Brian Nick
@bnick41.bsky.social
Economist/Strategist/Multi-Asset Investor. Views are my own.
This keeps escalating at least until the Fed holds steady on May 7.
April 18, 2025 at 7:00 PM
This keeps escalating at least until the Fed holds steady on May 7.
This definitely shows the effect of labor market slowing, but is it valid to exclude transfer payments if we’re interested in how income growth will translate to consumer spending? Not that higher growth in transfers can last forever, either. It’s a worrying report.
March 28, 2025 at 1:20 PM
This definitely shows the effect of labor market slowing, but is it valid to exclude transfer payments if we’re interested in how income growth will translate to consumer spending? Not that higher growth in transfers can last forever, either. It’s a worrying report.
But this means we still have 12-15 months of low CPI rent inflation data ahead of us.
March 28, 2025 at 1:43 AM
But this means we still have 12-15 months of low CPI rent inflation data ahead of us.
I don’t love the ISM or its sub indexes. But it doesn’t make me feel great that the last spike in this series in January 2024 happened during the same month that CPI/PCE came in hot and wrecked the bond market for six months.
January 7, 2025 at 3:42 PM
I don’t love the ISM or its sub indexes. But it doesn’t make me feel great that the last spike in this series in January 2024 happened during the same month that CPI/PCE came in hot and wrecked the bond market for six months.
Are consumers part of the speculative economy? 😂
December 23, 2024 at 5:26 PM
Are consumers part of the speculative economy? 😂
Maybe with rates where they were three months ago…
December 21, 2024 at 8:39 PM
Maybe with rates where they were three months ago…
You really need older well-off homeowners who have been on a spending binge for the past four years as their wealth has exploded feel slightly more nervous about the equity market without bringing it to a total collapse. Tightrope walk.
December 20, 2024 at 9:06 PM
You really need older well-off homeowners who have been on a spending binge for the past four years as their wealth has exploded feel slightly more nervous about the equity market without bringing it to a total collapse. Tightrope walk.
You’re seeing Torsten’s “rate hikes in 2025” scenario getting priced out, but to get those sweet, sweet rate cuts you need pain on the labor market side. Not a pretty picture.
December 20, 2024 at 9:00 PM
You’re seeing Torsten’s “rate hikes in 2025” scenario getting priced out, but to get those sweet, sweet rate cuts you need pain on the labor market side. Not a pretty picture.
HY spreads didn’t bottom until Memorial Day 2007.
December 18, 2024 at 4:50 PM
HY spreads didn’t bottom until Memorial Day 2007.
What benefits from the unwind/implosion? If the break comes along with a clear macro slowdown, it’s unlikely to be cyclicals. Maybe just very late cycle defensives?
December 17, 2024 at 11:49 PM
What benefits from the unwind/implosion? If the break comes along with a clear macro slowdown, it’s unlikely to be cyclicals. Maybe just very late cycle defensives?
Feels like the market is bracing itself for a hawkish FOMC outcome.
December 13, 2024 at 5:44 PM
Feels like the market is bracing itself for a hawkish FOMC outcome.
What’s going on with the 10yr?
December 13, 2024 at 5:39 PM
What’s going on with the 10yr?
Isn’t there some chance that by the time Congress gets around to a reconciliation bill on taxes next year it will be rebranded as a stimulus? Say, if U-3 is 4.7% or higher?
December 12, 2024 at 8:26 PM
Isn’t there some chance that by the time Congress gets around to a reconciliation bill on taxes next year it will be rebranded as a stimulus? Say, if U-3 is 4.7% or higher?
You just have to look at what this series did at the end of 2020 to see this is partisan bias and not genuine change in sentiment leading to upgraded business plans.
December 11, 2024 at 10:32 PM
You just have to look at what this series did at the end of 2020 to see this is partisan bias and not genuine change in sentiment leading to upgraded business plans.
The moves in the surprises indexes suggest the second explanation is correct. Not seeing higher inflation fears in the markets, just a sense that growth is on more solid footing.
December 11, 2024 at 7:52 PM
The moves in the surprises indexes suggest the second explanation is correct. Not seeing higher inflation fears in the markets, just a sense that growth is on more solid footing.
Mystery solved maybe?
December 6, 2024 at 3:35 PM
Mystery solved maybe?
Negative data surprises explains a lot of it. Nothing catastrophic but nothing to indicate the economy is about to shoot up like a rocket. Makes owning duration a a safer bet.
December 6, 2024 at 3:19 PM
Negative data surprises explains a lot of it. Nothing catastrophic but nothing to indicate the economy is about to shoot up like a rocket. Makes owning duration a a safer bet.
Today’s Citi number isn’t updated yet. Depending on how they calculate it, it might actually rise based on payrolls and Michigan.
December 6, 2024 at 3:18 PM
Today’s Citi number isn’t updated yet. Depending on how they calculate it, it might actually rise based on payrolls and Michigan.
Independents also upgraded their assessment of current conditions. Republicans are still reporting as if we’re in a Depression but they’re now as optimistic as they’ve been since 2019.
December 6, 2024 at 3:13 PM
Independents also upgraded their assessment of current conditions. Republicans are still reporting as if we’re in a Depression but they’re now as optimistic as they’ve been since 2019.
Exactly the opposite moves in the expectations category, which changed about how you’d expect. I don’t look at this survey anymore except for entertainment value.
December 6, 2024 at 3:11 PM
Exactly the opposite moves in the expectations category, which changed about how you’d expect. I don’t look at this survey anymore except for entertainment value.
I think there’s a data error. All the rise in current conditions was Democrats.
December 6, 2024 at 3:09 PM
I think there’s a data error. All the rise in current conditions was Democrats.
Is there a data error on current conditions? Why did D’s assessment rise so much while their outlook plummeted?
December 6, 2024 at 3:07 PM
Is there a data error on current conditions? Why did D’s assessment rise so much while their outlook plummeted?
But you can like bonds without liking housing if you’re just super bearish!
December 5, 2024 at 4:03 PM
But you can like bonds without liking housing if you’re just super bearish!