Bob Burgess
@bobburgess.bsky.social
Bloomberg Opinion Executive Editor and markets/eco columnist. Former Executive Editor for Global Markets. Opinions are my own.
Bankers in the Dallas Fed's monthly survey don't seem so optimistic about the economy:
"We expect a recession in the next 12 months"
"We expect a recession in the next 12 months"
November 10, 2025 at 4:14 PM
Bankers in the Dallas Fed's monthly survey don't seem so optimistic about the economy:
"We expect a recession in the next 12 months"
"We expect a recession in the next 12 months"
WOW! Trump Media & Technology Group has really tanked over the last week, and is now down more than 60% this year when the S&P 500 is up 15%
November 6, 2025 at 8:15 PM
WOW! Trump Media & Technology Group has really tanked over the last week, and is now down more than 60% this year when the S&P 500 is up 15%
Cadwalader, one of the law firms that bowed to the Trump administration and agreed to provide $100 million of pro bono work, has lost almost one-fifth of its partners this year and is now seeking another firm to merger with:
November 6, 2025 at 7:28 PM
Cadwalader, one of the law firms that bowed to the Trump administration and agreed to provide $100 million of pro bono work, has lost almost one-fifth of its partners this year and is now seeking another firm to merger with:
Tonnage on container ships from China to the US has collapsed to the lowest since 2023, in what may be an ominous sign of consumer demand as we head into the holidays.
November 4, 2025 at 6:30 PM
Tonnage on container ships from China to the US has collapsed to the lowest since 2023, in what may be an ominous sign of consumer demand as we head into the holidays.
The responses from companies in this month's ISM Manufacturing Index survey hardly suggest a new "Golden Age":
November 3, 2025 at 5:54 PM
The responses from companies in this month's ISM Manufacturing Index survey hardly suggest a new "Golden Age":
BLOOMBERG GOVERNMENT:
About 160 of the government’s expert advisory committees have been killed — and in about a third of the cases, that wasn’t what was recommended by the agencies that relied on those boards as a link between regulators and the regulated.
About 160 of the government’s expert advisory committees have been killed — and in about a third of the cases, that wasn’t what was recommended by the agencies that relied on those boards as a link between regulators and the regulated.
November 3, 2025 at 12:55 PM
BLOOMBERG GOVERNMENT:
About 160 of the government’s expert advisory committees have been killed — and in about a third of the cases, that wasn’t what was recommended by the agencies that relied on those boards as a link between regulators and the regulated.
About 160 of the government’s expert advisory committees have been killed — and in about a third of the cases, that wasn’t what was recommended by the agencies that relied on those boards as a link between regulators and the regulated.
The CPI report laid bare the huge increase in meat prices. The last line here is YOY:
October 24, 2025 at 1:23 PM
The CPI report laid bare the huge increase in meat prices. The last line here is YOY:
We get CPI data tomorrow for September. The median estimate is for the inflation rate to have risen 0.4%, following a similar gain in in August. That would be the highest back-to-back readings since December/January.
The inflation rate is seen rising 3.1% from a year earlier, the most May 2024
The inflation rate is seen rising 3.1% from a year earlier, the most May 2024
October 23, 2025 at 8:23 PM
We get CPI data tomorrow for September. The median estimate is for the inflation rate to have risen 0.4%, following a similar gain in in August. That would be the highest back-to-back readings since December/January.
The inflation rate is seen rising 3.1% from a year earlier, the most May 2024
The inflation rate is seen rising 3.1% from a year earlier, the most May 2024
NATIONAL TRUST FOR HISTORIC PRESERVATION:
October 22, 2025 at 8:01 PM
NATIONAL TRUST FOR HISTORIC PRESERVATION:
Trump is now going to war with US cattle ranchers? Is this really a winning political strategy?
October 22, 2025 at 4:57 PM
Trump is now going to war with US cattle ranchers? Is this really a winning political strategy?
An absolutely brutal day for precious metals:
October 21, 2025 at 2:56 PM
An absolutely brutal day for precious metals:
The US is now bailing out Argentine farmers as US farmers go wanting?
October 20, 2025 at 3:17 PM
The US is now bailing out Argentine farmers as US farmers go wanting?
Here's a shocking chart from FHN showing federal tax receipts since 2010. What's shocking is the increasing tax burden on individuals relative to corporations.
October 17, 2025 at 1:14 PM
Here's a shocking chart from FHN showing federal tax receipts since 2010. What's shocking is the increasing tax burden on individuals relative to corporations.
