Armando Martino
@bouncymandy.bsky.social
Professor of Maths at Southampton University. Geek, somewhat Italian. Opinions are my own.
Although there was/is a strain in Dem thinking (eg Yglesias) that maintained a progressive politician *couldn't* win and that the only route to electoral success was via moderation.
That narrative has been complicated, at the very least.
That narrative has been complicated, at the very least.
November 10, 2025 at 8:27 AM
Although there was/is a strain in Dem thinking (eg Yglesias) that maintained a progressive politician *couldn't* win and that the only route to electoral success was via moderation.
That narrative has been complicated, at the very least.
That narrative has been complicated, at the very least.
Labour will - justly - pay a cost for breaking a prominent manifesto pledge. The pledge itself was irresponsible at best. If they accept that, then they can do as you say.
But that involves saying that their electoral strategy was flawed. I see no signs of that.
But that involves saying that their electoral strategy was flawed. I see no signs of that.
November 10, 2025 at 8:25 AM
Labour will - justly - pay a cost for breaking a prominent manifesto pledge. The pledge itself was irresponsible at best. If they accept that, then they can do as you say.
But that involves saying that their electoral strategy was flawed. I see no signs of that.
But that involves saying that their electoral strategy was flawed. I see no signs of that.
Was trying to explain to my local Green party not to rely on single polls, and be sceptical of some pollsters.
Didn't work ofc.
Didn't work ofc.
November 7, 2025 at 8:01 AM
Was trying to explain to my local Green party not to rely on single polls, and be sceptical of some pollsters.
Didn't work ofc.
Didn't work ofc.
Sure. But I think widespread apathy is unhealthy for democracy. I would rather more people took an interest, even if it means my side losing.
November 5, 2025 at 9:55 PM
Sure. But I think widespread apathy is unhealthy for democracy. I would rather more people took an interest, even if it means my side losing.
Their preferred outcome is so unworkable that it would damage their cause. *That's* why the government are delaying it.
The ideological blinkers here are astounding.
The ideological blinkers here are astounding.
November 4, 2025 at 8:16 AM
Their preferred outcome is so unworkable that it would damage their cause. *That's* why the government are delaying it.
The ideological blinkers here are astounding.
The ideological blinkers here are astounding.
Its the centrist version of false consciousness. They literally cannot imagine that people might have sound reason to reject their politics.
October 29, 2025 at 7:55 AM
Its the centrist version of false consciousness. They literally cannot imagine that people might have sound reason to reject their politics.
Exactly. Take the L, apologise for bad behaviour and carry on with your Marvel career. How hard can this be?
October 29, 2025 at 7:53 AM
Exactly. Take the L, apologise for bad behaviour and carry on with your Marvel career. How hard can this be?
This is silly though. True, Starmer and the centre generally are bad at messaging. But, crucially, they also *aren't* delivering.
This is not a rejection of good policy. The good policy is absent.
The centre cannot rely on a default assumption that they have all the answers.
This is not a rejection of good policy. The good policy is absent.
The centre cannot rely on a default assumption that they have all the answers.
October 28, 2025 at 5:11 PM
This is silly though. True, Starmer and the centre generally are bad at messaging. But, crucially, they also *aren't* delivering.
This is not a rejection of good policy. The good policy is absent.
The centre cannot rely on a default assumption that they have all the answers.
This is not a rejection of good policy. The good policy is absent.
The centre cannot rely on a default assumption that they have all the answers.
Its a disease of UK political commentary that seat numbers are seen as the *only* thing to matter. This is surely the most important result, but it isn't the only one.
The shallow majority was commented on at the time but Labour have been painfully slow to acknowledge it.
The shallow majority was commented on at the time but Labour have been painfully slow to acknowledge it.
October 28, 2025 at 9:34 AM
Its a disease of UK political commentary that seat numbers are seen as the *only* thing to matter. This is surely the most important result, but it isn't the only one.
The shallow majority was commented on at the time but Labour have been painfully slow to acknowledge it.
The shallow majority was commented on at the time but Labour have been painfully slow to acknowledge it.
I think a Green+LibDem agreement is possible over PR, despite political differences.
Labour would rather die as a party than support PR, I suspect.
Labour would rather die as a party than support PR, I suspect.
October 28, 2025 at 9:05 AM
I think a Green+LibDem agreement is possible over PR, despite political differences.
Labour would rather die as a party than support PR, I suspect.
Labour would rather die as a party than support PR, I suspect.
