The debate about the trajectory of frontier AI is remarkably divisive—ultimately no one knows if, when, or to what extent scaling frontier models will prove transformative in defense. 8/

Focusing on frontier AI above all else could sideline narrow AI that more effectively addresses pressing national security needs—think hypersonic modeling, autonomous drone swarming, and the material science research critical to developing new weapons 6/

*IF* you believe we’re on the cusp of superintelligence, this strategy makes sense: manufacturing a bunch of nobel-prize-level minds and beyond would eclipse other AI priorities. 4/

The National Security Memorandum on AI , released just before the election, was the clearest indication that the USG approach was becoming dangerously unbalanced in favor of frontier AI. 2/