Brad Keithley
@bgkeithley.bsky.social
Alaskan. Managing Director of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets. As part of that, a weekly podcast & column. Away from that, theater, concerts, travel.
You are welcome. I write a weekly column that appears in the Landmine as well as elsewhere. And yes, that is exactly the quote I had in mind when I said Begich is proposing to continue deep PFD cuts (the "most regressive tax ever proposed").
December 2, 2025 at 11:04 AM
You are welcome. I write a weekly column that appears in the Landmine as well as elsewhere. And yes, that is exactly the quote I had in mind when I said Begich is proposing to continue deep PFD cuts (the "most regressive tax ever proposed").
🤷 He (Begich) also wants to continue deep PFD cuts, "the most regressive [personal] tax ever proposed."
December 2, 2025 at 12:27 AM
🤷 He (Begich) also wants to continue deep PFD cuts, "the most regressive [personal] tax ever proposed."
As the originator, the chart uses 1984 as the starting point b/c that's as far back as the Census Bureau maintains the data. But the results are largely the same regardless of which subsequent year is used as the starting point. We used 2000 in this week's column. alaskalandmine.com/landmines/br...
Brad Keithley’s Chart of the Week: Alaska v. Alaskans
Recently, we were in a discussion in which a participant argued that there is no basis for concern about the Alaska economy (nor, by implication, about Alaska families). Their view was that, while it ...
alaskalandmine.com
November 26, 2025 at 10:21 AM
As the originator, the chart uses 1984 as the starting point b/c that's as far back as the Census Bureau maintains the data. But the results are largely the same regardless of which subsequent year is used as the starting point. We used 2000 in this week's column. alaskalandmine.com/landmines/br...
Do you know if there's a similar analysis for economic/fiscal policy?
November 20, 2025 at 7:26 PM
Do you know if there's a similar analysis for economic/fiscal policy?
As an option? Technically, it's feasible, but it's got a LOT of associated challenges, risks, and costs (not the least of which is the considerable distance out to a loading dock because of shallow water) that, if you can believe it, make it less attractive even than the pipeline.
August 17, 2025 at 8:28 PM
As an option? Technically, it's feasible, but it's got a LOT of associated challenges, risks, and costs (not the least of which is the considerable distance out to a loading dock because of shallow water) that, if you can believe it, make it less attractive even than the pipeline.
Ummmm, you see that watermark down in the lower right? It literally says "AI." It was some of Jeff's usual satire ...
August 4, 2025 at 1:42 AM
Ummmm, you see that watermark down in the lower right? It literally says "AI." It was some of Jeff's usual satire ...
Interestingly, you and David Eastman agree on that point. alaskabeacon.com/2024/01/18/a... ("During the debate that preceded the vote, Rep. David Eastman, R-Wasilla, said that based on the language of the Alaska Constitution, a vote on a veto override is required, not just optional.")
Alaska Legislature fails to override $87 million education funding veto | Alaska Beacon
State lawmakers now turn their attention to legislation that proposes a permanent increase to education funding.
alaskabeacon.com
June 14, 2025 at 7:36 PM
Interestingly, you and David Eastman agree on that point. alaskabeacon.com/2024/01/18/a... ("During the debate that preceded the vote, Rep. David Eastman, R-Wasilla, said that based on the language of the Alaska Constitution, a vote on a veto override is required, not just optional.")
"Balanced" deserves air quotes. alaskalandmine.com/landmines/br...
Brad Keithley’s Chart of the Week: The badly unbalanced “balanced budget”
Fiscal analysts use multiple lenses to evaluate whether a government budget is “balanced.” One is in an accounting sense of whether overall revenues equal overall spending. But that’s not the only len...
alaskalandmine.com
May 22, 2025 at 10:52 AM
"Balanced" deserves air quotes. alaskalandmine.com/landmines/br...
... by taking money from middle and lower-income Alaska families, making them poorer, and protecting the Top20%, non-residents and oil companies from having to contribute also, making them better off. alaskalandmine.com/landmines/br...
Brad Keithley’s Chart of the Week: The $100,000 Dividend
Last month we wrote a couple of columns on these pages discussing the Tax Avoidance Dividend (or TAD). The TAD is the flip side of the Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD). The PFD is the portion of Permanen...
alaskalandmine.com
May 21, 2025 at 2:49 AM
... by taking money from middle and lower-income Alaska families, making them poorer, and protecting the Top20%, non-residents and oil companies from having to contribute also, making them better off. alaskalandmine.com/landmines/br...
🤷 That's simple. They're being used to protect the Top20%, non-residents and the oil companies from paying a share of the increased costs of government. alaskalandmine.com/landmines/br...
Brad Keithley’s Chart of the Week: The $100,000 Dividend
Last month we wrote a couple of columns on these pages discussing the Tax Avoidance Dividend (or TAD). The TAD is the flip side of the Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD). The PFD is the portion of Permanen...
alaskalandmine.com
May 21, 2025 at 2:44 AM
🤷 That's simple. They're being used to protect the Top20%, non-residents and the oil companies from paying a share of the increased costs of government. alaskalandmine.com/landmines/br...
While more regressive than an income tax, no sales tax hits middle and lower income #AKfams harder than PFDcuts. (ISER's Berman: "PFD cuts are the MOST regressive tax ever proposed.") alaskalandmine.com/landmines/br...
