI rose 3.2% (y/y).
For the month of December alone, inflation rose 0.4% —> the highest since March. Energy (esp. gas) accounted for 40% of the increase. Food also up.
Core CPI rose 3.2% (y/y).
January 15, 2025 at 1:37 PM
JUST IN: Inflation remains stubborn. Inflation rose 2.9% (y/y) in December —> the highest annual increase since July.
For the month of December alone, inflation rose 0.4% —> the highest since March. Energy (esp. gas) accounted for 40% of the increase. Food also up.
Core CPI rose 3.2% (y/y).
For the month of December alone, inflation rose 0.4% —> the highest since March. Energy (esp. gas) accounted for 40% of the increase. Food also up.
Core CPI rose 3.2% (y/y).
Trump wants to create an "External Revenue Service" to collect tariffs. This is clever marketing, but it doesn't change the fact that American consumers will end up paying these higher tariffs.
(Note: US Customs and Border Protection currently collects tariffs and duties as goods enter the USA).
(Note: US Customs and Border Protection currently collects tariffs and duties as goods enter the USA).
January 14, 2025 at 5:01 PM
Trump wants to create an "External Revenue Service" to collect tariffs. This is clever marketing, but it doesn't change the fact that American consumers will end up paying these higher tariffs.
(Note: US Customs and Border Protection currently collects tariffs and duties as goods enter the USA).
(Note: US Customs and Border Protection currently collects tariffs and duties as goods enter the USA).
Notable: The Sahm Rule Recession indicator is no longer flashing red. It fell back below the 0.5 trigger level in October, November and December.
Normally the Sahm Rule is triggered and it keeps going up as a recession becomes clearer.
This time? It's coming back down.
December level = 0.4
Normally the Sahm Rule is triggered and it keeps going up as a recession becomes clearer.
This time? It's coming back down.
December level = 0.4
January 10, 2025 at 2:10 PM
Notable: The Sahm Rule Recession indicator is no longer flashing red. It fell back below the 0.5 trigger level in October, November and December.
Normally the Sahm Rule is triggered and it keeps going up as a recession becomes clearer.
This time? It's coming back down.
December level = 0.4
Normally the Sahm Rule is triggered and it keeps going up as a recession becomes clearer.
This time? It's coming back down.
December level = 0.4