bobo sacamano
@bobosacamano.bsky.social
L/S small crap equity investor who does not give investment advice
Nice (ghastly) stat -- where from?
June 26, 2025 at 5:18 PM
Nice (ghastly) stat -- where from?
I can point to no hard evidence but I wonder if the whisperer's torch might be passed again soon since he's held it for so long now
June 18, 2025 at 6:58 PM
I can point to no hard evidence but I wonder if the whisperer's torch might be passed again soon since he's held it for so long now
Looks beautiful but that many people in a cavernous room of entirely hard surfaces (no carpeting or sound baffles) seems like it would be audial torture
April 30, 2025 at 6:00 PM
Looks beautiful but that many people in a cavernous room of entirely hard surfaces (no carpeting or sound baffles) seems like it would be audial torture
Lol I don't know why everyone hates this guy
March 21, 2025 at 5:46 PM
Lol I don't know why everyone hates this guy
Gig economy marketplaces? Not quite sure what you're asking but for me the big question about the last cohort of SV companies was "does this create shareholder value or just consumer surplus"
March 19, 2025 at 5:38 PM
Gig economy marketplaces? Not quite sure what you're asking but for me the big question about the last cohort of SV companies was "does this create shareholder value or just consumer surplus"
"15 per cent declines in small cap indices are much more common than recessions. They occur, on average, once every year and a half or so, and sometimes several times in a single year. The last one was in 2023, and there were two in 2022."
💀
www.ft.com/content/9c54...
💀
www.ft.com/content/9c54...
March 18, 2025 at 1:26 PM
"15 per cent declines in small cap indices are much more common than recessions. They occur, on average, once every year and a half or so, and sometimes several times in a single year. The last one was in 2023, and there were two in 2022."
💀
www.ft.com/content/9c54...
💀
www.ft.com/content/9c54...
The only thing it guarantees is to blow up everyone who owned your stock during 1Q, which when you think about it strongly *discourages* long-term share ownership
March 13, 2025 at 9:03 PM
The only thing it guarantees is to blow up everyone who owned your stock during 1Q, which when you think about it strongly *discourages* long-term share ownership
e.g. I think starting 2025 by lowering the 2025 bar, then beating throughout 2025, without 2026 estimates moving up, doesn't really make a stock work
March 13, 2025 at 8:59 PM
e.g. I think starting 2025 by lowering the 2025 bar, then beating throughout 2025, without 2026 estimates moving up, doesn't really make a stock work
Think this game has gotten old and beyond silly but CFOs still playing it; irritating
It's not really about beats anymore, it's about revisions, which in a way is more logical and LT-oriented, whereas previously the focus was purely ST goalposts
Obv all the trading of the LT target is highly ST
It's not really about beats anymore, it's about revisions, which in a way is more logical and LT-oriented, whereas previously the focus was purely ST goalposts
Obv all the trading of the LT target is highly ST
March 13, 2025 at 8:58 PM
Think this game has gotten old and beyond silly but CFOs still playing it; irritating
It's not really about beats anymore, it's about revisions, which in a way is more logical and LT-oriented, whereas previously the focus was purely ST goalposts
Obv all the trading of the LT target is highly ST
It's not really about beats anymore, it's about revisions, which in a way is more logical and LT-oriented, whereas previously the focus was purely ST goalposts
Obv all the trading of the LT target is highly ST
I was kidding sorry I prob can't help you, I run a book solo and rarely pair trade
I do have an arithmetic process involving rating the idea across several dimensions and then summing those ratings to get to a position size
Problem is biggest dimension is "conviction" so it's still subjective
I do have an arithmetic process involving rating the idea across several dimensions and then summing those ratings to get to a position size
Problem is biggest dimension is "conviction" so it's still subjective
March 13, 2025 at 7:41 PM
I was kidding sorry I prob can't help you, I run a book solo and rarely pair trade
I do have an arithmetic process involving rating the idea across several dimensions and then summing those ratings to get to a position size
Problem is biggest dimension is "conviction" so it's still subjective
I do have an arithmetic process involving rating the idea across several dimensions and then summing those ratings to get to a position size
Problem is biggest dimension is "conviction" so it's still subjective
Basically I plug my idea into the software and have it remove all types of risk except the tiny idiosyncratic risk I wanted
Then I lever that up as much as necessary to backsolve to a 20% IRR
Then when the trade goes against me 20 bps I delever and take the whole market down