Brad Keithley’s Chart of the Week: It’s all about the base
For some, the 2014 pop song “All About That Bass” is a long-forgotten “one-hit wonder.” For others, it’s an earworm – a recurring tune that occasionally pops up and sticks in your mind involuntarily. ...
alaskalandmine.com
May 2, 2025 at 11:19 PM
While more regressive than an income tax, no sales tax hits middle and lower income #AKfams harder than PFDcuts. (ISER's Berman: "PFD cuts are the MOST regressive tax ever proposed.") alaskalandmine.com/landmines/br...
A sales tax isn't even remotely as regressive as PFD cuts. An ultra broad based sales tax takes even less. And a flat tax takes much less than PFD cuts restore for 80% of #AKfams. alaskalandmine.com/landmines/br... #DoTheMath
Brad Keithley’s Chart of the Week: A relook at sales taxes
Over the years, we have been less than supportive of using a statewide sales tax to help address Alaska’s fiscal deficits. While certainly not as regressive as using cuts in the Permanent Fund Dividen...
alaskalandmine.com
April 13, 2025 at 4:34 AM
A sales tax isn't even remotely as regressive as PFD cuts. An ultra broad based sales tax takes even less. And a flat tax takes much less than PFD cuts restore for 80% of #AKfams. alaskalandmine.com/landmines/br... #DoTheMath
Oh, that's not accurate. We raise a significant share of revenue also from oil tax reforms.
I would be interested in seeing the numbers behind your proposed progressive income tax. As discussed in the column, because of the limited base one designed like the old one would require huge rates. #akleg
I would be interested in seeing the numbers behind your proposed progressive income tax. As discussed in the column, because of the limited base one designed like the old one would require huge rates. #akleg
April 12, 2025 at 6:04 PM
Oh, that's not accurate. We raise a significant share of revenue also from oil tax reforms.
I would be interested in seeing the numbers behind your proposed progressive income tax. As discussed in the column, because of the limited base one designed like the old one would require huge rates. #akleg
I would be interested in seeing the numbers behind your proposed progressive income tax. As discussed in the column, because of the limited base one designed like the old one would require huge rates. #akleg
🤷 The details are in the column, Dermot. There's even a chart that summarizes them and totals the numbers. I suppose I could repeat the entire column here, but it's only a 6-minute or so read ... and I take the time to read yours. #akleg
April 12, 2025 at 5:50 PM
🤷 The details are in the column, Dermot. There's even a chart that summarizes them and totals the numbers. I suppose I could repeat the entire column here, but it's only a 6-minute or so read ... and I take the time to read yours. #akleg
🤷 Like a newspaper editorial page, our columns are separate from other parts of the Landmine. Those who read them realize -and often criticize them - for diverging significantly from the opinions expressed elsewhere on those pages.
April 12, 2025 at 5:41 PM
🤷 Like a newspaper editorial page, our columns are separate from other parts of the Landmine. Those who read them realize -and often criticize them - for diverging significantly from the opinions expressed elsewhere on those pages.
We address the options - and $$- in detail here. We would raise about $500mil by closing the Hilcorp loophole and other oil tax reform. We raise the remainder through a combination of former Rep. Ben Carpenter's ultra broad sales tax and a flat tax. #akleg alaskalandmine.com/landmines/br...
Brad Keithley’s Chart of the Week: Revenues
Those who follow these columns know that we have been discussing for nearly all of the time we have been writing them the fiscal sinkhole into which the state gradually has been sliding over most of t...
alaskalandmine.com
April 12, 2025 at 5:26 PM
We address the options - and $$- in detail here. We would raise about $500mil by closing the Hilcorp loophole and other oil tax reform. We raise the remainder through a combination of former Rep. Ben Carpenter's ultra broad sales tax and a flat tax. #akleg alaskalandmine.com/landmines/br...
The Majority hasn't even introduced a basic bill to fix the Hilcorp Loophole, much less revise #OilTaxes or raise personal revenues in other ways than through PFDcuts ("the most regressive tax ever proposed"). I would suggest the problem starts with the Majority's failure to even try.
April 12, 2025 at 6:41 AM
The Majority hasn't even introduced a basic bill to fix the Hilcorp Loophole, much less revise #OilTaxes or raise personal revenues in other ways than through PFDcuts ("the most regressive tax ever proposed"). I would suggest the problem starts with the Majority's failure to even try.
🤔 Despite the extended rhetoric, in all fairness Rep. Jimmie, you, and the others in the House Majority just voted once again to protect the Top20%, #NonRez & #OilCos at the expense of middle & lower-income #AKfams. #AnotherSessionAnotherFail #akleg
April 12, 2025 at 5:11 AM
🤔 Despite the extended rhetoric, in all fairness Rep. Jimmie, you, and the others in the House Majority just voted once again to protect the Top20%, #NonRez & #OilCos at the expense of middle & lower-income #AKfams. #AnotherSessionAnotherFail #akleg
The deficit numbers are actually much worse if viewed from the perspective of current law. She only gets them as low as she does by assuming deep PFD cuts (ISER's Berman: "the most regressive tax ever") before even starting the discussion.
March 27, 2025 at 10:32 PM
The deficit numbers are actually much worse if viewed from the perspective of current law. She only gets them as low as she does by assuming deep PFD cuts (ISER's Berman: "the most regressive tax ever") before even starting the discussion.
AJOC has been reduced to reprints from the ADN. ABM is mostly puff pieces for the industry (it's advertisers). I haven't seen anything from Ava White that drills in on the financial side, but I'll try to be on the lookout.
March 23, 2025 at 7:39 PM
AJOC has been reduced to reprints from the ADN. ABM is mostly puff pieces for the industry (it's advertisers). I haven't seen anything from Ava White that drills in on the financial side, but I'll try to be on the lookout.