@jankaoertel.bsky.social @ecfrasia.bsky.social

It’s likely China will overshoot the goal if we are talking about half of the new sales. From Jan–Aug 2025, NEVs took 45.5% of new car sales and is on track to reach 50% by end of the year

While “mainstream” is rather vague, state media have explained that it means more than half of new car sales. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers projects NEVs could hit 60–80% of sales by 2035

auto.cctv.com/2024/08/15/A...

So Beijing gave more “flexibility” to meet the goal. But it wasn’t entirely “tech-neutral”, new energy vehicles in Chinese policy context refers to three technologies:
⚪️ Battery EVs
⚪️ Plug-in hybrids
⚪️Fuel-cell vehicles

The 2020 plan said: “pure battery EVs to become the mainstream of new car sales by 2035.” In 2024, it was watered down to “new energy vehicles” in another State Council document

www.gov.cn/zhengce/2024...

The ‘new’ goal: new energy vehicle to become the mainstream of new car sales by 2035

It first appeared 5 years ago in the New Energy Vehicle Industry Plan (2021–2035) - a State Council document from November 2020.

www.gov.cn/zhengce/cont...

Generated a quick chart to illustrate your point:
- Following the 2020-2024 trend = 7x of 2020 capacity by 2035
- Following the 2023-2024 trend = 10x of 2020 capacity by 2035

My brief with @LukePatey on the headwinds European wind OEMs are facing ecfr.eu/publication/...

CEO of the Octopus Energy Generation unit “If the lowest costs of energy and wind-turbine components are coming from China, it’s going to be very difficult to create a vision for net zero without understanding and learning some of the lessons that are coming from that geography.”

The grant (up to £3,750) has a scoring system weighted 70% to battery cell origin and 30% to assembly, giving European production an edge over Chinese and Korean EVs.
www.electriccarscheme.com/blog/chinese...