As a veteran hedge fund manager, Bessent of all people should know that hope isn't a strategy:
*BESSENT: STILL POSSIBLE DEFICIT-TO-GDP RATIO GETS TOWARD 3%
We're a loooooooong way from 3% deficit to GDP:
*BESSENT: STILL POSSIBLE DEFICIT-TO-GDP RATIO GETS TOWARD 3%
We're a loooooooong way from 3% deficit to GDP:
October 15, 2025 at 12:54 PM
As a veteran hedge fund manager, Bessent of all people should know that hope isn't a strategy:
*BESSENT: STILL POSSIBLE DEFICIT-TO-GDP RATIO GETS TOWARD 3%
We're a loooooooong way from 3% deficit to GDP:
*BESSENT: STILL POSSIBLE DEFICIT-TO-GDP RATIO GETS TOWARD 3%
We're a loooooooong way from 3% deficit to GDP:
Bloomberg Eco conducted a deep dive into the Bureau of Labor Statistic's monthly employment report in the wake of the White House's allegations that the data was "rigged". Here are the main findings:
October 15, 2025 at 12:38 PM
Bloomberg Eco conducted a deep dive into the Bureau of Labor Statistic's monthly employment report in the wake of the White House's allegations that the data was "rigged". Here are the main findings:
Something doesn't smell right about this US government report today saying new home sales soared 20.5% in August. Why? Because a separate report from homebuilders themselves say business is way down. Here's the new home sales report vs the NAHB Housing Market Index:
September 24, 2025 at 4:01 PM
Something doesn't smell right about this US government report today saying new home sales soared 20.5% in August. Why? Because a separate report from homebuilders themselves say business is way down. Here's the new home sales report vs the NAHB Housing Market Index:
Trump went in front of the UN and boasted about how the US stock market is at record highs.
Yes, BUT, the US stock market has woefully underperformed the rest of the world this year:
Yes, BUT, the US stock market has woefully underperformed the rest of the world this year:
September 23, 2025 at 5:44 PM
Trump went in front of the UN and boasted about how the US stock market is at record highs.
Yes, BUT, the US stock market has woefully underperformed the rest of the world this year:
Yes, BUT, the US stock market has woefully underperformed the rest of the world this year:
Here is the Fed's new outlook for the fed funds rate in 2025, 2026, 2027 and 2028. That figure on the far right is the Fed's estimate of the long-range neutral rate
September 17, 2025 at 6:16 PM
Here is the Fed's new outlook for the fed funds rate in 2025, 2026, 2027 and 2028. That figure on the far right is the Fed's estimate of the long-range neutral rate
A minor milestone in global financial markets has just been reached, with the combined balance sheet assets of the Fed, ECB, BOJ and BOE falling to 35.1% of their collective GDP. That is lowest percentage since before the pandemic.
September 16, 2025 at 1:48 PM
A minor milestone in global financial markets has just been reached, with the combined balance sheet assets of the Fed, ECB, BOJ and BOE falling to 35.1% of their collective GDP. That is lowest percentage since before the pandemic.
Despite all the political noise in recent years, it's amazing how corporate profits have surged since the advent of the pandemic. In many ways, it helps explain why stocks are so resilient to seemingly negative news.
This from today's second-quarter GDP report:
This from today's second-quarter GDP report:
August 28, 2025 at 12:50 PM
Despite all the political noise in recent years, it's amazing how corporate profits have surged since the advent of the pandemic. In many ways, it helps explain why stocks are so resilient to seemingly negative news.
This from today's second-quarter GDP report:
This from today's second-quarter GDP report:
Housing affordability as measured by the NAR tumbled even as mortgage rates were less than 3.5% - because there was a lack of supply
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August 26, 2025 at 7:04 PM
Housing affordability as measured by the NAR tumbled even as mortgage rates were less than 3.5% - because there was a lack of supply
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*TRUMP: INTEREST RATES MUST COME DOWN FOR HOUSING COSTS
NO.NO.NO.NO.NO. All lower interest rates will do in a time of constrained supply is push up prices of the scarce supply that is available - as we saw in recent years:
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NO.NO.NO.NO.NO. All lower interest rates will do in a time of constrained supply is push up prices of the scarce supply that is available - as we saw in recent years:
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August 26, 2025 at 7:03 PM
*TRUMP: INTEREST RATES MUST COME DOWN FOR HOUSING COSTS
NO.NO.NO.NO.NO. All lower interest rates will do in a time of constrained supply is push up prices of the scarce supply that is available - as we saw in recent years:
🧵
NO.NO.NO.NO.NO. All lower interest rates will do in a time of constrained supply is push up prices of the scarce supply that is available - as we saw in recent years:
🧵
How soon before Intel's shares drop below the US government's "purchase" price of $20.47?
August 25, 2025 at 8:26 PM
How soon before Intel's shares drop below the US government's "purchase" price of $20.47?