One of the big reasons that Labour is losing voters is economy insecurity: tinyurl.com/yywv2mbw

However, the problem for the Labour Party is that their 2024 voters are not convinced by their performance in office.

Labour's strategy since the election seems designed to appeal to right-conservative voters.

This strategy hasn't worked on its own terms because they have lost the (very few) right-wing voters that they had, while also losing (much) larger numbers of left-wing voters.

Labour also faces more direct competition from left-liberal parties for the voters that they've lost to indecision.

These Lab -> undecided voters like the Liberal Democrats, Greens, and Plaid Cymru a lot more than they like Reform UK and the Conservatives.

So, these party blocs matter.

Labour's next biggest losses are to left-liberal parties (Liberal Democrats and Greens).

Reform's growth in support has mostly come from the Conservatives and non-voting (much less from Labour).

These reflect patterns of party-bloc voting that we saw in the 2024 UK GE: tinyurl.com/y5pv7thw

Labour's support has splintered.

Over 1 in 5 of their 2024 voters are now undecided. Labour could win these back, but there is a risk.

The Conservatives lost a similar amount to indecision after the last 3 elections, and they won most back in 2017 and 2019 (but not 2024).

Labour's decline in support is remarkable.

Support for Labour has fallen more sharply after this election than it has for any other winning party covered by the BESIP (though the timings between waves are not identical).

In short, Reform UK's voters are mostly ex-Conservative and UKIP voters, who believe that immigration is the key issue facing Britain and that the Conservatives cannot reduce it. As a result, they are very similar to UKIP voters in 2015!

We now move to discussing what the results in Professor Fieldhouse's talk mean for British politics with @paulbrand.bsky.social

Professor Fieldhouse is now discussing what the British Election Study can tell us about the latest UK General Election.

The main story is that we have high volatility between elections, but people tend to switch within 'party families'

To begin, Professor Fieldhouse is giving us an overview of the history and the British Election Study, and the contribution that it has made to understanding British politics

We are here at the @britishacademy.bsky.social to celebrate the 60th Anniversary of the British Election Study, with a presentation from Professor Ed Fieldhouse and discussion from @paulbrand.bsky.social

Can't be here? Don't worry, we will publish our event on YouTube later!

📢New blog

In our first post-election analysis, @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social , @profjanegreen.bsky.social, and Ed Fieldhouse explore how tactical voting helped the Liberal Democrats when they were the anti-Conservative option

Watch our summary: youtu.be/LSAdGa3bBnQ?...

Read here: shorturl.at/iet8O

As per usual, we also keep a change log. There are quite a lot of changes this time, so please take note.