As a Green party member I like where we are, but I also suspect it is an outlier. One should always be cautious of individual polls.
Still, the enthusiasm we are getting is off the charts in local meetings.
Still, the enthusiasm we are getting is off the charts in local meetings.
October 28, 2025 at 9:03 AM
As a Green party member I like where we are, but I also suspect it is an outlier. One should always be cautious of individual polls.
Still, the enthusiasm we are getting is off the charts in local meetings.
Still, the enthusiasm we are getting is off the charts in local meetings.
It *is* fascinating to watch his theory of electoral politics collide with reality.
October 28, 2025 at 8:57 AM
It *is* fascinating to watch his theory of electoral politics collide with reality.
Like Atrios says below, there are lots of middle class professionals who are also socially progressive (ppl like me). They generally aren't revolutionary and dislike extremes *including* references to Enoch Powell.
October 24, 2025 at 9:39 AM
Like Atrios says below, there are lots of middle class professionals who are also socially progressive (ppl like me). They generally aren't revolutionary and dislike extremes *including* references to Enoch Powell.
Jokes aside, what is going on here? Are we looking at warring factions, or is this a case of people clinging to their choices while simultaneously rejecting the outcomes those choices produce? (Echoes of Brexit).
October 24, 2025 at 9:36 AM
Jokes aside, what is going on here? Are we looking at warring factions, or is this a case of people clinging to their choices while simultaneously rejecting the outcomes those choices produce? (Echoes of Brexit).
I think they can already see this. The recent welfare/PIP rebellion was a symptom of that, I'd guess.
October 24, 2025 at 9:03 AM
I think they can already see this. The recent welfare/PIP rebellion was a symptom of that, I'd guess.
They will likely change leader but not direction, probably, until a GE defeat.
Of course anything *might* happen but the faction currently in charge worked very hard to get to the top and won't easily go.
Of course anything *might* happen but the faction currently in charge worked very hard to get to the top and won't easily go.
October 24, 2025 at 8:50 AM
They will likely change leader but not direction, probably, until a GE defeat.
Of course anything *might* happen but the faction currently in charge worked very hard to get to the top and won't easily go.
Of course anything *might* happen but the faction currently in charge worked very hard to get to the top and won't easily go.
I hear you, but they will measure it in seats won and little else.
October 24, 2025 at 7:14 AM
I hear you, but they will measure it in seats won and little else.
Extremely badly, I think. They have to do worse than Corbyn in 2019 before there can be a real shift that is accepted by the whole party.
There are elements who want change now, but they have little power.
There are elements who want change now, but they have little power.
October 24, 2025 at 7:04 AM
Extremely badly, I think. They have to do worse than Corbyn in 2019 before there can be a real shift that is accepted by the whole party.
There are elements who want change now, but they have little power.
There are elements who want change now, but they have little power.
Unless or until Labour suffer heavy losses because of it, I doubt they will regard other parts of the left bloc as legitimate.
October 24, 2025 at 6:31 AM
Unless or until Labour suffer heavy losses because of it, I doubt they will regard other parts of the left bloc as legitimate.
The smarter centrists are bound to be worried about how this is going - it discredits their politics with the public. I guess that's why we are seeing such grumpiness from some of them.
October 23, 2025 at 5:06 PM
The smarter centrists are bound to be worried about how this is going - it discredits their politics with the public. I guess that's why we are seeing such grumpiness from some of them.
Exactly. And everyone knows that these "principled" stances won't last.
I don't know how they can possibly govern effectively when so many people think they are opportunistic about everything.
I don't know how they can possibly govern effectively when so many people think they are opportunistic about everything.
October 21, 2025 at 12:33 PM
Exactly. And everyone knows that these "principled" stances won't last.
I don't know how they can possibly govern effectively when so many people think they are opportunistic about everything.
I don't know how they can possibly govern effectively when so many people think they are opportunistic about everything.
Not if their main aim is to entice reform voters over to labour?
They don't like to criticise reform for fear of alienating their voters.
They don't like to criticise reform for fear of alienating their voters.
October 21, 2025 at 12:28 PM
Not if their main aim is to entice reform voters over to labour?
They don't like to criticise reform for fear of alienating their voters.
They don't like to criticise reform for fear of alienating their voters.
This iteration of Labour pretty much rejects the concerns of the Greens as a matter of principle.
October 21, 2025 at 12:21 PM
This iteration of Labour pretty much rejects the concerns of the Greens as a matter of principle.