The jump in school age population between 2020 and 2023 is unbelievable, especially knowing we experienced a dramatic decline in enrollment for those years. Are the 1990-2020 numbers just from a different source with different methods than 2023?

The consultant looked at how we have more students per grade in high school than in younger grades and concluded our high school population will drop soon. But many use homeschool or private/charter at younger grades then come to MCCSC for high school.

According to the analyst, our decline in enrollment has consisted of a decline in white enrollment and an increase in black and Hispanic enrollment. This may be consistent with the idea that private schools are siphoning off more privileged kids.

Here’s another view of our recent enrollment and one model the analyst showed predicting where it will go from here.

If our enrollment is falling DESPITE increasing K12 population, I don’t think we should wring our hands about birth rates or housing affordability. Is there anything else that can drive this trend besides private and charter enrollment? The data in the report needs to be fleshed out more.

Here’s a zoomed-in view of the enrollment rise and then fall, shown as a blue line.

The report provided enrollment data back to 1990 (not the ‘60s as they said). Enrollment was pretty flat, but did gradually rise until 2020. This y axis is not the best for visualizing the trend, sorry.

To be clear, the analyst does show that affordability is an increasing issue, with this chart showing average housing unit value as red bars (right y axis), and median household income as a yellow line (left y axis). For 2013-2016 they increase together, but then home prices go up faster.

According to their data source, our school-age population has not yet started to decline. So the declining birth rate and declining affordability of housing are not sufficient to explain our dropping enrollment. It is clear there is another important factor.