Sam Burch
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burchsam.bsky.social
Sam Burch
@burchsam.bsky.social
Sports Analytics 🏈💡
My model's error is 9.93 in 2025, which I'll take considering I don't adjust for injuries, in-season acquisitions, weather, etc. For reference, the spread (which I pull most Tuesdays) error is 9.58. #NFL #Analytics
December 4, 2025 at 2:20 AM
Dak deserves credit for sure, but idk if he'd win. He reminds me of Burrow last year - great QB play, but a mid team overall because of a bad defense
December 3, 2025 at 3:09 PM
If this is the case, #Panthers should still bring in competition for Young . He's been bad overall, even with a competent situation #KeepPounding
December 3, 2025 at 2:13 PM
#NFL QB Play (thru wk13)!
- Love is your MVP front runner, but it's a tight race
- Browns have no answer at QB, but their surrounding is certainly not great also
- 3 #1 overall picks are mid: Mayfield, Williams, & Murray
- Jackson is having his worst season
December 3, 2025 at 1:01 PM
Week 14 #NFL Leans!
- Burrow being back helps, but the Bills won't be stopped by that defense
- Lamar is having a down season, so Steelers are a value this week, even if Rodgers is out
- Bad weather could make the points more valuable, but I'd still take GB right now
December 3, 2025 at 12:52 PM
Week 14 #NFL Power Rankings!
- 3 below average teams likely to make the playoffs (Chargers, Bears, & AFC North winner)
- Rams will be alright... potential spot to buy Stafford as MVP
- Bengals should be higher: Burrow being back helps the offense significantly, however that defense is really bad
December 3, 2025 at 12:36 PM
#NFL SOS Adjustments (thru wk13)!
- Rams still arguably have the best offense & defense
- Only a handful of bad offenses
- NFC East Ds have faced some tough offenses
December 3, 2025 at 12:31 PM
Week 13 #NFL Review!
- Top-2 teams in success rate lost
- Max Brosmer... oof
- Love helped his case for MVP this week
December 3, 2025 at 12:21 PM
Yes please!
November 30, 2025 at 8:57 PM
Panthers relied on explosives and turnovers to upset the best team in the league #KeepPounding
November 30, 2025 at 8:47 PM
I second that
November 25, 2025 at 3:55 PM
#NFL QB Play (thru wk12)!
- Stafford may be a lock for MVP at this point, with the Rams' success
- If below Brissett, and not a first time starter, you should not be starting next year
- Jones tier = extremely situation dependent
November 25, 2025 at 3:44 PM
Week 13 #NFL Leans!
- Dolphins coming off a bye, but the Saints are not horrible
- Chiefs probably not a value, with the Cowboys recent additions on D
- Titans OL won't be able to stop the Jags DL
- Burrow coming back & Baker likely out make the next two games no value
November 25, 2025 at 3:31 PM
Week 13 #NFL Power Rankings!
- Chiefs are better than last year, but have been unlucky
- Raiders dethrone the Titans as the worst team
- Anyone below the Cowboys should not be making the playoffs
November 25, 2025 at 3:25 PM
#NFL SOS Adjustments (thru wk12)!
- Despite a recent slump, Colts still first in adjusted offensive efficiency
- I won't make it, however there's a case to be made the Titans D is worse than their O
- NFC East has 3 of the 4 worst Ds, although the Cowboys have been better with their recent additions
November 25, 2025 at 3:19 PM
Week 12 #NFL Review!
- Giants & Lions went to OT deservedly so, but the Lions deserved to win
- Browns got a few explosives, but Sanders first start didn't spell success for future starts
- Bucs without Baker are really bad
November 25, 2025 at 3:13 PM
#NFL QB Play (thru wk11)!
- Lots of competition for MVP
- Sanders (27 grade) was noticeable worse than arguably the worst QB in the NFL
- Cardinals lol
November 18, 2025 at 8:13 PM
Week 12 #NFL Leans!
- Lamar being back and Stroud, Penix, & Gabriel out makes 4 of the top 5 have no value
- McCarthy has been bad, but he's high variance & not a significant downgrade over Wentz
- 49ers probably a value, with my numbers not accounting for Purdy being back
November 18, 2025 at 12:42 PM
#NFL SOS Adjustments (thru wk11)!
- Ohio owns the worst offense & defense
- Titans have not had it easy, while the Bears have
- Giants D has not lived up to expectations
November 18, 2025 at 12:38 PM
Week 12 #NFL Power Rankings!
- Rams having a great offense & defense leads to them being #1
- Steelers are mid
- Browns arguable have the best defense & the worst offense
- Raiders falling to the Titans-level
- Texans defense carrying a putrid offense
November 18, 2025 at 12:33 PM
Week 11 #NFL Review!
- Crazy part about those offensive outliers is that 2 of those games were close
- Explosives & turnovers helped the Panthers outlast the Falcons
- Spain got a solid game
November 18, 2025 at 12:26 PM
Week 11 #NFL Leans!
- McCarthy isn't that much worse than Wentz, so Vikings are a value
- Again, this season, not much difference between Mariota & Daniels, so take the Commanders
- Stroud out & Jackson back cancels the value for the Texans & Browns respectively
November 12, 2025 at 12:53 AM
Week 11 #NFL Power Rankings!
- Rams have a top-3 offense & defense
- Raiders & Jets coming for the Titans
- Bears, 49ers, & Ravens are mid
November 12, 2025 at 12:41 AM
#NFL QB Play (thru wk10)!
- It's time for the Panthers to move on from Young
- Giants opening is attractive with Dart at the helm
- (sa)MVP
- Small sample, but Shough looking okay
- Sophomore Seasons Ranked: Williams, Daniels, Nix, Rattler, Penix, McCarthy
November 12, 2025 at 12:39 AM
#NFL SOS Adjustments (thru wk10)!
- We'll get to see Sanders before year-end #Browns
- Colts proved the Steelers game was just an outlier
- Williams has improved, but #Bears are not even an average offense
November 12, 2025 at 12:33 AM