Ben Johnston
@bmj106.bsky.social
Engineer. Remainer. Leftie. In that order.
Yeah I was very surprised how crazy undervalued Iroegbunam was in that deal. Dobbin was known to be okay. Tim was one of our best prospects.
January 14, 2026 at 6:41 PM
Yeah I was very surprised how crazy undervalued Iroegbunam was in that deal. Dobbin was known to be okay. Tim was one of our best prospects.
You think Dobbin won't go for much? He is still young and I thought he was having an okay season. 7 goals and 5 assists in 17 games would seem pretty good for a 23 year old. Maybe £10m is a stretch but he's certainly not crap.
January 14, 2026 at 4:42 PM
You think Dobbin won't go for much? He is still young and I thought he was having an okay season. 7 goals and 5 assists in 17 games would seem pretty good for a 23 year old. Maybe £10m is a stretch but he's certainly not crap.
I make that 16 successes, 6 meh, 7 flops, and 3 TBD.
Of the flops Guess and was the most expensive.
There has obviously been a lot of reading and I would like to see that settle down. But in general it's a very positive picture
Of the flops Guess and was the most expensive.
There has obviously been a lot of reading and I would like to see that settle down. But in general it's a very positive picture
January 14, 2026 at 4:37 PM
I make that 16 successes, 6 meh, 7 flops, and 3 TBD.
Of the flops Guess and was the most expensive.
There has obviously been a lot of reading and I would like to see that settle down. But in general it's a very positive picture
Of the flops Guess and was the most expensive.
There has obviously been a lot of reading and I would like to see that settle down. But in general it's a very positive picture
Exactly. There is a report from Ornstein that he preferred Spurs cus he would get game time. But I think that is just to keep their fans happy. If we had an offer accepted Emery would call him and explain his plan for him. He would pick us, all things level. No way he chooses Spurs & their "manager"
January 13, 2026 at 8:40 AM
Exactly. There is a report from Ornstein that he preferred Spurs cus he would get game time. But I think that is just to keep their fans happy. If we had an offer accepted Emery would call him and explain his plan for him. He would pick us, all things level. No way he chooses Spurs & their "manager"
That strikes me as narrative to fit the circumstances from Gallagher's camp. My suspicion is that he was happy with either option. There is no way he would have chosen Spurs over us. Who is even signing him the "manager" or the board? Suspect he just wants out of Madrid and both options seemed okay
January 13, 2026 at 8:09 AM
That strikes me as narrative to fit the circumstances from Gallagher's camp. My suspicion is that he was happy with either option. There is no way he would have chosen Spurs over us. Who is even signing him the "manager" or the board? Suspect he just wants out of Madrid and both options seemed okay
I wonder to what extent that is true. It hasn't seemed to do anything for West Ham or Fulham. I wonder whether being the biggest club in a 70 mile radius could help level this a bit. London will always be bigger, but it is also a very crowded market.
January 12, 2026 at 1:37 PM
I wonder to what extent that is true. It hasn't seemed to do anything for West Ham or Fulham. I wonder whether being the biggest club in a 70 mile radius could help level this a bit. London will always be bigger, but it is also a very crowded market.
I have mentioned elsewhere that I always get nervous about these links. I have a theory that the club keep one eye on succession planning when they make signings. And I would be concerned that spending any money on Gallagher would imply a summer sale to either a starting CM or McGinn.
January 9, 2026 at 5:22 PM
I have mentioned elsewhere that I always get nervous about these links. I have a theory that the club keep one eye on succession planning when they make signings. And I would be concerned that spending any money on Gallagher would imply a summer sale to either a starting CM or McGinn.
Yeah I have been really confused by this understanding that purchases like these don't count for PSR. I know that youth football spending doesn't count, but transfer fees on young players would be a crazy loophole.
January 9, 2026 at 9:57 AM
Yeah I have been really confused by this understanding that purchases like these don't count for PSR. I know that youth football spending doesn't count, but transfer fees on young players would be a crazy loophole.
God I hope we can manoeuvre our way so that we aren't continually forced to sell our players to compete. There must be a point where consistent success results in stability. This team is getting to the end of its cycle. Soon we will need to replace Martinez, Watkins, and McGinn. We need headroom.
January 6, 2026 at 1:19 PM
God I hope we can manoeuvre our way so that we aren't continually forced to sell our players to compete. There must be a point where consistent success results in stability. This team is getting to the end of its cycle. Soon we will need to replace Martinez, Watkins, and McGinn. We need headroom.
My favourite part is how it ends with "Although McGinn would never join the Irons based on the current standings."
...No shit?! Why even bother writing this article? Might as well write about how re-signing Declan Rice could be just the antidote they need.
...No shit?! Why even bother writing this article? Might as well write about how re-signing Declan Rice could be just the antidote they need.
January 5, 2026 at 7:03 PM
My favourite part is how it ends with "Although McGinn would never join the Irons based on the current standings."
...No shit?! Why even bother writing this article? Might as well write about how re-signing Declan Rice could be just the antidote they need.
...No shit?! Why even bother writing this article? Might as well write about how re-signing Declan Rice could be just the antidote they need.
It's infuriating. Last season I felt we had some of the best depth in the league. This season we have been forced to sell off that depth and not replace it.
December 30, 2025 at 10:18 PM
It's infuriating. Last season I felt we had some of the best depth in the league. This season we have been forced to sell off that depth and not replace it.
Any thoughts on what CL football would do to our SCR situation? I am really hopeful we can go into Summer 2026 and not have to sell players before we can strengthen.
December 30, 2025 at 11:11 AM
Any thoughts on what CL football would do to our SCR situation? I am really hopeful we can go into Summer 2026 and not have to sell players before we can strengthen.
