Bill Gale
@billgale.bsky.social
Co-director, Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center
The plan to extend and expand the 199A deduction for businesses makes for bad economics. My new blog with @samthorpe.bsky.social explains why.
🚨 NEW from me + @billgale.bsky.social: as part of their 'Big, Beautiful Bill,' House Rs want to expand a tax break for businesses known as Section 199A. In a new Brookings brief, we explain why economists across the political spectrum agree this would be regressive and ineffective. A thread (1/8):
For once, economists agree: Extending Section 199A is a bad idea
William Gale and Samuel Thorpe explain the drawbacks of Section 199a, a business tax cut under consideration in Congress
www.brookings.edu
May 22, 2025 at 5:59 PM
The plan to extend and expand the 199A deduction for businesses makes for bad economics. My new blog with @samthorpe.bsky.social explains why.
New post out in @contrariannews.org on Trump's misguided and potentially destructive tariffs.
It’s not every day that a president proudly pursues a tariff plan that threatens to create a global recession. (Un)fortunately for us, that day has come, gone, and come back again. Economist @billgale.bsky.social is here to discuss the misconceptions and fumbled steps.
Tariffs: A bad idea, poorly implemented
The president's trade policy is threatening a global recession.
contrarian.substack.com
April 16, 2025 at 8:13 PM
New post out in @contrariannews.org on Trump's misguided and potentially destructive tariffs.
In the latest budget update, Alan Auerbach and I show that the fiscal outlook remains grim.
Under current law, debt will reach 154% of GDP by 2055.
Under current policy, which assumes that TCJA is made permanent, debt reaches 209% of GDP.
www.brookings.edu/articles/the...
Under current law, debt will reach 154% of GDP by 2055.
Under current policy, which assumes that TCJA is made permanent, debt reaches 209% of GDP.
www.brookings.edu/articles/the...
The fiscal outlook at the beginning of the new administration
Alan Auerbach and William Gale provide an update on the fiscal outlook, showing that the federal budget trajectory remains unsustainable.
www.brookings.edu
February 26, 2025 at 3:52 PM
In the latest budget update, Alan Auerbach and I show that the fiscal outlook remains grim.
Under current law, debt will reach 154% of GDP by 2055.
Under current policy, which assumes that TCJA is made permanent, debt reaches 209% of GDP.
www.brookings.edu/articles/the...
Under current law, debt will reach 154% of GDP by 2055.
Under current policy, which assumes that TCJA is made permanent, debt reaches 209% of GDP.
www.brookings.edu/articles/the...
New working paper:
The U.S. income tax may be race-neutral on paper, but its effects aren’t. Our new paper shows how white, Black, and Hispanic families face different burdens, especially when considering untaxed income.
Read more: www.brookings.edu/articles/the...
The U.S. income tax may be race-neutral on paper, but its effects aren’t. Our new paper shows how white, Black, and Hispanic families face different burdens, especially when considering untaxed income.
Read more: www.brookings.edu/articles/the...
The same but different
William Gale, Oliver Hall, and John Sabelhaus measure the differential taxation of Black, Hispanic and white households
www.brookings.edu
February 24, 2025 at 4:34 PM
New working paper:
The U.S. income tax may be race-neutral on paper, but its effects aren’t. Our new paper shows how white, Black, and Hispanic families face different burdens, especially when considering untaxed income.
Read more: www.brookings.edu/articles/the...
The U.S. income tax may be race-neutral on paper, but its effects aren’t. Our new paper shows how white, Black, and Hispanic families face different burdens, especially when considering untaxed income.
Read more: www.brookings.edu/articles/the...
1.2% of GDP.
That's how much extending TCJA will cost each year. It's also how much would it take to close the Social Security funding gap for 75 years or longer.
Congress could save Social Security, and avoiding a regressive tax cut would make it possible.
www.brookings.edu/articles/cut...
That's how much extending TCJA will cost each year. It's also how much would it take to close the Social Security funding gap for 75 years or longer.
