Bill Shobe
@billshobe.bsky.social
An environmental economist at the University of Virginia working on emission market design, climate policy, carbon dioxide removal, and other stuff.
When I was doing electricity demand forecasts for Virginia around 2015, demand was flat. Residential was falling a bit due to more efficient lighting, etc. Commercial was flat, industrial declining. What a surprise when growth picked up quickly starting about 2019. All data centers.
March 20, 2025 at 12:14 AM
When I was doing electricity demand forecasts for Virginia around 2015, demand was flat. Residential was falling a bit due to more efficient lighting, etc. Commercial was flat, industrial declining. What a surprise when growth picked up quickly starting about 2019. All data centers.
No offense taken. Virginia just did a modeling exercise (with help from E3) to figure out how we might meet this demand. It was not a pretty picture for climate or ratepayers. Ratepayers will likely pay more as we move up the marginal cost curve. And you already know the implications for climate. 😧
March 13, 2025 at 2:05 AM
No offense taken. Virginia just did a modeling exercise (with help from E3) to figure out how we might meet this demand. It was not a pretty picture for climate or ratepayers. Ratepayers will likely pay more as we move up the marginal cost curve. And you already know the implications for climate. 😧
Mostly mine was a straight time-series forecast. Any past efficiency gains are baked in. The exception is one coop where there are no operating data centers, but there are contracts for an astonishing 11 GW of capacity.
March 11, 2025 at 12:57 PM
Mostly mine was a straight time-series forecast. Any past efficiency gains are baked in. The exception is one coop where there are no operating data centers, but there are contracts for an astonishing 11 GW of capacity.
That's my forecast. I'm a strong advocate for climate controls and have no connection to or investment in the data center business. Knowing what is happening is essential for figuring out what to do about it.
March 7, 2025 at 7:10 PM
That's my forecast. I'm a strong advocate for climate controls and have no connection to or investment in the data center business. Knowing what is happening is essential for figuring out what to do about it.
Without data centers, retail sales are almost flat, even with high penetration of EVs
March 7, 2025 at 12:54 AM
Without data centers, retail sales are almost flat, even with high penetration of EVs