Then I lever that up as much as necessary to backsolve to a 20% IRR
Then when the trade goes against me 20 bps I delever and take the whole market down
March 13, 2025 at 7:32 PM
Basically I plug my idea into the software and have it remove all types of risk except the tiny idiosyncratic risk I wanted
Then I lever that up as much as necessary to backsolve to a 20% IRR
Then when the trade goes against me 20 bps I delever and take the whole market down
Then I lever that up as much as necessary to backsolve to a 20% IRR
Then when the trade goes against me 20 bps I delever and take the whole market down
R2K 3-year total return: zero
March 10, 2025 at 6:13 PM
R2K 3-year total return: zero
As usual time horizon is everything
March 7, 2025 at 6:29 PM
As usual time horizon is everything
Pod-driven momentum has become so powerful and extreme that would-be contrarians sometimes jump too quickly to take the other side of the pod thesis
But the trade was working because it was correct
That is why these trades are so difficult: be right + bail first but not too early, or catch a knife
But the trade was working because it was correct
That is why these trades are so difficult: be right + bail first but not too early, or catch a knife
March 7, 2025 at 6:27 PM
Pod-driven momentum has become so powerful and extreme that would-be contrarians sometimes jump too quickly to take the other side of the pod thesis
But the trade was working because it was correct
That is why these trades are so difficult: be right + bail first but not too early, or catch a knife
But the trade was working because it was correct
That is why these trades are so difficult: be right + bail first but not too early, or catch a knife
In fact, in the 10Y post-dotcom, small cap indexes rose while large cap indexes fell
"McQuarrie found that while 10-year losses in U.S. stocks occur infrequently, they do occur, including in the 120 months ended in February 2009 when they lost a total of 37.4%."
www.wsj.com/finance/stoc...
"McQuarrie found that while 10-year losses in U.S. stocks occur infrequently, they do occur, including in the 120 months ended in February 2009 when they lost a total of 37.4%."
www.wsj.com/finance/stoc...
Are Stocks a Sure Thing Over the Long Term? Not Necessarily
While it doesn’t occur frequently, U.S. stocks, as well as international markets, have produced losses over 10- and 20-year periods, research shows.
www.wsj.com
March 6, 2025 at 7:11 PM
In fact, in the 10Y post-dotcom, small cap indexes rose while large cap indexes fell
"McQuarrie found that while 10-year losses in U.S. stocks occur infrequently, they do occur, including in the 120 months ended in February 2009 when they lost a total of 37.4%."
www.wsj.com/finance/stoc...
"McQuarrie found that while 10-year losses in U.S. stocks occur infrequently, they do occur, including in the 120 months ended in February 2009 when they lost a total of 37.4%."
www.wsj.com/finance/stoc...
Au contraire, if those prices are in fartcoins
February 21, 2025 at 12:10 PM
Au contraire, if those prices are in fartcoins
But index investing couldn’t also be a type of fad…could it?
January 31, 2025 at 7:17 PM
But index investing couldn’t also be a type of fad…could it?
The phone isn't ringing, because almost nobody who does this for a living is on this app...
January 27, 2025 at 2:42 PM
The phone isn't ringing, because almost nobody who does this for a living is on this app...
"...the DeepSeek R1 model beats OpenAI’s full o1 model on several popular math and coding evaluations, despite being more than 27 times cheaper to use its application programming interface and taking just two months to train."
www.theinformation.com/articles/wha...
www.theinformation.com/articles/wha...
What Stargate Means and What It Doesn’t
Ten months ago, we broke the story that OpenAI and Microsoft were discussing “Stargate,” an unprecedented $100 billion data center supercomputer to take artificial intelligence to new heights. On Tues...
www.theinformation.com
January 22, 2025 at 3:19 PM
"...the DeepSeek R1 model beats OpenAI’s full o1 model on several popular math and coding evaluations, despite being more than 27 times cheaper to use its application programming interface and taking just two months to train."
www.theinformation.com/articles/wha...
www.theinformation.com/articles/wha...
I readily admit a target price of $0 was more aggressive than I was thinking 😂
scorpionreports.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/TMDX.pdf
scorpionreports.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/TMDX.pdf
scorpionreports.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com
January 10, 2025 at 2:22 PM
I readily admit a target price of $0 was more aggressive than I was thinking 😂
scorpionreports.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/TMDX.pdf
scorpionreports.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/TMDX.pdf