This isn't the place to go for news. Go to NCPR.org where you can find their stories or listen.

I'll end with two questions. Are NYers grumpy about things right now - from affordability to taxes to public safety? Sure, absolutely. Are they so grumpy that they'll pivot from a fiercely anti-Trump vote in 2024 -- he lost by 12 points here -- to a pro-Trump-Stefanik vote in 2026? We'll see. /end

Meanwhile, this week's elections suggest that Democratic voters ARE intensely passionate about voting right now. Democratic turnout in 2026 is likely to be sky-high in NY. Even without being super charismatic herself, Hochul will draft on that energy. Which leaves Stefanik a very small window. 12/

Stefanik has tried to paint Hochul as a villain character, but I just don't talk to conservatives who are all that fired up against her. Vague dislike, sure. But I don't detect on the streets (or in the numbers) the kind of anti-Hochul animosity that will mobilize big GOP turnout. 11/

I've covered Hochul since she was an Upstate NY House member back in 2011. She's not flashy, she doesn't have big campaign chops, but she's a work horse, she's steady, has a ton of money to campaign with and she's fairly popular in more red-tilting Upstate counties with 47% approval. 10/

Bottom line: It's a gutsy play for Stefanik. After being snubbed by Trump and the national GOP, she found herself back in the role of a bit-player. Rather than settle for a safe backwater House seat, she's rolling the dice insisting on her relevance. Now...about Hochul. 9/

I'll add a final observation unrelated to numbers. I've watched Stefanik campaign. She's very skilled, makes few mistakes, and she'll capitalize on any Hochul stumbles. But Stefanik also hasn't had a truly competitive campaign in a decade. So it could be a big test for her to run from behind. 8/

One final challenge: Stefanik needs to win big Upstate. But many of Trump's policies - from tariffs to Medicaid cuts - are biting deep Upstate. A big question in 2026 will be whether Upstate voters think Democrats or Republicans are their best bet for navigating a difficult economy. 7/

Another huge question will be whether Stefanik's strong MAGA Trump allegiance will sell in NY. Stefanik has branded herself as a Trump-style pugilistic figure. There's very little daylight between them. But Trump is 30 points underwater in NY - 60 percent of voters view him unfavorably. 6/

One big question will be whether Stefanik's grim assessment of NY life - suggesting that she's needed to save the Empire state from "ashes" -- will resonate with voters. The Siena poll found 42% of voters believe NY is "on the right track" compared with 41% who say "wrong track." 5/

One poll has showed Stefanik beating Hochul (narrowly) beating Hochul. That poll predated this week's strong Democratic tilt in turnout and voting passion, which most pollsters missed. 4/ nypost.com/2025/10/28/u...

The poll showed Stefanik deep underwater positive-vs-negative and that was most true Upstate where people know her best. Stefanik has developed a reputation as a tough campaigner, but she's also made a lot of enemies including among Republicans. 3/ www.northcountrypublicradio.org/news/story/5...

First I think it's pretty clear this is a huge uphill climb for Stefanik. That was true even before this week's election results around the US which showed a huge shift back toward Democrats. This poll in September was grim for Stefanik. 2/ sri.siena.edu/2025/09/16/h...