Making their result actionable requires the occurrence of 12 consecutive months above 1.5°C, a condition met in ERA5 and BEST observational datasets, but that has not been met based on the mean of multiple observational datasets (plot for consecutive months strictly > 1.5°C by @hoegner.bsky.social).

The IPCC AR6 flags “High Risks” at 1.5°C for unique systems (such as biodiversity) and extreme events. Floods in Brazil, Spain, and Kenya, mega-drought in the Amazon, tropical storms, and heatwaves in 2024 gave us a taste of these risks. We are not prepared for the climate risks at 1.5°C to unfold.

Through climate models, observations, and idealised experiments, we show that unless stringent climate mitigation is implemented, the first year above 1.5°C in 2024 signals that it is highly probable that Earth has already entered the 20-year period that *will* reach the 1.5°C Paris Agreement limit.

We are delighted to announce the "Compound weather and climate events" session at #EGU25!

We look forward to receiving your exciting abstracts!

@compoundnet.bsky.social

We find that 14–41% of the climate change contribution was due to warming-driven soil drying that occurred *before* the hydrological year of 2022, indicating the importance of considering lagged climate change effects to avoid underestimating drought risks. 4/n

Combining observations and climate models with hydrological and land-surface simulations, we show that Central-Southern Europe saw the highest total water storage deficit since satellite observations began in 2002, probably the most extreme soil moisture deficit in 60 years. 2/n

Do you remember the extreme #drought in Europe in 2022? Our
@naturegeosci.bsky.social paper shows that human-induced global warming contributed to 31% of the intensity, with 14–41% of such contribution due to warming-driven soil drying that occurred before 2022. rdcu.be/dXA1S 1/n

Here's what it would look like for global temperature (up to 2019) in 2d...

🔥 PhD position alert! 🌍 Are you interested in studying fire risk and its drivers in Europe under climate change via large datasets? Join our new research group on compound climate extremes!

Details & applications👇
recruitingapp-5128.de.umantis.com/Vacancies/28...