Congress could save Social Security, and avoiding a regressive tax cut would make it possible.
www.brookings.edu/articles/cut...
Cut taxes or save Social Security? The $5 trillion question
Revenues that would go to making the TCJA tax cuts permanent could be used to make Social Security solvent for at least the next 75 years.
www.brookings.edu
February 21, 2025 at 5:06 PM
1.2% of GDP.
That's how much extending TCJA will cost each year. It's also how much would it take to close the Social Security funding gap for 75 years or longer.
Congress could save Social Security, and avoiding a regressive tax cut would make it possible.
www.brookings.edu/articles/cut...
That's how much extending TCJA will cost each year. It's also how much would it take to close the Social Security funding gap for 75 years or longer.
Congress could save Social Security, and avoiding a regressive tax cut would make it possible.
www.brookings.edu/articles/cut...
The gutting of the estate tax has been costly. If the 2001 rules were still in place (indexed for inflation), it would've raised $145B in 2021—seven times more than the actual $18B collected.
www.brookings.edu/articles/tax...
www.brookings.edu/articles/tax...
Taxing the Great Wealth Transfer with a stronger estate tax
www.brookings.edu
February 18, 2025 at 4:50 PM
The gutting of the estate tax has been costly. If the 2001 rules were still in place (indexed for inflation), it would've raised $145B in 2021—seven times more than the actual $18B collected.
www.brookings.edu/articles/tax...
www.brookings.edu/articles/tax...
As we face the largest intergenerational wealth transfer in US history, converting the federal estate tax (taxing what people leave) to an inheritance tax (taxing what people receive) could be a win-win. 1/2
www.brookings.edu/articles/fol...
www.brookings.edu/articles/fol...
Follow the money: Tax inheritances, not estates
www.brookings.edu
February 14, 2025 at 2:11 PM
As we face the largest intergenerational wealth transfer in US history, converting the federal estate tax (taxing what people leave) to an inheritance tax (taxing what people receive) could be a win-win. 1/2
www.brookings.edu/articles/fol...
www.brookings.edu/articles/fol...
As DOGE continues its blitz across Washington, it's missing a major opportunity: tax expenditures.
Reforming these hidden subsidies in the tax code, which cost roughly $1.5T annually, could reduce deficits, increase progressivity, and simplify the code.
www.brookings.edu/articles/a-b...
Reforming these hidden subsidies in the tax code, which cost roughly $1.5T annually, could reduce deficits, increase progressivity, and simplify the code.
www.brookings.edu/articles/a-b...
A bigger, easier target for DOGE: Tax expenditures
Cutting tax expenditures could be an effective and politically viable way to streamline the federal government and raise revenues.
www.brookings.edu
February 11, 2025 at 8:27 PM
As DOGE continues its blitz across Washington, it's missing a major opportunity: tax expenditures.
Reforming these hidden subsidies in the tax code, which cost roughly $1.5T annually, could reduce deficits, increase progressivity, and simplify the code.
www.brookings.edu/articles/a-b...
Reforming these hidden subsidies in the tax code, which cost roughly $1.5T annually, could reduce deficits, increase progressivity, and simplify the code.
www.brookings.edu/articles/a-b...
Reposted by Bill Gale
Trump is in LV promoting no taxes on tips. Exempting tips from taxes does nothing to help most low-income workers, and it may do little for many tipped workers—or even harm them as @billgale.bsky.social & Ian Berlin of @brookings.edu discuss in @econofact.bsky.social econofact.org/tip-off-the-...
Tip Off: The Problem with Exempting Tips from Taxes | Econofact
Exempting tips from taxes does nothing to help most low-income workers, and it may do little for many tipped workers—or even actively harm them.
econofact.org
January 25, 2025 at 9:09 PM
Trump is in LV promoting no taxes on tips. Exempting tips from taxes does nothing to help most low-income workers, and it may do little for many tipped workers—or even harm them as @billgale.bsky.social & Ian Berlin of @brookings.edu discuss in @econofact.bsky.social econofact.org/tip-off-the-...
