What formula doesn’t capture:

•FX shifts – currency changes can offset tariff effects
•Retaliation – does not take counter-tariffs into account
•Supply chains – e.g. rerouting via third countries
•Long-term shifts – firms may relocate, buyers may substitute etc

Intention: eliminate bilateral trade deficit

Depends on:
1. Elasticity. If demand is price-sensitive, small tariff shrinks import volumes sharply.
2. Pass-through. If exporters absorb costs, U.S. prices stay low, imports don’t fall.
3. Larger import volume= bigger tariff needed

This isn’t catch-up. It’s strategic divergence. Shows:

🔹 AI isn’t just about compute.
🔹 Technonationalism is now an accelerant.

#AI #Geopolitics #DeepSeek

2/2 how AI will shape society, industry, and—always top of mind for me—the integrity of information and the future of democracy. As AI accelerates and transforms how we work, live and govern, safeguarding what matters most becomes increasingly urgent.

Full METR report here: metr.org/blog/2025-03...

4/ The big questions:
🔹 How will automation reshape work?
🔹 Who benefits from this shift?
🔹 How do we ensure AI enhances, rather than replaces, human potential?

3/ The projections? A 20-fold market expansion in 8 years—with tens of millions of humanoid robots by 2050. Apollo is a milestone, but today’s AI is still limited. The real shift comes when robots not just execute tasks, but adapt like humans.

2/ Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says humanoid robots will be widely deployed in factories within just a few years—not decades. Manufacturing is the natural first frontier—structured tasks, controlled environments, and clear economic incentives.

1/ Unlike traditional robotic arms, humanoids are flexible—they can switch tasks, work alongside humans, and reduce production costs without reconfiguring assembly lines. Mercedes-Benz is investing millions in trials across Germany & Hungary.

3/ Esp in a world of unprecedented interconnection & information, yet fractured by misinformation & polarization, genuine understanding is often overlooked in the haste. Now working in the future-orientated field of tech, I think more about lessons of the past to guide for a more humane future

2/For those of us who live today because of the sacrifices made and horrors endured, there is a profound responsibility to resist dehumanization and uphold human dignity as a guiding principles.

like the CHIPS Act and Biden’s AI infrastructure push, and Starmer said it explicitly yesterday: nations are innovating not just to get ahead, but to avoid falling behind in competition where the stakes can’t yet be fully comprehended.

6/ Industrial AI is an example. It can identify high risk areas - like weather patterns in dry vegetation - then predict & carry out preventative maintenance. Automated Shutoff Systems offer another solution, by immediately powering down specific lines when risky conditions occur

5/ Gov & utility companies have a responsibility to adopt new technologies that can help protect against devastation. It works in their favor too. Most importantly by protecting citizens lives. Also easing burden on public services + limiting damage to expensive infrastructure.

4/Despite this, it's forecast that global spending on wildfire prevention, mitigation and response will fall short by over $100B in 2025 according to the ICF.

3/ Energy and utility companies also play their role. Their infrastructure can cause fires; there have been instances of transmission and distribution lines sparking flames through contact with vegetation. Some companies are investing in new technology that can help.