I very much prefer the lens of “the market thinks these cuts are being delivered to contribute to an environment in which nominal growth is seen as sufficiently stabilizing if not accelerating” to explain the price action

That said there are very high quality data sets on employment that don't rely on random samples: state-level unemployment claims data is totally independent of the feds (though Dept of Labor aggregates it) plus payroll tax roles (those are federal).

I'm not technically an economist but as a financial markets professional I'm going to keep trusting them until there's evidence not to. That said, the odds that we will find evidence not to just went up significantly.