I agree. Fans and pundits like to jump on anything to generate a narrative or boost their team. I would like to see a few January signings or a few players come back into form to help us control games better and create more chances.
December 30, 2025 at 11:10 AM
I agree. Fans and pundits like to jump on anything to generate a narrative or boost their team. I would like to see a few January signings or a few players come back into form to help us control games better and create more chances.
Off the top of my head all those games were tight and could have swung against us. They make up 50% of our points.
That's not to say I don't believe in this team. The mentality this year is elite and I think they are capable of even more. But I would like to see some more dominant displays in 2026
That's not to say I don't believe in this team. The mentality this year is elite and I think they are capable of even more. But I would like to see some more dominant displays in 2026
December 30, 2025 at 11:08 AM
Off the top of my head all those games were tight and could have swung against us. They make up 50% of our points.
That's not to say I don't believe in this team. The mentality this year is elite and I think they are capable of even more. But I would like to see some more dominant displays in 2026
That's not to say I don't believe in this team. The mentality this year is elite and I think they are capable of even more. But I would like to see some more dominant displays in 2026
Yeah there is some of that for sure. xG doesn't measure those chances where we over play it or the attack breaks down before a shot. I don't agree that there were loads of games we should have won by more. West Ham, Leeds, Wolves, United, Chelsea, Arsenal, Man City.
December 30, 2025 at 11:06 AM
Yeah there is some of that for sure. xG doesn't measure those chances where we over play it or the attack breaks down before a shot. I don't agree that there were loads of games we should have won by more. West Ham, Leeds, Wolves, United, Chelsea, Arsenal, Man City.
I think both are over reacting. What I wanted to say in my original post is that:
If you truly believe the xG and that Villa are unsustainably overperforming with no meaningful qualifiers. You also have to believe that Villa have a similar attacking threat as West Ham and Leeds...
If you truly believe the xG and that Villa are unsustainably overperforming with no meaningful qualifiers. You also have to believe that Villa have a similar attacking threat as West Ham and Leeds...
December 30, 2025 at 11:00 AM
I think both are over reacting. What I wanted to say in my original post is that:
If you truly believe the xG and that Villa are unsustainably overperforming with no meaningful qualifiers. You also have to believe that Villa have a similar attacking threat as West Ham and Leeds...
If you truly believe the xG and that Villa are unsustainably overperforming with no meaningful qualifiers. You also have to believe that Villa have a similar attacking threat as West Ham and Leeds...
*mean
The models suggest we should be getting 1.2 ppg (clearly bollocks). But with some tweaks we could comfortably get 1.7-2 ppg.
The models suggest we should be getting 1.2 ppg (clearly bollocks). But with some tweaks we could comfortably get 1.7-2 ppg.
December 30, 2025 at 10:57 AM
*mean
The models suggest we should be getting 1.2 ppg (clearly bollocks). But with some tweaks we could comfortably get 1.7-2 ppg.
The models suggest we should be getting 1.2 ppg (clearly bollocks). But with some tweaks we could comfortably get 1.7-2 ppg.
But there is nothing to suggest that this "means" will be the same one we have seen. We have a LOT of games at home against poorer opposition. Couple that with fresh signings and a revived Ollie and we could comfortably get top 4 maybe even a cheeky title challenge.
December 30, 2025 at 10:55 AM
But there is nothing to suggest that this "means" will be the same one we have seen. We have a LOT of games at home against poorer opposition. Couple that with fresh signings and a revived Ollie and we could comfortably get top 4 maybe even a cheeky title challenge.
Yes! This is probably the biggest thing for me. We can look back at the last 18 games one by one and say there was an element of luck. And perhaps the same performance would have worse results if replayed. But those points are locked in. The next 18 we we may well revert to the mean"
December 30, 2025 at 10:53 AM
Yes! This is probably the biggest thing for me. We can look back at the last 18 games one by one and say there was an element of luck. And perhaps the same performance would have worse results if replayed. But those points are locked in. The next 18 we we may well revert to the mean"
It all implies to me that we have clearly got an amazing mentality as a squad. And there are intangibles that are very strong. But also unless we tweak things we should expect to start seeing results to slip eventually. Unless there is some tactical nuance that hasn't been uncovered.
December 30, 2025 at 10:51 AM
It all implies to me that we have clearly got an amazing mentality as a squad. And there are intangibles that are very strong. But also unless we tweak things we should expect to start seeing results to slip eventually. Unless there is some tactical nuance that hasn't been uncovered.
Couple that with the fact that Ollie isn't scoring a lot but also isn't underperforming his xG. Implying that he isn't getting many chances. And the fact that frankly there aren't many games this season where a draw would have been an "unfair" result.
December 30, 2025 at 10:50 AM
Couple that with the fact that Ollie isn't scoring a lot but also isn't underperforming his xG. Implying that he isn't getting many chances. And the fact that frankly there aren't many games this season where a draw would have been an "unfair" result.
Who are able to outperform xG on long range shots. Both can be true of course because where and how those shots happen matters. But I don't really see this looked at anywhere.
December 30, 2025 at 10:48 AM
Who are able to outperform xG on long range shots. Both can be true of course because where and how those shots happen matters. But I don't really see this looked at anywhere.
That's very interesting. Is there much written about xPts? I guess one of my concerns is that we seem to be as fans talking from both sides of our mouths. On one hand we are limiting our opponents to high volumes of low xG shots and this explains their high xG. On the other, we have amazing players
December 30, 2025 at 10:46 AM
That's very interesting. Is there much written about xPts? I guess one of my concerns is that we seem to be as fans talking from both sides of our mouths. On one hand we are limiting our opponents to high volumes of low xG shots and this explains their high xG. On the other, we have amazing players