One of the main justifications for the TCJA was boosting investment. But did it achieve this goal?
Recent research shows that the impact on overall investment was small, meaning that lawmakers could raise rates and increase revenue with little economic downside.
www.brookings.edu/articles/how...
Recent research shows that the impact on overall investment was small, meaning that lawmakers could raise rates and increase revenue with little economic downside.
www.brookings.edu/articles/how...
How much did TCJA raise investment?
Ahead of the Trump tax cuts expiring in 2025, William Gale examines the limited effect the cuts had on corporate investment.
www.brookings.edu
January 13, 2025 at 4:49 PM
One of the main justifications for the TCJA was boosting investment. But did it achieve this goal?
Recent research shows that the impact on overall investment was small, meaning that lawmakers could raise rates and increase revenue with little economic downside.
www.brookings.edu/articles/how...
Recent research shows that the impact on overall investment was small, meaning that lawmakers could raise rates and increase revenue with little economic downside.
www.brookings.edu/articles/how...
Here's one for the wonks: in a new paper with @johnsabelhaus.bsky.social, we introduce a new measure of income for distributional analyses, Expanded Income.
www.brookings.edu/articles/exp...
www.brookings.edu/articles/exp...
Expanded Income
William G. Gale and John Sabelhaus develop a new annual measure of income for distributional tax analysis.
www.brookings.edu
December 16, 2024 at 7:33 PM
Here's one for the wonks: in a new paper with @johnsabelhaus.bsky.social, we introduce a new measure of income for distributional analyses, Expanded Income.
www.brookings.edu/articles/exp...
www.brookings.edu/articles/exp...
In a new paper and policy brief, we analyze the upcoming Great Wealth Transfer and explore several options for tax reform. We show that converting the estate tax to an inheritance tax, as well as taxing unrealized capital gains at death, can improve progressivity and raise significant revenue.
The U.S. is about to see the largest set of intergenerational wealth transfers in its history. William Gale, Oliver Hall, and John Sabelhaus examine how to tax these flows appropriately and judiciously. www.brookings.edu/articles/how...
How should we tax the Great Wealth Transfer?
Intergenerational wealth transfers will increase in the coming years, and transfer tax reforms can raise revenue in a progressive way.
www.brookings.edu
December 16, 2024 at 6:57 PM
In a new paper and policy brief, we analyze the upcoming Great Wealth Transfer and explore several options for tax reform. We show that converting the estate tax to an inheritance tax, as well as taxing unrealized capital gains at death, can improve progressivity and raise significant revenue.
In a new Tax Notes paper, Kyle and I look at how taxes on the affluent affect six key economic distortions and how various proposals for reform could improve these distortions.
The full paper is now available, plus a related blog: www.brookings.edu/articles/are...
The full paper is now available, plus a related blog: www.brookings.edu/articles/are...
December 3, 2024 at 8:32 PM
In a new Tax Notes paper, Kyle and I look at how taxes on the affluent affect six key economic distortions and how various proposals for reform could improve these distortions.
The full paper is now available, plus a related blog: www.brookings.edu/articles/are...
The full paper is now available, plus a related blog: www.brookings.edu/articles/are...
Finally made the jump over here, and I'm excited to share some recent work, starting with this summer's JEP paper with @kylepomerleau.bsky.social and Jeffrey Hoopes. We find that TCJA fell short of its pro-growth goals while mainly benefiting the wealthy—at significant cost to the federal budget.
December 3, 2024 at 8:30 PM
Finally made the jump over here, and I'm excited to share some recent work, starting with this summer's JEP paper with @kylepomerleau.bsky.social and Jeffrey Hoopes. We find that TCJA fell short of its pro-growth goals while mainly benefiting the wealthy—at significant cost to the federal budget.